The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) has pioneered the use of NASA’s nighttime light (NTL) satellite data to assess economic activity across regions and cities in Uzbekistan, marking a first. This analysis incorporated artificial intelligence learning techniques.
This approach is recognized internationally as an independent and rapid tool for gauging prosperity and evaluating localized development.
The findings demonstrate a strong correlation between satellite data and official statistics. From 2020 to 2024, NTL data indicates that Uzbekistan’s gross regional product (GRP) per capita increased by 63.5%, from $2,011 to $3,287. This aligns closely with the official growth figure of 59.4%.
The most significant growth was observed in the city of Tashkent, where GRP per capita rose by $3,200 over five years, reaching $7,200. In specific districts such as Mirabad, Yakkasaray, and Yunusabad, this figure exceeds $9,000, nearly double the average for major cities in the country.
In 2024, the highest GRP per capita among cities was recorded in Navoi ($8,300), Zarafshan ($6,800), Samarkand ($5,700), Kokand ($5,600), Andijan ($5,100), Yangiyul ($5,000), and Karshi ($4,800).
High GRP levels were also noted in smaller to mid-sized cities like Termez ($4,500), Urgench, Margilan, Kattakurgan ($4,300), and Chirchik ($4,000).
The analysis also revealed substantial growth in other regions, including the Navoi (+$1,500), Namangan (+$1,400), Fergana, and Samarkand regions. High levels of economic activity were similarly observed in smaller to mid-sized cities such as Zarafshan, Karshi, Chirchik, Margilan, and Termez.
Furthermore, the use of nighttime light data facilitated the assessment of urbanization at the district level. From 2020 to 2024, the number of areas with high levels of nighttime light, where NTL values exceeded 10 (characteristic of urban agglomerations), increased from 21 to 26.
Conversely, the number of sparsely lit rural areas decreased from 129 to 102. This indicates that 27 districts are transitioning towards urban development patterns.
“International experience suggests that urban development, increased economic activity, and the expansion of the service sector are key indicators of successful structural transformation. Similar processes are currently underway in countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan.
In Uzbekistan, despite the persistently moderate levels of per capita income, recent years have seen sustained urban development and growth in business activity,” the statement noted.
The application of modern methods, including satellite data analysis, provides new opportunities for monitoring and more accurate strategic planning.