Australia’s defense minister recently faced a concerning development stemming from the re-election of President Donald Trump: a review of the AUKUS pact.
This trilateral agreement between the US, UK, and Australia would provide Australia with advanced nuclear submarine technology in exchange for increased cooperation in policing the Asia-Pacific region.
The White House announced its intention to ensure the pact aligns with the president’s “America First” agenda, raising concerns in Australia about the commitment of its key ally amidst rising global tensions.
Sam Roggeveen of the Lowy Institute expressed doubts about the US’s unwavering commitment to Australia’s security.
While ostensibly beneficial to Australia, with a projected value of $239 billion USD, the AUKUS agreement involves sharing sensitive US and UK nuclear submarine technology.
This represents a significant upgrade for Australia’s military capabilities, enabling longer-range operations and strikes.
Historically, arming Australia has been viewed by Washington and London as crucial for maintaining regional stability in the Asia-Pacific.
However, under Trump’s increasingly isolationist foreign policy, the perceived benefits for the US have diminished.
Under Secretary of Defense Policy Elbridge Colby, a former AUKUS critic, will lead the review, aiming to ensure the agreement meets “America First” criteria.
These criteria include demands for increased allied defense spending and prioritization of US domestic needs, reflecting the Trump administration’s past frustrations with perceived insufficient contributions from allies.
The Australian government maintains a composed stance, describing the review as a normal process for a new administration. Defense Minister Richard Marles expressed confidence in the pact’s continuation.
Despite official optimism, the review has generated anxiety in Canberra. Euan Graham of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute highlighted the broader context fueling concerns.
Growing unease exists in Australia regarding US reliability, particularly given President Trump’s past statements and actions.
The imposition of tariffs on Australian goods earlier this year further eroded confidence, prompting Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to criticize the US’s actions.
Albanese awaits a meeting with President Trump at the G7 summit, while former Prime Ministers offer varying perspectives. Scott Morrison downplayed the review, while Malcolm Turnbull expressed concerns about the deal’s potential collapse.
Paul Keating, a proponent of closer China ties, suggested the US might be inadvertently rescuing Australia from a flawed agreement.
The AUKUS review underscores ongoing concerns about Australia’s reliance on the US. The Greens called for an independent foreign policy.
While the US might ultimately recommit, the uncertainty has exacerbated internal disagreements in Australia. The possibility remains that the US could significantly alter the deal.
A potential failure to deliver the planned Virginia-class submarines could leave Australia with an outdated fleet for two decades, jeopardizing its defense capabilities.
While complete US withdrawal from AUKUS is not widely predicted, concerns linger about the US’s commitment to countering China in the Pacific. Roggeveen noted the disparity between US rhetoric and actions.
Should the agreement fail, Australia possesses alternative options, although a complete collapse would necessitate a reevaluation of its defense strategy.
Roggeveen emphasizes Australia’s geographic advantages and capacity for self-defense, even without the AUKUS submarines.
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