“Were I a politician, I would be deeply concerned about a looming demographic challenge. A significant portion of the voting population, now well into their 30s, feels disenfranchised and is demonstrating this discontent through their voting choices.”
From the struggle to afford adequate housing, to the burden of student debt, and the pursuit of meaningful employment, a leading voice in the youth sector is urging the government to address the complex issues confronting young people.
Chief among these concerns is the alarming statistic of approximately one million young people who are neither employed, nor in education or training – a demographic often referred to by the acronym NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training).
While not a novel issue, successive administrations have pledged decisive action to rectify what many perceive as a significant waste of potential.
However, with NEET figures on the rise and political discourse surrounding welfare intensifying, the potential political repercussions are mounting.
Recent polling data indicate strong support for Reform and the Green Party among voters under 30.
An average of four polls conducted this autumn by the research group More in Common – each surveying approximately 2,000 individuals – reveals the Green Party, under Zack Polanski, as the most favored choice among young women.
These polls also show Reform and the Green Party tied at 20% among young men, trailing Labour’s 30%. Notably, Reform leads among young men without a university degree.
Luke Tryl of More in Common suggests that, given the prevailing pressures, “it’s hardly surprising that these young people are losing faith in mainstream politics and instead gravitating towards parties like Reform and the Greens, which promise radical change.”
“Mainstream parties would be mistaken to believe that these voters will automatically return to them as they age,” he cautions.
Is the government acknowledging the problem? Minister Josh Simons recently offered a candid assessment on the matter.
In a post on X, Simons acknowledged the potential for a “shit” life in the UK due to economic insecurity and the financial strain of raising children in one’s 20s, 30s, and 40s.
It is unlikely that Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden will employ such blunt language when he joins us in the studio tomorrow to discuss strategies for reducing the number of young people who are not working.
However, one cabinet minister conceded that “young people are indeed getting a raw deal, and youth unemployment is a paramount concern – not only for that generation but also for their parents and grandparents.”
The statistics paint a concerning picture. Between July and September of this year, 946,000 young people were neither employed nor in education, representing over one in ten of all 16-24 year olds.
Young men are disproportionately affected, and rates are higher in the North East and East of England. More than half report a health condition, and approximately one in five report a mental health condition.
Numerous factors contribute to a young person’s “economic inactivity,” to use the technical term.
The rising cost of education may deter some individuals. The sluggish economy has resulted in a less robust job market for young workers. The pandemic has also had a profound impact.
Unemployment is generally on the rise, and tax changes and minimum wage increases have made hiring more expensive for businesses, which many fear disproportionately impacts young people’s prospects.
Rates of ill health and mental health problems are also increasing.
Separately, following an earlier interview in which the Health Secretary suggested that mental health problems were being over-diagnosed, Wes Streeting now indicates he may have been too quick to judge.
He has now called for a formal review of the evidence to determine whether over-diagnosis is a legitimate concern. However, the number of young people reporting that health issues are preventing them from working has surged.
Improving opportunities for young people struggling to find their place in society is only one aspect of addressing intergenerational disparities.
The cost of housing, childcare, student debt, and general disaffection are widespread issues among younger voters.
The nature of employment has also become more precarious, particularly for those starting their careers, with 16-24 year olds nearly six times more likely to be on zero-hours contracts.
Given the Labour Party’s historical commitment to the welfare state, it is not easy for its politicians to articulate publicly the uncomfortable truth that, as one minister privately admits, “if you can earn more by claiming illness benefits, it is a rational choice to do so.”
The benefits system is notoriously complex and can create perverse incentives not to seek employment.
While the government was forced to backtrack on certain benefit changes due to backbench opposition, former Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall introduced the concept of “right to try,” allowing individuals to trial a job without jeopardizing their income or having to reapply for benefits if it proves unsuitable.
Ministers are hesitant to ignite a divisive debate about who is “deserving” in society.
One government source states: “The left tends to adopt a paternalistic view, believing that welfare recipients are incapable of self-reliance, while the right often dismisses them as lacking potential. We must reject both of these perspectives.”
However, with rising welfare costs and a significant number of young people neither employed nor in education, the government faces political, financial, and potentially even moral pressure to act.
Former minister Alan Milburn has been tasked with investigating the underlying causes of this issue. His report is expected next year. In the coming months, the government will launch the Youth Guarantee, which will provide guaranteed paid work to young people who have been unemployed or out of education for 18 months.
Pat McFadden will reveal further details regarding the program’s launch and implementation when we speak to him tomorrow.
Will these plans adequately address the scale of the problem? One minister expresses concern that the government is unwilling to be sufficiently radical, stating, “We don’t appear interested in overhauling a system that is failing young people.”
Improving opportunities for young people struggling to find their place in society is only one aspect of addressing intergenerational disparities.
A youth charity leader suggests: “It’s a dirty secret; the country knows that young people are getting a raw deal, but no one is doing anything about it.”
Ministers would likely refute this claim, but there is an apparent political risk for those who opt not to confront this issue, and potentially an opportunity for politicians who do.
Lead image: PA Media
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