After thirty consecutive months without rainfall, residents of San Francisco de Conchos, located in the northern Mexican state of Chihuahua, have gathered to implore divine intervention.
On the shores of Lake Toronto, the reservoir sustained by the state’s pivotal La Boquilla dam, a priest leads local farmers on horseback, alongside their families, in prayer. The arid ground beneath them was once submerged, now exposed due to the critically low water levels.
Among those participating is Rafael Betance, who has voluntarily monitored La Boquilla for the state water authority for 35 years.
“This entire area should be underwater,” he laments, gesturing towards the parched expanse of exposed white rocks.
“The last time the dam reached full capacity, causing a minor overflow, was in 2017,” Mr. Betance recalls. “Since then, the water level has decreased annually.”
“We are currently 26.52 meters below the high-water mark, leaving the dam at less than 14% of its total capacity.”
The local community’s appeal to the heavens for rain is understandable. Yet, few anticipate relief from the severe drought and the oppressive 42°C (107.6°F) heat.
Now, a protracted dispute with Texas over these dwindling resources threatens to escalate.
Under the terms of a 1944 water-sharing agreement, Mexico is obligated to send 430 million cubic meters of water annually from the Rio Grande to the United States.
This water is channeled through a system of tributary waterways into shared dams, overseen and operated by the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC), which regulates water-sharing between the two nations.
In return, the US provides a significantly larger allocation (nearly 1.85 billion cubic meters annually) from the Colorado River to supply the Mexican border cities of Tijuana and Mexicali.
Mexico is currently in arrears, having failed to meet its water delivery obligations for much of the 21st century.
Following pressure from Republican lawmakers in Texas, the Trump administration cautioned Mexico that water from the Colorado River could be withheld unless it fulfilled its obligations under the 81-year-old treaty.
In April, former US President Donald Trump accused Mexico of “stealing” water via his Truth Social account and threatened escalating measures, including “TARIFFS, and maybe even SANCTIONS,” until Mexico delivers its owed water to Texas. However, he did not specify a deadline for such actions.
In response, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum acknowledged Mexico’s shortfall while adopting a more conciliatory approach.
Since then, Mexico has transferred an initial 75 million cubic meters of water to the US through their shared Amistad Dam, located along the border, but this is only a fraction of Mexico’s outstanding debt, estimated at roughly 1.5 billion cubic meters.
Cross-border water sharing disputes can be highly volatile: in September 2020, clashes between Mexican citizens and the National Guard at La Boquilla’s sluice gates resulted in two fatalities as farmers attempted to prevent water redirection.
Amidst the severe drought, the prevailing sentiment in Chihuahua is that “you can’t take from what isn’t there,” according to local expert Rafael Betance.
However, this sentiment provides little solace to Brian Jones as he struggles to irrigate his crops.
A fourth-generation farmer in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, Mr. Jones has only been able to cultivate half of his farmland for the past three years due to insufficient irrigation water.
“We’ve been battling Mexico as they have not been living up to their part of the deal,” he stated. “All we’re asking for is what’s rightfully ours under the treaty, nothing extra.”
Mr. Jones also disputes the severity of the situation in Chihuahua. He believes that in October 2022, the state received more than enough water to share but released “exactly zero” to the US, accusing his neighbors of “hoarding water and using it to grow crops to compete with us.”
Farmers on the Mexican side interpret the agreement differently. They maintain that they are only obligated to send water north when Mexico can satisfy its own needs, arguing that Chihuahua’s ongoing drought means no surplus exists.
Beyond water scarcity, disputes also arise regarding agricultural efficiency.
Walnut trees and alfalfa are primary crops in Chihuahua’s Rio Conchos Valley, both requiring substantial irrigation—walnut trees needing an average of 250 liters daily.
Traditionally, Mexican farmers have simply flooded their fields with water from irrigation channels. A drive through the valley reveals walnut trees standing in shallow pools, water flowing from open pipes.
The concern from Texas is evident: this practice is wasteful and easily avoidable with more responsible and sustainable farming methods.
As Jaime Ramirez walks through his walnut groves, the former mayor of San Francisco de Conchos demonstrates how his modern sprinkler system ensures adequate watering throughout the year, avoiding the waste of this precious resource.
“With sprinklers, we use approximately 60% less water than with flooding,” he states. The system also allows for less frequent watering, especially beneficial when the Rio Conchos’ level is too low for local irrigation.
Mr. Ramirez readily admits that some of his neighbors are less conscientious. As a former local mayor, he urges understanding.
Some have not adopted the sprinkler method due to the initial setup costs, he explains. He has attempted to demonstrate that it is more economical in the long run, saving on energy and water expenses.
Mr. Ramirez insists that farmers in Texas must also recognize that their counterparts in Chihuahua face an existential threat.
“This is a desert region, and the rains have not arrived. If the rains fail again this year, agriculture will cease to exist next year. All available water will need to be conserved for human consumption,” he warns.
Many in northern Mexico believe the 1944 water-sharing treaty is outdated. Mr. Ramirez suggests it may have been adequate eight decades ago but has failed to adapt to contemporary conditions or properly account for population growth and the impacts of climate change.
Across the border, Texan farmer Brian Jones maintains that the agreement has stood the test of time and should still be honored.
“This treaty was signed when my grandfather was farming. It has been through my grandfather, my father, and now me,” he explains.
“Now we are seeing Mexico not comply. It is very angering to have a farm where I am only able to plant half the ground because I don’t have irrigation water.”
He adds that Trump’s more assertive stance has given local farmers “a pep in our step.”
Meanwhile, the drought has not only impacted farming in Chihuahua.
With Lake Toronto’s water levels critically low, Mr. Betance notes that the remaining water is heating up unusually quickly, potentially creating a disaster for the marine life that sustains a once-thriving tourism industry.
Mr. Betance states that the valley’s outlook has never been this dire during his years of meticulously recording the lake’s fluctuations. “Praying for rain is all we have left,” he concludes.
Additional reporting by Angélica Casas.
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