“Were I a politician, I’d be concerned about a looming demographic crisis. A significant portion of the voting population, those well into their 30s, feel disenfranchised and are beginning to express their discontent at the ballot box.”
From the struggle to secure affordable housing to grappling with student loan debt and the pursuit of suitable employment, a leading voice within the youth sector is urging the government to address the multifaceted challenges confronting young people.
Of particular concern is the estimated one million individuals who are neither employed, nor in education or training, a demographic often referred to by the acronym NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training).
This is not a new issue. Over the years, numerous ministers have pledged decisive action to remedy what many view as a regrettable waste of potential.
However, with NEET figures on the rise and a charged political discourse surrounding welfare, the political stakes are potentially escalating.
Recent polling data indicates a strong level of support for Reform UK and the Green Party among voters under 30.
According to an average of four polls conducted this autumn by the research group More in Common, which surveyed approximately 2,000 individuals each time, the Green Party, led by Zack Polanski, is the most popular choice among young women.
The polls suggest that Reform UK and the Green Party are tied at 20% among young men, trailing behind Labour’s 30%. Nevertheless, Reform UK holds a lead among young men without university degrees.
Luke Tryl of More in Common observes that, given the prevailing pressures, “it’s hardly surprising that these young people are losing faith in mainstream politics and gravitating towards parties like Reform UK and the Greens, which promise a complete overhaul.”
He cautions that “mainstream parties would be mistaken to assume that these voters will simply return as they get older.”
Does the government grasp the gravity of the situation? One minister, Josh Simons, articulated his views on the matter this week with unmistakable candor.
In a post on X, Simons acknowledged that life in the UK can be “shit” due to economic instability and the financial burdens associated with raising children in one’s 20s, 30s, and 40s.
It is unlikely that Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden will express himself so bluntly when he joins us in the studio tomorrow to discuss strategies for reducing the growing number of unemployed young people.
However, one cabinet minister concedes, “It is undeniable that young people are facing a disadvantage, and youth unemployment is a paramount concern, not only for that generation but also for their parents and grandparents.”
The statistics are indeed alarming. Between July and September of this year, 946,000 young people were not working or studying, representing over one in ten of all individuals aged 16-24.
Young men are disproportionately affected compared to young women, and rates are higher in the North East and East of England. Over half of this demographic report having a health condition, and approximately one in five have a mental health condition.
Numerous factors can contribute to a young person becoming “economically inactive,” to use the technical term.
The rising cost of education may be deterring some individuals. The economy has remained relatively stagnant for years, resulting in a less robust labor market for young workers. The pandemic has also had a significant impact.
Unemployment is generally on the rise, and tax changes combined with increases in the minimum wage have made it more costly for businesses to hire, potentially disproportionately affecting young people’s job prospects.
Furthermore, rates of both physical and mental health problems have been increasing.
Separately, following an earlier interview with us during which the Health Secretary suggested that mental health problems were being over-diagnosed, Wes Streeting now indicates that he may have been too hasty in his assessment.
He has now called for a formal review of the evidence to determine whether over-diagnosis is a legitimate concern. Nevertheless, the number of young people who report that health issues are preventing them from working has surged.
Improving the prospects for young people who are struggling to find their place in society is only one component of addressing the disparities between generations.
The high cost of housing and childcare, student loan debt, and widespread discontent among young voters are all significant challenges.
Job security has also declined, particularly for those starting out, with 16-24-year-olds being nearly six times more likely to be employed on zero-hours contracts.
While it may be difficult for Labour politicians, given their party’s historical commitment to the welfare state, one minister privately acknowledges that “if claiming sickness benefits provides a greater income, it is a rational decision.”
The benefits system is remarkably complex and can inadvertently disincentivize job seeking.
Although the government was compelled to retract certain benefit changes in response to criticism from backbenchers, former Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall introduced the concept of “right to try,” which allows individuals to trial a job without jeopardizing their income or having to reapply for benefits if it does not work out.
Ministers are hesitant to ignite a divisive debate over who is “deserving” within society.
One government source stated: “The left often holds a paternalistic belief that welfare recipients are incapable of self-sufficiency, while the right tends to assume that they will never achieve anything worthwhile. We must reject both of these viewpoints.”
However, with welfare costs escalating and a significant number of young people neither employed nor in education, the government faces political, financial, and potentially even moral pressure to act.
Former minister Alan Milburn has been tasked with conducting an in-depth review to ascertain the underlying issues. His report is expected to be published next year. In the meantime, the government will soon introduce the Youth Guarantee, which will provide guaranteed paid work for young people who have been unemployed or out of education for 18 months.
Pat McFadden will provide further details regarding the timeline and implementation of the Youth Guarantee when we speak with him tomorrow.
Will these plans be commensurate with the scale of the problem? One minister expressed concern that the government is unwilling to pursue sufficiently radical solutions, stating, “We do not appear to be genuinely interested in overhauling the system that is failing young people.”
Improving the prospects for young people who are struggling to find their place in society is only one component of addressing the disparities between generations.
According to a youth charity executive: “It’s almost a guilty secret; the country recognizes that young people are receiving a raw deal, but no one is taking any meaningful action.”
Ministers would undoubtedly refute this claim, but those who choose to ignore the situation face a clear political risk, while those who confront it may uncover a significant opportunity.
Lead image: PA Media
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