The state pension triple lock is projected to cost three times more than initial estimates by the end of the decade, according to the government’s official forecaster.
Introduced in 2011, the triple lock guarantees that the state pension increases annually in line with the highest of inflation, wage growth, or 2.5%.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts the annual expense of the triple lock policy to reach £15.5 billion by 2030.
Overall, the OBR has stated that the UK’s public finances are in a “relatively vulnerable position” due to the impact of recent government reversals on planned spending cuts.
The recent reversal of welfare bill reforms, coupled with the restoration of winter fuel payments for a majority of claimants, have contributed to a continued increase in government debt, the report indicates.
The OBR stated, “Efforts to place the UK’s public finances on a more sustainable footing have met with only limited and temporary success in recent years. In the aftermath of these shocks, debt has continued to rise and borrowing has remained elevated because governments have reversed plans to consolidate the public finances.”
“Planned tax increases have been reversed, and, more significantly, planned spending reductions have been abandoned.”
On Tuesday, the cost of government borrowing over a 10-year period was 1.2% higher than Monday’s close, following the release of the OBR’s report.
It had been steadily increasing in recent days after surging in response to a tearful appearance by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in parliament, which triggered speculation about her future, and the government’s subsequent climbdown on welfare reform.
When asked whether the government was disregarding “alarm bells” raised by the OBR, a Downing Street spokesperson replied, “No, I don’t accept that.”
“What we recognise is that the public finances need to be brought back under control,” he stated.
“We’ve had a decade of the UK being exposed to global risks more and more and to interest rate fluctuations, and that is why we have non-negotiable fiscal rules, and that is our focus.”
The OBR reported that the cost of the state pension has risen steadily over the past eight decades, from approximately 2% of the UK economy to its current level of 5%, amounting to £138 billion.
It is projected to increase to 7.7% of the economy by the early 2070s.
Spending on the state pension has consistently increased, according to the OBR, due to the triple lock mechanism and a growing population above the state pension age.
The OBR added: “Due to inflation and earnings volatility over its first two decades in operation, the triple lock has cost around three times more than initial expectations.”
Richard Hughes, Chair of the OBR, noted that the triple lock “is one of a series of age-related pressures that pushes public spending upwards steadily over a number of years.”
“When you project trends in both pension spending and health and other age-related spending forward, the UK public finances are in an unsustainable position in the long-run,” he stated.
“The UK cannot afford the array of promises that are displayed to the public if you just if you leave those unchanged based on a reasonable assumption about growth rates in the economy and in tax revenues.”
The UK’s state pension represents the second-largest item in the government budget, following healthcare.
In 2011, the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition introduced the triple lock to safeguard the value of the state pension against increases in the cost of living or the incomes of working individuals.
Since its implementation, the non-earnings-linked element of the lock has been triggered “in eight of the 13 years to date”, the OBR noted.
This was primarily because inflation “has turned out to be significantly more volatile” than initially anticipated.
In April 2025, the earnings link led to a 4.1% increase in the state pension, making it worth:
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has stated that a Labour government would maintain the triple lock until the end of the current Parliament.
However, both before and after this manifesto commitment, there has been considerable debate regarding the cost of the triple lock and whether it remains justified.
Last week, the influential Institute for Fiscal Studies, an independent economic think-tank, suggested that the triple lock be scrapped as part of a broader overhaul of the pension system.
The IFS argued that the state pension should rise in line with prices, but its cost should be linked to a target level of economy-wide average earnings.
Pensioner advocacy groups assert that many older individuals face high living costs and require the protection afforded by the triple lock to prevent further financial hardship, particularly given that the actual amount paid is far from the most generous state pension in Europe.
The digital bank has been fined £21m by the City regulator for anti-fraud failures.
Residents are celebrating after Newcastle City Council announced a U-turn on refunded energy bills.
Towcester Community Larder is handing out the Silverstone provisions at a pop-up event.
Parents say the sale is great value especially as children grow so quickly out of expensive uniforms
Christians Against Poverty in Epsom and Ewell say they are seeing a big demand for support services.