“If I were a politician, I’d be concerned about a looming demographic time bomb. A significant portion of the voting population, those well into their 30s, feel they’ve been dealt a bad hand and are beginning to express their discontent through their votes.”
From the struggle to afford housing and manage student loan debt to the challenge of securing stable employment, a prominent voice within the youth sector is urging the government to urgently address the underlying issues facing young people.
Chief among these concerns is the fact that approximately one million young people are currently not engaged in employment, education, or training, a demographic often referred to by the acronym NEET.
This issue is not new. Over the years, numerous ministers have pledged decisive action to rectify what many consider a critical waste of potential.
However, with NEET figures on the rise and the public discourse surrounding welfare intensifying, the political stakes appear to be escalating.
Recent polling data indicates a surge in support for Reform UK and the Green Party among voters under 30.
According to an average of four polls conducted this autumn by the research group More in Common—each surveying approximately 2,000 individuals—the Green Party, led by Zack Polanski, holds the highest approval rating among young women.
Among young men, the data reveals a tie between Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and the Green Party, each garnering 20% of the vote, trailing behind Labour’s 30%. Notably, Reform UK leads among young men without university degrees.
Luke Tryl of More in Common suggests that the prevailing pressures could be “prompting young people to lose faith in mainstream politics, leading them to embrace parties like Reform UK and the Greens, which advocate for radical change.”
He further warns that, “Mainstream parties would be naive to assume that these voters will simply return when they get older.”
Is the government cognizant of this issue? Josh Simons, a government minister, recently expressed his views on X, using candid language.
Simons acknowledged the potential for a “shit” life in the UK, citing economic insecurity and the financial strain of raising children in one’s 20s, 30s, and 40s.
While Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden is not expected to adopt the same bluntness when he joins us in the studio tomorrow to discuss strategies for addressing the increasing number of young people who are not employed, a Cabinet minister conceded that young people “get a raw deal – and youth unemployment is the number one issue – not just for that generation but for their parents and grandparents”.
The statistics paint a bleak picture. Between July and September of this year, 946,000 young people were not employed or enrolled in education, representing more than one in ten individuals aged 16-24.
This demographic is more likely to be composed of young men, with higher rates observed in the North East and East of England. Over half report experiencing a health condition, and approximately one in five report a mental health condition.
There exist myriad reasons for a young person to become “economically inactive”.
The rising cost of education may be a deterrent. The stagnant economy has resulted in a tepid labor market for young workers. The pandemic has also had a profound effect.
Unemployment is generally on the rise, and tax reforms coupled with minimum wage increases have made it more expensive for businesses to hire, which many fear disadvantages young people
Rates of ill health and mental health problems are also rising.
Separately, Wes Streeting has called for a formal review of the evidence to see whether over-diagnosis is a real issue, after an interview with us earlier this year when the health secretary said he thought mental health problems were over-diagnosed, now suggesting he’d been too quick to judge.
However, the number of young people reporting health as a barrier to employment has surged upward.
Improving the prospects for young people struggling to find their place in society is only one aspect of tackling the gaps between generations.
Whether it’s the cost of housing, childcare, student debt, disaffection and frustration among all kinds of younger voters is widespread.
The nature of work has also become more insecure, particularly for people starting out, with 16-24-year-olds nearly six times more likely to be on a zero-hours contract.
Given the party’s historic belief in the welfare state it is not easy for Labour politicians to say this out loud, but sometimes, as one minister admits privately, “if you can get more money by claiming you are sick, it is logical to do so”.
The benefits system is incredibly complicated, but it can throw up perverse incentives not to look for work.
Although the government had to back down from changes to some benefits in the face of angry backbenchers, the former Work and Pensions Secretary, Liz Kendall, did introduce the idea of “right to try”, where people can try out a job, without the fear of losing their income, and having to reapply for benefits if it doesn’t work out.
Ministers are reluctant to fuel an ugly conversation about who is “deserving” in society.
One government source says: “The left have a very paternalistic view that people on welfare can’t look after themselves, the right thinks those people will never make anything of themselves. We have to reject both of those views.”
But with the costs of welfare spiraling, and the sheer number of young people not gainfully employed or learning, there is a political, financial, and perhaps even moral pressure on the government to act.
The former minister, Alan Milburn, has been asked to try to get to the bottom of what is really going on. His review will be published next year. But in the next few months the government will introduce the Youth Guarantee, which will give young people who haven’t had a job or been studying for 18 months guaranteed paid work.
Pat McFadden will reveal more of the details of where and when it will start when we speak to him tomorrow.
Whether the plans will match the scale of the problem is a key question. One minister worries that government is not willing to be radical enough, telling me, “We don’t look like we are interested in ripping up the system that doesn’t work for young people”.
Trying to improve the prospects for young people struggling to find their place in society is only one aspect of tackling the gaps between generations.
One youth charity boss suggests that “It’s like a guilty secret, the country knows that young people are getting a raw deal but nobody is doing anything about it.”
Though ministers may deny it, there appears to be a tangible political risk for those who elect to ignore this challenge—and, conversely, a potential opportunity for those who choose to confront it head-on.
Lead image: PA Media
BBC InDepth is the home on the website and app for the best analysis, with fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and deep reporting on the biggest issues of the day. You can now sign up for notifications that will alert you whenever an InDepth story is published – click here to find out how.
The supermarket chair quit the Conservative Party to throw his support behind Sir Keir Starmer.
Ben Small is named one of the Lions Club of Jersey’s Senior Young Ambassadors.
The conference will take place in 2026 after being cancelled for a year in light of the Supreme Court’s gender ruling.
Hundreds of GPs in England tell the BBC they are also worried about a lack of help for patients.
The prime minister was in Cardiff to launch the UK government’s child poverty strategy.