Coco Gauff, the world number two in women’s tennis, is the highest-ranked player to be ousted from this year’s Wimbledon.
The early stages of Wimbledon have been marked by a series of unexpected upsets.
As of the conclusion of Thursday’s second-round matches, a record-breaking 36 seeded players had been eliminated, surpassing the previous high of 35 at the same stage of the 2020 French Open.
These unprecedented exits have significantly altered the landscape of both the men’s and women’s singles draws, with notable departures including French Open champion Coco Gauff and men’s third seed Alexander Zverev.
A record total of eight top-10 seeded players were eliminated in the first round, marking the highest number at any major tournament since the Open era began in 1968.
Only one of the top-five seeded women’s players, world number one Aryna Sabalenka, has advanced to the third round, a feat achieved only once before in the Open era.
For only the third time in the past 25 years, four of the top-10 ranked players exited in the first round of a Grand Slam, followed by the second-round defeat of British fourth seed Jack Draper.
What factors could explain these surprising results?
Players faced challenging conditions as Wimbledon experienced its hottest opening days on record, with temperatures exceeding 30C on Monday and Tuesday.
While ice packs, cold towels, and ample water were provided to help players cope, some reported struggling, and Briton Cameron Norrie acknowledged the weather as “a bit of a shock to the system.”
In addition to the heat, its impact on the grass courts and their interaction with the balls has been a source of frustration for several players.
Canadian 27th seed Denis Shapovalov, who was eliminated in the first round, commented, “The balls are the worst, the grass tour has turned into a joke. This isn’t grass anymore; the court is slower than a clay one.”
Slower courts allow players more time to react, leading to longer rallies and more physically demanding matches.
While Wimbledon’s head groundsman Neil Stubley conceded that the heat has contributed to slower courts as the dry grass grips the ball more, he disputed criticisms of the bounce.
What about the balls themselves? Has there been any change?
Following her impressive victory over former champion Marketa Vondrousova, British number one Emma Raducanu discussed the influence she felt the balls were having.
“You get a little bit extra with the new balls [but] I feel like once they’re a few games or a few long rallies in, these Slazenger balls really fluff up quite quickly and get heavy and slow,” she noted. “I think it benefits the bigger hitters because they have time to load and give it some.”
Raducanu’s coach Mark Petchey has previously suggested that heavier tennis balls are affecting her ability to compete with the game’s power hitters.
According to Wimbledon, the ball’s specifications have remained unchanged since 1995, though players should expect the ball to feel lighter and faster on a warm, dry day compared to heavier and slower on a cold, damp day.
One persistent factor is the rapid turnaround and short duration of the grass court season.
It spans less than 50 days, commencing for some before the conclusion of the French Open in early June and culminating with Wimbledon on 13 July.
Gauff participated in just one grass court tournament, losing in the first round of the Berlin Open, before Wimbledon, having won the French Open on 7 June.
“I think this Slam, out of all of them, is the most prone to having upsets because of how quick the turnaround is from clay,” the American second seed explained.
Wimbledon tournament director Jamie Baker told BBC Sport: “Definitely, the players spend less time on grass than they do on other surfaces. I think the big macro picture is just the calendar is too long and the players are playing too much.”
Concerns about the demanding schedule have long been voiced by prominent players.
Norway’s Casper Ruud criticized the ranking system earlier this year, describing it as “a rat race,” while Australian world number nine Alex de Minaur attributed his early French Open exit to “feeling burned out.”
Following her second-round defeat, women’s fourth seed Jasmine Paolini expressed the need to “reset” mentally, adding, “I feel a little bit tired right now. It was two intense months before here.”
On the same subject, Raducanu said: “It’s a mentally really challenging sport. What I’ve found [useful] is trying to surround yourself with good people, trying to win the day and focus on the process as much as possible. It’s really difficult to take your joy from the results because it’s so up and down. It’s a rollercoaster.”
German Zverev, the highest-ranked casualty in the men’s draw thus far after a five-set loss to the 72nd-ranked Arthur Rinderknech, spoke candidly about feeling “in a hole,” expressing feelings of isolation on the court and mental struggles since his Australian Open final loss to Jannik Sinner in January.
Could the sight of other top seeds being eliminated instill fear in others, while simultaneously boosting the confidence of lower-ranked players?
American sixth seed Madison Keys, who is still in contention after recovering from a set down in her opening match, noted: “I think when you are sitting and watching everyone kind of fall, it adds a little bit of stress to the situation. I was pretty close in my first round, so I feel like I dodged a bullet a little bit.”
In addition to the short grass season and grueling schedule, American former player Tracy Austin emphasized the increasing competitiveness in both the men’s and women’s games, with lower-ranked players believing they can challenge the top seeds.
Regarding the heightened competition, Frances Tiafoe, the 12th seed who was defeated by Norrie in the second round, stated: “You have [unseeded] floaters and some young guys playing well. The game is just really tough, it has incredible depth right now. If you’re not ready to go, you’re going to lose. It seems like [some of the seeded] guys weren’t ready to go.”
Former British number one Jo Durie added: “I think everybody in the locker room is thinking, ‘I have got a chance at this tournament’. I really do think more seeds are going to fall.”
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In a quarter of the women’s draw that included the eliminated Paolini and Chinese fifth seed Zheng Qinwen, American Amanda Anisimova may have gained the most advantage.
The 13th seed would not face anyone ranked higher than 30th seed Linda Noskova until the semi-finals, where she could potentially meet world number one Sabalenka, although the unseeded Naomi Osaka, a four-time major winner, remains in her quarter.
In the men’s singles, Russian Karen Khachanov can reach the quarter-finals without facing another seed, following the defeats of Zverev, ninth seed Daniil Medvedev, 16th seed Francisco Cerundolo, and former runner-up Matteo Berrettini.
Norrie could also advance to the quarter-finals without encountering another seed, with Brazilian teenager Joao Fonseca or qualifier Nicolas Jarry awaiting in the fourth round if the Briton can first overcome Mattia Bellucci.
Between 2002 and 2019, men’s singles seedings were determined by a surface-based formula reflecting recent grass court achievements, before aligning with the world rankings used for the women’s draw.
When asked whether the number of early upsets this year warrants a return to that system, former world number five Durie responded: “I do think there should be a consideration because grass is really unlike all the other surfaces. I think it was a good thing at the time. It would be interesting if they brought that back.”
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