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The Trump administration is spearheading an ambitious, though contentious, peace initiative aimed at resolving the protracted conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, a situation that also involves neighboring Rwanda.
These mediation efforts are notable given DR Congo’s significant mineral wealth, a nation at the heart of Africa. The US seeks to secure resources crucial for powering its IT and AI sectors, a supply chain largely dominated by China.
It is anticipated that US President Donald Trump will host DR Congo’s Félix Tshisekedi and Rwanda’s Paul Kagame in the coming weeks to finalize a peace agreement, which he has lauded as a “glorious triumph.” This agreement aims to bolster US investment in the region.
Prof Alex de Waal, executive director of the US-based World Peace Foundation, remarked to the BBC that the Trump administration is advocating for “a new model of peace-making, combining a populist performance with commercial deal-making.”
“Trump has employed this strategy in Ukraine as well. His objectives include securing personal acclaim, boosting his political standing, and acquiring minerals that align with America’s interests,” Prof De Waal stated.
He further noted that “in DR Congo, China has already secured access to many of the minerals, placing the US in a position of playing catch-up.”
He suggested that US companies have traditionally been wary of investing in DR Congo due to security concerns and the ethical dilemmas associated with “blood minerals,” which finance rebellions. However, this could change as the Trump administration implements its peace model.
Prof De Waal posited that this approach could extend to other conflict-ridden states like Sudan, where the Trump administration, alongside Arab nations such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt, is expected to engage in mediation efforts following the failure of prior initiatives.
He also acknowledged that the Trump administration’s peace model should not be dismissed outright, especially if it leads to a cessation of hostilities that have resulted in thousands of deaths and the displacement of millions in eastern DR Congo over the past three decades.
“Trump has the capacity to bring the involved parties to the table and instigate change,” Prof De Waal commented.
However, Prof Hanri Mostert, a mineral law academic at the University of Cape Town, South Africa, conveyed to the BBC that DR Congo “risked compromising sovereignty over its minerals.”
She cautioned that DR Congo could find itself bound by long-term deals in exchange for ambiguous security assurances.
Prof Mostert likened this to the “resource-bartering” agreements pursued by China and Russia in several African nations.
She cited Angola as an example, where China constructed infrastructure in exchange for oil.
“Even with rising oil prices, Angola was unable to secure greater value,” Prof Mostert stated.
The US State Department reported in 2023 that DR Congo possesses approximately $25 trillion (£21.2trn) in mineral reserves.
These reserves include cobalt, copper, lithium, manganese, and tantalum, all essential for producing electronic components used in computers, electric vehicles, mobile phones, wind turbines, and military equipment.
“For what duration will DR Congo be required to supply its cobalt to US investors? Will it be 20 or 50 years? What is the price of peace?” Prof Mostert questioned.
DR Congo’s government spokesperson, Patrick Muyaya, confirmed to the BBC’s Newsday program in March that the country aimed to provide the US with “critical minerals” in exchange for a security agreement.
The M23 rebel group initiated a significant offensive earlier this year, seizing vast areas of eastern DR Congo and smuggling minerals across the border into Rwanda, as UN experts reported earlier this month.
These minerals were then blended with Rwandan production, and “their subsequent export to downstream actors reached unprecedented levels,” the UN experts added.
Rwanda denies accusations of supporting the M23, despite UN evidence suggesting the presence of thousands of Rwandan soldiers in DR Congo.
In an apparent effort to address mineral smuggling, the US-brokered peace deal between DR Congo and Rwanda includes provisions for a “regional economic integration framework,” still to be negotiated, between the two nations.
This framework is intended to “ensure illicit economic pathways are blocked” and create “mutually beneficial partnerships and investment opportunities” for “greater prosperity, especially for the region’s population.”
“We’re securing a significant portion of the mineral rights from the Congo as part of this agreement for the United States,” Trump stated prior to the peace deal signed by representatives of both governments on 27 June in Washington.
Bram Verelst, a DR Congo researcher at the South Africa-based Institute for Security Studies, told the BBC that the US initiative is operating concurrently with another led by Qatar, a close US ally.
Mr. Verelst explained that the US is primarily focused on the regional dimension, while Qatar’s focus is on domestic issues between DR Congo’s government and the M23 rebel group, which has established its own administration in the east after capturing the regional capital, Goma.
Prof Jason Stearns, a Canada-based political scientist specializing in the region, told the BBC that Qatar, like other oil-rich Gulf states, is expanding into Africa “to project power, influence, and also to seek economic opportunities.”
He added that Qatar became involved in mediation efforts at Rwanda’s request, which perceived the US as favoring DR Congo, an allegation Washington denies.
Prof Stearns noted that Qatar has “massive” economic interests in Rwanda, citing the Gulf state’s construction of a new multi-billion dollar airport in Kigali and its negotiations to acquire a 49% stake in the national airline.
He explained that while the US and Qatar are collaborating closely, having two separate processes is not ideal because “you don’t want to end up in a situation where there is a peace deal between DR Congo and Rwanda, but Rwanda then says: ‘We don’t control the M23’, and the M23 continues escalating [the conflict] in eastern DR Congo.”
“It’s therefore crucial that the two processes are closely coordinated, given the close links between the actors,” Prof Stearns added.
Under the peace deal, DR Congo and Rwanda agreed to launch a “security co-ordination mechanism” within 30 days of the 27 June agreement.
Mr Verelst indicated that a ceasefire was expected to commence on Tuesday, followed by the DR Congo government and the M23 signing a comprehensive peace agreement by 18 August, building upon the previously negotiated “declaration of principles.”
Onesphore Sematumba, an analyst with the DR Congo-based International Crisis Group (ICG), noted that the US and Qatar are achieving deals in “record time” since Trump’s ascent to the US presidency in January.
Mr. Sematumba highlighted that their intervention followed various Africa-led mediation efforts that had “failed to get the parties to sign even a single document” since 2022.
“Regional players lack the necessary leverage to influence Kigali and Kinshasa,” he added.
“However, the path from signing an agreement to achieving peace can be long, and it will be long in this case,” Mr Sematumba cautioned.
A key question remains whether the M23 will relinquish the territory under its control, as demanded by Tshisekedi’s government.
Mr. Sematumba indicated that the M23 had agreed to “state authority” being established across DR Congo; however, the rebels have also stated they would not give up “a single centimeter” of land.
“Personally, I believe the transition should be gradual, and for certain areas, there should be some form of co-management. But everything will depend on the mediators’ tact and their ability to break the ice,” Mr Sematumba added.
He said the success of the peace initiative also hinges on what the agreement calls the “lifting of defensive measures” by Rwanda, which is widely interpreted to mean the withdrawal of its troops from eastern DR Congo.
While Rwanda denies backing the M23, it states its intention to eradicate the FDLR, a militia originating from those who carried out the 1994 genocide in Rwanda and subsequently fled into DR Congo. Rwanda has accused the Congolese army of collaborating with the FDLR.
The peace deal stipulates that the FDLR should be “neutralized,” although this has been attempted multiple times over the past three decades.
“For Rwanda, the neutralization of the FDLR is a precondition for the withdrawal of its forces, while DR Congo argues that the two must be achieved simultaneously,” Mr Sematumba pointed out, emphasizing that mediators must find a resolution as these issues have historically led to the failure of previous peace initiatives.
“Simply by observing the different interpretations given by the parties to the signed texts, you can anticipate the challenges that lie ahead,” Mr Sematumba concluded.
Prof Mostert concurred that diplomacy alone cannot achieve peace and that a broader initiative is necessary.
“Peace is built by transforming pain. This requires more than diplomacy; it requires dialogue, decentralized participation, and the dignifying of people’s experiences,” she stated.
“That is why I believe it is important that the dealmakers and the lawmakers remain aware of historical traumas, including decades of resource exploitation,” Prof Mostert added.
Therefore, if Donald Trump aims to sustain peace long enough for US companies to profit, he may need to maintain pressure for an extended period.
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