Jarrod Bowen of West Ham, Xavi Simons of Tottenham, and Morgan Gibbs-White of Nottingham Forest have recently scored crucial goals for their respective teams.
Two down, one to go.
Burnley’s defeat against Manchester City confirmed their relegation from the Premier League, joining Wolves.
For several weeks, it appeared that Leeds, Nottingham Forest, West Ham, and Tottenham would be battling to avoid the final relegation spot.
However, following Sean Longstaff’s dramatic late equaliser at Bournemouth, Leeds have accumulated seven points from three matches to reach the coveted 40-point mark, leading many to believe they are safe from relegation.
“I am experienced long enough in this world, we will celebrate when it’s mathematically done. It’s too early,” Leeds boss Daniel Farke told BBC Match of the Day.
“We are on 40 points, seven games unbeaten in all competitions, so I am confident. Why should we lose the last four games?”
A victory over Championship-bound Burnley at Elland Road could secure Leeds’ Premier League status mathematically.
Until then, Farke remains cautious, and for the remaining three teams in contention, the relegation battle could extend to the final matchday…
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The jubilant celebrations after a 97th-minute equaliser underscored the significance of the point for the Leeds players at the Vitality Stadium.
The draw puts them nine points ahead of Tottenham in 18th place, a gap likely sufficient to ensure their Premier League survival.
According to the Opta Supercomputer, Farke’s team has a mere 0.21% chance of being relegated from their current position.
Mathematically possible, as the Leeds manager stated, but barring an improbable sequence of events, the Whites have likely done enough.
The news is also positive for Forest. Following their victory over Burnley, Opta estimates their relegation probability at just 4.27%.
The supercomputer suggests that the relegation battle is now primarily between West Ham and Tottenham for the unwanted 18th spot.
West Ham are given a 38.58% chance of finishing in the bottom three, while Tottenham are considered more likely to be relegated for the first time since 1977.
Roberto de Zerbi’s side are the 56.93% favourites to be relegated from here.
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Farke delighted with hard-fought point at Bournemouth
Tottenham boss De Zerbi expressed confidence in his team’s survival chances after Saturday’s draw with Brighton, asserting their ability to “win five games in a row” to conclude the season.
However, despite De Zerbi’s optimism, the team’s performance this season does not support such a claim.
Tottenham have failed to win any of their last 15 league matches, remaining winless in the top flight in 2026 and securing only two victories since 26 October.
They must defeat bottom-ranked Wolves on Saturday to avoid matching the club’s worst-ever winless league run, established 91 years ago between 1934 and 1935.
In contrast, Tottenham’s relegation rivals have been improving their form.
Nottingham Forest have secured two wins in their last three matches and are unbeaten in five, while West Ham have won two of their last five.
Zooming out slightly, West Ham have earned 19 points from their last 12 matches, Forest have secured 18 from their last 13, and Leeds have gained 19 from 15.
Since defeating Crystal Palace on 28 December, Tottenham have only accumulated six points from 15 matches.
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‘It will go all the way’ – Nuno on relegation battle after Palace draw
Each year when the fixtures are announced, it is often said that “it doesn’t matter, you play everyone twice.”
However, the timing of matches against specific teams can significantly impact a season-long campaign.
With five matches remaining, Tottenham will likely view their schedule, at least on paper, as favourable for their survival hopes.
Their next match is an away fixture against Wolves, whose relegation to the Championship was confirmed on Monday.
A home match against Leeds on 11 May is another opportunity for Tottenham, particularly if Leeds have already secured their safety.
Even a potentially challenging match against Champions League-chasing Aston Villa on 3 May is well-timed for Tottenham, as it falls between the two legs of Villa’s Europa League semi-final.
A visit to rivals Chelsea before hosting Everton on the final day is not a straightforward conclusion, as both teams are likely to be vying for European qualification.
However, given the tight nature of the relegation battle, all candidates will face similar challenges.
West Ham host Everton on Saturday before traveling to Brentford. The schedule becomes even more difficult with title-contenders Arsenal visiting the London Stadium on 10 May.
Despite Newcastle’s disappointing season, an away match at St James’ Park on the penultimate weekend is far from simple, and the home match against Leeds on the final day could be crucial.
Forest arguably face the most challenging final five matches, with away games against Chelsea and Manchester United in May—the former just three days before the second leg of Villa’s Europa League semi-final against Villa.
Home matches against Newcastle and Bournemouth on the final day could be vital, but securing a result at Sunderland on Friday would significantly ease the pressure on Vitor Pereira’s side before the remainder of the run-in.
Wild celebrations to verge of tears – time running out for Spurs
It has been 49 years since Tottenham were in the relegation zone after 33 league games, and in the 1976-77 season, they were unable to avoid relegation.
Considering that only Sheffield Wednesday, already relegated from the Championship, have a worse home record than Tottenham’s two wins in England’s top four tiers this season, significant improvements are necessary.
The statistics offer little encouragement for De Zerbi’s team. Only Derby (18) in 2007-08 and Sunderland (17) in 2002-03 had longer winless runs to start a calendar year than Tottenham’s current streak of 15—and both were relegated in those years.
Forest can take comfort in the fact that 36 points has been sufficient for survival in every Premier League season since 2015-16.
Even more encouragingly for the Whites, only six teams have been relegated with 39 points or more in a 38-game season, and not in the past 14 seasons—since Birmingham and Blackpool were both relegated with 39 points.
This year may be one where the traditional claim of 40 points needed for safety proves true, but West Ham know that sometimes even that isn’t enough.
The Hammers hold the unwanted record of the most points achieved by a relegated side – the 42 they mustered in 2002-03 was not enough to spare them from the drop.
No wonder Farke and Leeds are taken nothing for granted just yet.
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