Scientists suggest that a volcanic eruption around 1345 may have initiated a chain of events culminating in the Black Death, Europe’s most devastating pandemic.
Evidence gleaned from tree rings indicates the eruption triggered a significant climate shock, setting in motion a series of occurrences that ultimately introduced the disease to medieval Europe.
According to this theory, the volcanic eruption’s ash and gases precipitated drastic temperature declines, leading to widespread crop failures.
In an effort to avert famine, densely populated Italian city-states were compelled to import grain from regions surrounding the Black Sea, inadvertently transporting plague-carrying fleas that introduced the disease to Europe.
Experts note that this “perfect storm” of climate upheaval, famine, and trade serves as a reminder of how diseases can emerge and propagate in an increasingly globalized and warming world.
Dr. Ulf Büntgen of the University of Cambridge stated, “While the confluence of factors contributing to the Black Death appears rare, the probability of zoonotic diseases emerging under climate change and translating into pandemics is likely to increase in a globalized world.”
He added, “This is especially relevant given our recent experiences with Covid-19.”
The Black Death ravaged Europe in 1348-49, resulting in the deaths of up to half the population.
The disease was caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, transmitted by wild rodents, such as rats, and fleas.
The outbreak is believed to have originated in Central Asia, spreading globally through trade routes.
However, the precise sequence of events that led to the disease’s arrival in Europe, resulting in millions of deaths, has been a subject of extensive scholarly investigation.
Researchers from the University of Cambridge and the Leibniz Institute for the History and Culture of Eastern Europe (GWZO) in Leipzig have now elucidated a previously missing piece of the puzzle.
They analyzed tree rings and ice cores to reconstruct climatic conditions during the period of the Black Death.
Their data suggests that volcanic activity around 1345 precipitated a sharp decline in temperatures over consecutive years, due to the release of volcanic ash and gases that diminished sunlight.
This, in turn, led to widespread crop failures across the Mediterranean region. To prevent starvation, Italian city-states engaged in trade with grain producers in the Black Sea region, inadvertently facilitating the deadly bacterium’s entry into Europe.
Dr. Martin Bauch, a historian of medieval climate and epidemiology from GWZO, described the convergence of climatic events and a “complicated system of food security” as a “perfect storm.”
“For more than a century, these powerful Italian city states had established long-distance trade routes across the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, allowing them to activate a highly efficient system to prevent starvation,” he said. “But ultimately, these would inadvertently lead to a far bigger catastrophe.”
The findings are published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment.
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