The recent British defence review, tasked with formulating recommendations within a 2.5% GDP defence spending constraint, reveals a clear need for increased funding to achieve its ambitious goals of modernizing the armed forces and ensuring combat readiness.
While welcoming the government’s aspiration to reach 3% spending by 2034, the review suggests a more accelerated approach given the current geopolitical climate. Several NATO allies already allocate over 5% of their GDP to defence.
Sources indicate that even the planned construction of 12 new attack submarines, as outlined in the review, necessitates a minimum increase to 3% of GDP in defence spending. Key points from the government’s defence strategy are available here.
Ministers express confidence in achieving the 3% target during the next parliamentary term, although concrete timelines and guarantees remain absent.
Citing the war in Ukraine as evidence of escalating threats and rapid technological advancements, the review emphasizes the urgent need for comprehensive transformation within Britain’s armed forces and national security apparatus.
Russia is identified as an immediate threat, while China is characterized as a sophisticated and persistent challenger. Iran and North Korea are classified as regional destabilizing forces. The report highlights the unpredictable nature of these threats and the accelerating pace of change as generators of significant new vulnerabilities for Britain.
The review advocates for a revolutionary modernization of the British military, transitioning towards novel combat strategies. General Sir Richard Barrons, a contributing author, describes this as the most significant shift in UK defence in 150 years.
Future enhancements will include expanded drone and autonomous systems deployments, leveraging software and AI to expedite battlefield decision-making, mirroring current trends observed in Ukraine. Traditional assets such as tanks, fighter jets, and warships will continue to play a crucial role, but will be increasingly integrated with autonomous systems.
The review emphasizes a “whole-of-society” approach, urging the government to develop comprehensive war transition plans. A proposed “defence readiness bill” would empower the government to better mobilize industry and reserves as needed.
Enhanced protection of critical national infrastructure, including undersea pipelines and cables, is also highlighted, with the review stressing the necessity of a renewed focus on home defence and resilience.
The Labour party notes that this marks the first defence review in 25 years not resulting in a reduction of overall armed forces personnel. Despite this, the regular army has experienced a substantial decrease in troop numbers, currently standing at just over 71,000, below the target of 73,000, compared to over 100,000 in 2010.
The review underscores the need to address recruitment, retention, and morale challenges within the armed forces, recommending an increase in the size of the regular army. The defence secretary announced a planned increase to 76,000, but this is contingent upon the next election, lacks specific timelines, and is currently unfunded.
The review presents a compelling case for increased investment in defence and national security, leading many to conclude that substantial increases in defence spending are necessary. To date, however, these increases have been incremental rather than transformational, lagging behind the significantly greater investments made by other NATO allies in response to growing global threats.