For 33 years, Ryan Davies was employed at the Port Talbot steelworks, where, from his initial day, speculation swirled about the plant’s potential closure.
Such rumors, involving new ownership and possible layoffs, frequently circulated among colleagues but often proved unfounded.
“You learned to take it with a grain of salt,” he reflects.
The work was demanding, marked by the clamor of metal, the shrill sounds of steam, and the ever-present threat of gas leaks. Summer conditions inside the plant were “excruciatingly” hot, with shifts extending to 12 hours.
Yet, Mr. Davies deeply valued his role, as being a steelworker was integral to his sense of self.
However, a few years ago, a new rumor surfaced: Tata Steel, the plant’s Indian owners, planned to shut down its blast furnaces. This time, the speculation proved accurate.
The two furnaces were decommissioned in July and September of the previous year, part of a restructuring effort that ultimately eliminated approximately 2,000 jobs, half of the workforce.
“It signaled the end—the culmination of a century of steel production in Port Talbot,” states Mr. Davies, who accepted voluntary redundancy in November.
At 51, he is now uncertain about his future and the implications of these changes for his wife and 19-year-old daughter. Moreover, he holds profound concerns for Port Talbot.
Steel is intertwined with the town’s identity. The bronze-hued chimneys dominate the skyline, immediately visible upon approach from the M4 motorway.
According to Mr. Davies, steel was “the very foundation of Port Talbot’s prosperity.”
Similar narratives resonate across a handful of British communities that have historically depended on steel manufacturing for employment.
Besides Port Talbot, these include areas such as Redcar in North Yorkshire and Scunthorpe in Lincolnshire.
Around 1970, the UK steel industry reached its zenith, producing over 26 million tonnes of steel annually and employing more than 320,000 individuals.
Subsequently, a protracted decline ensued. Current production is approximately four million tonnes per year, with fewer than 40,000 employed in the sector.
Recent years have been especially challenging for the industry, due in part to escalating energy costs. The ongoing uncertainty regarding tariffs on steel exports to the U.S. exacerbates the situation.
This has fueled anxiety and led to the loss of orders from U.S. companies, according to executives in the steel industry.
While tariffs on automobiles were reduced from 27.5% to 10%, and those on aerospace products were eliminated, a 25% tariff on UK steel and aluminum exports to the U.S. remains in effect.
British officials affirm their commitment to achieving zero steel tariffs, with ongoing negotiations. Nevertheless, this situation contributes to a sense of apprehension in steel towns.
The question then becomes: what will happen if UK steel manufacturing approaches extinction? And what future awaits communities like Port Talbot and Redcar, whose identities are deeply rooted in their industrial heritage?
To glimpse a possible post-steel future, one might consider Redcar on the northeast coast—a region sometimes referred to as Britain’s “rust belt” due to the prevalence of abandoned industrial sites.
The steel industry in Teesside emerged in the mid-19th century, eventually employing over 40,000 individuals. It has long been a source of local pride that the Sydney Harbour Bridge was constructed using Teesside steel.
However, along with other steel towns, Teesside suffered during the latter half of the 20th century. Inexpensive imports from China generated fierce competition. The UK shifted from a manufacturing-based economy to one focused on services, and towns such as Redcar were left behind.
In 1987, Margaret Thatcher’s visit to a derelict wasteland, captured in a photograph of the “wilderness,” became a symbol of industrial decline.
More recently, the steel industry has struggled due to the UK’s relatively high energy prices, which make heating furnaces costly.
Some analysts also suggest that the UK’s commitment to decarbonization is increasing costs for steel producers.
In 2015, the Thai owners of Redcar’s steelworks ceased operations. Sue Jeffrey, then the Labour leader of Redcar Council, recalls witnessing the blast furnace in operation on one of its final days.
“It was among the most devastating events I have ever been involved in,” she recounts.
Approximately 2,000 workers at the site lost their jobs, with thousands more affected throughout the steel supply chain.
Local businesses also suffered; bed and breakfasts lost revenue from contractors who no longer visited the area.
The council established a task force to assist former steelworkers in finding new employment, achieving some success.
According to a council report published in 2018, the vast majority of the more than 2,000 steelworkers who initially applied for benefits after the plant closed were no longer receiving them within three years.
However, Ms. Jeffrey contends that many individuals were unable to find positions that utilized their industrial skills.
Some became dog walkers and decorators, while others became chimney sweeps. Many, she reports, accepted substantial pay cuts.
This narrative has been echoed in other steel towns, with laid-off workers forced to pursue new career paths.
Some have embraced the change.
Following his redundancy, Ryan Davies decided to pursue his lifelong passion: street art. He now operates a business creating murals of ladybirds, ducks, and mythical creatures.
Although his income is lower, he finds the work rewarding. “I’ve been a far happier person since I left,” he says.
“When you have a gray wall and you paint something colorful, it brings joy to people.”
However, not everyone shares this positive outlook.
Cassius Walker-Hunt, 28, opened a coffee shop in Port Talbot last year after taking redundancy from the town’s steelworks, using a £7,500 loan from Tata Steel to purchase professional coffee-making equipment.
“I’ve been working around the clock just to survive,” he says.
The job security that steelmaking once provided is one reason unions advocate for preserving the industry.
Alun Davies, national secretary at the Community Union, the largest union for steelworkers, believes governments should intervene as necessary to maintain blast furnace operations.
This is precisely what occurred earlier this year in Scunthorpe, the last location in the UK where virgin steel is produced from melting iron ore in blast furnaces.
The plant has faced repeated crises. The previous government took control when it was on the verge of collapse and—following £600 million in UK taxpayer support—sold it to the Chinese company Jingye.
It is now back under government control, after Jingye failed to order essential supplies to keep the furnaces running.
Scunthorpe’s future is uncertain. Some have called for the Labour government to fully nationalize the site.
However, Jonathon Carruthers-Green, an analyst at steel consultancy MEPS International, suggests that ministers will be wary of this option due to the potentially substantial costs and complications.
Alternatively, the plant could be sold to another foreign buyer.
But, Mr. Carruthers-Green asks, “Who will come forward to manufacture steel in the UK, given the higher energy costs and the various challenges related to decarbonization?”
Scunthorpe resident Sean Robinson told the BBC earlier this year that he fears the town will become another steel “ghost town.”
Overarching all of this is the question of the impact of Trump’s tariffs on UK steel.
The UK was exempted from a surprise tariff increase from 25% to 50% last month, and trade officials are optimistic that they will not be affected by the new deferred date of August 1, when the White House intends to implement its most sweeping tariffs on US trading partners.
However, steel companies remain frustrated that the original plan to reduce tariffs on UK steel to zero has not yet been agreed upon.
There are two sticking points. According to steel industry sources, US trade negotiators are overwhelmed with the volume of work involved in negotiating with the rest of the world simultaneously.
The second reason steel was not approved alongside cars and planes is the concern in the US that Tata, the UK’s largest steel producer, no longer manufactures steel from scratch.
Having closed its blast furnaces, the company no longer “melts and pours” steel but instead imports virgin steel from India for modification in the UK, leading to questions in the US about whether the product qualifies as UK steel.
Even if a zero-tariff deal is reached on steel, it is likely to include quotas, limiting future export growth to the US.
There is, however, a larger, more fundamental question facing steel towns: in a post-industrial age, what is their purpose?
Should they strive to reignite their declining steel trade or transition to a new industry of the future?
Some trade union leaders maintain that steel towns can remain steel towns. With appropriate investment in green technologies, Mr. Davies of the Community Union believes a new, cleaner steel industry could emerge.
“Imagine Port Talbot without any steelworkers—it’s unthinkable,” he says.
Others find this view unrealistic. Paul Swinney, a director at the Centre for Cities think tank, argues that romantic notions surrounding steel impede sensible decision-making.
“I think it’s wrapped up in what some people perceive as being ‘good jobs,'” he says. “You did a hard day’s graft, got your hands dirty, and felt like you’d contributed. [But that framing] just isn’t helpful.”
As he sees it, “there’s no plausible route forward which is going to have more of these kinds of jobs. “The UK economy has changed,” he asserts.
Instead, he believes towns like Port Talbot and Redcar should focus on industries of the future.
Redcar is already moving in this direction. The derelict land that once housed the town’s steelworks is now the site of an ambitious redevelopment project led by the South Tees Development Corporation.
The old steelmaking structures have been demolished to make way for renewable energy and carbon capture and storage facilities.
The managers of the Teesworks project report having created more than 2,000 “long-term” jobs, with plans to create 20,000 in total.
However, a central government review last year criticized “inappropriate decisions and a lack of transparency” at the corporation, and investigated why private property developers had acquired a significant portion of the site.
Tees Valley Conservative Mayor Lord Houchen, who chaired the corporation at the time, said he “welcomed” the panel’s recommendations to improve transparency.
Speaking on local radio in May, he stated that the Teesworks project has attracted “billions of pounds of investment for the region.”
Mr. Swinney of Centre for Cities argues that we need to think even more expansively. Rather than attempting to recreate their industrial past, steel towns may benefit from focusing on white-collar, knowledge-economy jobs, which have contributed to the relative prosperity of many city centers.
The key is to improve transportation from steel towns to cities, where office jobs tend to be concentrated, he says.
However, former steelworker Ryan Davies dismisses the idea of steelworkers seamlessly transitioning to office jobs.
“When you come from an environment of 33 years of steelworking, going into an office is such a radical shift,” he observes.
There are additional challenges: individuals in steel towns tend to have fewer formal qualifications, which are often essential for office work.
For instance, approximately 37% of working-age adults in Port Talbot have the equivalent of one year of university education, compared to a UK average of 49%.
Ultimately, the future of these towns may depend on the broader fate of the UK’s steel industry. And there is some reason for optimism.
The government maintains that Scunthorpe and the rest of the UK steel industry have a future, particularly given the significant increase in spending on a steel-intensive defense industry.
Mr. Carruthers-Green suggests that the UK’s decarbonization efforts could ultimately benefit steel production.
Increased investment in green energy will drive further demand for high-quality steel used in products such as wind turbines. This, in turn, creates more energy, lowering prices for steel producers.
“The hope is that we can enter a virtuous cycle,” he adds.
Gareth Stace, director general of the trade group UK Steel, is more cautious. He describes a “worst-case” scenario in which the UK “continue[s] to make less and less and less.”
As he puts it, “We don’t go out of business in one fell swoop.” Instead, there is a gradual decline.
Yet, he also believes that with tailored policies, steel could be revived even under these conditions. He calls for action on energy prices, as well as procurement policies that encourage government departments to purchase more steel from the UK rather than from abroad.
“If it works,” he says, “for the first time in a very, very long time, we’ll actually have some hope for the future.”
Additional reporting: David Macmillan
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