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John Swinney and Donald Trump have historically held divergent views on a spectrum of critical issues. However, a significant shift has occurred in their relationship.
On Wednesday, the First Minister of Scotland is scheduled to attend a State banquet at Windsor Castle, extending honors to the visiting US President.
Just six months prior, the prospect of the SNP leader participating in President Trump’s second state visit to the UK seemed improbable.
In early March, Mr. Swinney deemed the visit “unthinkable,” citing the Oval Office incident involving Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky.
While President Trump has since resumed the US supply of weaponry to Ukraine, concerns persist regarding his unwavering commitment to defending the nation against Russian aggression.
Mr. Swinney also voiced strong opposition to President Trump’s plan to develop Gaza’s coastline into a resort reminiscent of the Middle Eastern Riviera, asserting that it would constitute “ethnic cleansing.”
Despite these prior criticisms, he is now poised to join Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch at the Windsor banquet.
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey is boycotting the event in protest of US policy concerning Gaza, and Scottish Greens co-leader Ross Greer has publicly urged Mr. Swinney to join the boycott.
Mr. Swinney will be the sole devolved First Minister in attendance. The Northern Ireland executive will be represented by DUP Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly.
Eluned Morgan, the Labour First Minister of Wales, has respectfully declined the King’s invitation to preside over tributes to a late political colleague in Cardiff.
Nigel Farage of Reform UK has not received an invitation.
The question remains: What factors have precipitated this apparent shift in Mr. Swinney’s approach?
When queried about this during a news conference in Edinburgh last week, his response was notably ambiguous.
“We’ve just got to get on with the world as we see it and as it is in front of us,” he stated.
This statement came shortly after his return from the United States, where he was granted unusual access to the Oval Office to directly advocate to President Trump for the reduction or elimination of US import tariffs on Scotch whisky.
This underscores a pragmatic approach by the First Minister, who has evidently decided to engage with the US President when opportunities arise to potentially influence his decisions, particularly when the Scottish economy stands to benefit.
This strategic engagement does not preclude Mr. Swinney from voicing concerns about issues such as Ukraine and Gaza, although greater diplomacy may be necessary in his future interventions.
Sir Keir Starmer has similarly adopted this approach, successfully securing lower tariffs for UK products entering the US market compared to those faced by other nations, including EU member states.
UK negotiators have been proactively working to secure further trade concessions ahead of the state visit, and Mr. Swinney has capitalized on the opportunity to contribute to these efforts on behalf of the Scotch whisky industry.
Given that trade is typically the purview of the UK government, not the Scottish government, the question arises as to how Mr. Swinney has managed to position himself at the center of these discussions.
Donald Trump previously had a contentious relationship with Alex Salmond during his tenure as First Minister, primarily due to the Scottish government’s support for offshore wind energy.
A pivotal moment in the evolving relationship with the Trump family occurred on Thursday, March 13, during a meeting between Mr. Swinney and President Trump’s son, Eric.
The meeting was kept confidential, and I happened to observe the First Minister hurrying down a back staircase to exit Holyrood after question time that day.
He provided no indication of his destination, the reason for his haste, or why he was avoiding the usual route that would have taken him past a group of reporters seeking comment.
This meeting was arranged at the behest of the Trump Organization, which owns two golf resorts in Scotland: Turnberry in Ayrshire and Balmedie in Aberdeenshire.
Both parties characterized the discussion as business-related and maintained that political topics were not broached, although the boundaries between these two spheres have become increasingly blurred since President Trump’s return to office.
Reportedly, the two most significant words uttered during Eric Trump’s meeting with the First Minister at his official residence in Edinburgh were “thank you.”
Mr. Swinney thanked the Trump family for their investment in Scotland, a gesture that reportedly surprised the Trump team, as they claimed no one in the Scottish government had previously expressed such sentiments.
Just a few months prior, Eric Trump had labeled Mr. Swinney “nasty” for endorsing Kamala Harris in the US presidential election campaign.
It appeared that these differences could now be set aside, paving the way for a renewed relationship.
It is worth noting that when the Trump Organization initially sought to develop the protected sand dunes of the Menie estate in Aberdeenshire, it was Mr. Swinney who granted them planning permission, overriding local objections.
He had previously been an ally and could potentially be one again.
There is no indication that the Trump Organization has requested any specific favors from the Scottish government.
However, it is a documented fact that Scottish ministers allocated public funds to support a golf tournament held at Trump International, as the Aberdeenshire business is officially known.
This announcement coincided with Donald Trump’s visit to his Scottish golf resorts in July, which included a dinner with both the Prime Minister and the First Minister in Aberdeenshire.
Mr. Swinney had a breakfast meeting with the President the following morning before attending the opening of a new Trump golf course, where Donald Trump praised him as a “terrific guy.”
During this visit, Mr. Swinney stated that he took the opportunity to express concerns regarding the impact of US tariffs on the whisky industry.
He reportedly overheard the President remark upon his arrival in Scotland that he was unaware that whisky was an issue, despite assurances from the UK government that it was on their trade agenda.
Suspecting that steel and pharmaceuticals were higher on the UK’s list of priorities, Mr. Swinney made a point of advocating for the whisky industry directly to the President.
He may have been somewhat disappointed when President Trump downplayed the extent of their discussion while speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on the flight back to America.
However, that was not the end of their conversation regarding whisky.
The Scottish government followed up through US diplomats, and Mr. Swinney decided to fly to Washington to lobby further, accepting an invitation to present his case directly to President Trump in the White House.
He engaged in a 50-minute conversation with the most influential political leader in the Western world.
None of his predecessors as First Minister have been granted that amount of face time. Henry McLeish, from the Labour party, is the only previous holder of the office to have been granted a courtesy call to the Oval Office.
This privileged access was facilitated by the then UK ambassador in Washington, Lord Peter Mandelson, before revelations of his past friendship with Jeffrey Epstein led to his downfall.
While President Trump’s Scottish heritage may have initially opened doors for Mr. Swinney, the First Minister stated that he did not rely on sentimentality but instead presented President Trump with a potential “win-win” business proposition.
The proposal suggests that by easing tariffs on Scotch whisky, he would not only alleviate the burden on Scotland’s national beverage but also stimulate demand in Scotland for used bourbon casks from Kentucky.
A significant portion of whisky is matured in these second-hand barrels, and US distillers are collaborating with the Scotch Whisky Association to advocate for a special trading arrangement: zero tariffs on Scotch entering the US and no tariffs on bourbon or used casks entering the UK.
Mr. Swinney’s lobbying on this matter could also prove to be a political win-win for him.
If President Trump agrees to a deal, Mr. Swinney can claim a share of the credit. Conversely, if a deal fails to materialize, Mr. Swinney can argue that the UK government failed to secure an agreement that he had set up.
If there is any internal dissent within the SNP regarding his efforts to court President Trump, it has not yet surfaced. One party insider, who is typically cautious about President Trump, described Mr. Swinney as having played an “absolute blinder.”
A former Conservative adviser commented that Mr. Swinney’s approach was “smart politics.”
It is noteworthy that the First Minister was able to develop this strategy seemingly unnoticed by UK Labour ministers, without any apparent challenge.
They effectively enabled him to outmaneuver them.
Peter Kyle, the new UK Business Secretary, was in Washington discussing tariffs the day before John Swinney’s visit; however, his department struggled to issue a statement for several days.
It is possible that the administration was preoccupied with the reshuffle following the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner or the unfolding crisis surrounding Lord Mandelson.
Ultimately, Douglas Alexander, the new Scottish Secretary, asserted on air that the UK government had been “thinking, working, talking and negotiating about whisky for many weeks and months.”
He contended that whisky was “very high” on the list of priorities for the UK as it seeks further trade concessions from the US and cautioned Mr. Swinney against “playing politics.”
While there is no certainty that whisky will receive a special deal or that any announcement will be made during President Trump’s state visit, the industry has sensed in recent weeks that a more favorable agreement could be “deliverable.”
They would certainly raise a glass to that outcome and allow the politicians to continue their debate over who most effectively championed Scotch whisky’s cause.
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