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Imagine a scenario where a U.S. President could, with the flick of a switch, shut down Europe’s internet.
While it may seem improbable, even outlandish, this possibility has been under serious consideration within tech industry and policy circles recently. Rising tensions with Washington, D.C., have amplified concerns about the European Union’s reliance on American technology.
At the heart of this concern lies the fact that three U.S. giants – Google, Microsoft, and Amazon – provide 70% of Europe’s cloud computing infrastructure, the foundation upon which many online services are built.
The question arises: could an unpredictable U.S. leader weaponize this situation should relations significantly deteriorate, perhaps by ordering these companies to cease services in Europe?
“Critical data would become inaccessible, websites would go dark, and essential state services, such as hospital IT systems, would be thrown into chaos,” warns Robin Berjon, a digital governance specialist advising EU policymakers.
He emphasizes the importance of taking concerns about a potential U.S. “kill switch” seriously. “It’s hard to say how much trouble we would be in.”
Microsoft, Google, and Amazon maintain that they offer “sovereign” cloud computing solutions designed to safeguard EU clients’ data and prevent such a scenario. The BBC has reached out to the U.S. Treasury Department for comment.
Concerns about the lack of “digital sovereignty” in Europe, where U.S. firms dominate not only cloud computing but also hardware, satellite internet, and now artificial intelligence, have long persisted.
Even the region’s primary mobile operating systems – Apple and Android – and payment networks – Mastercard and Visa – are American.
These fears intensified in May when it was revealed that Karim Khan, the chief prosecutor at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Netherlands, lost access to his Microsoft Outlook email account following sanctions imposed by the White House.
The ICC had issued arrest warrants for top Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, related to their roles in the Israel-Gaza conflict – actions Mr. Trump deemed “illegitimate.”
Khan has since temporarily recused himself pending the conclusion of a sexual misconduct probe against him.
Microsoft asserts that it “at no point” ceased or suspended services to the ICC, though it maintained contact with the ICC “throughout the process that resulted in the disconnection.”
Since this incident, digital sovereignty has become a priority in Brussels, and some public entities are exploring alternatives to U.S. providers.
But is weaning themselves off U.S. technology a realistic prospect?
Digital sovereignty is broadly defined as a governing body’s ability to control data and technology systems within its borders.
One challenge lies in the limited availability of comparable alternatives.
Europe does have its own cloud computing providers, such as France’s OVHCloud, Germany’s T-Systems, or Delos.
However, they represent a small fraction of the market and lack the scale and breadth of capabilities, according to Dario Maisto, a senior analyst at Forrester specializing in digital sovereignty.
Similarly, open-source alternatives exist for common software like Office and Windows. While proponents highlight their transparency and accessibility, they often lack the comprehensiveness and familiarity of established options.
While transitioning to sovereign alternatives would not “happen overnight,” Mr. Maisto argues it is a “myth” that it is impossible.
He cites the German state of Schleswig-Holstein’s ongoing effort to replace Microsoft products like Office 365 and Windows with open-source solutions such as LibreOffice and Linux. Denmark’s Ministry for Digitalisation is piloting a similar initiative.
“We sometimes overvalue the role of proprietary software in our organizations,” Mr. Maisto suggests, emphasizing that open-source solutions are perfectly adequate for essential services like word processing and email.
“The main reasons organizations don’t use open source are a lack of awareness and misplaced fears about cyber security,” he adds.
“Our prediction is that in the next five to 10 years, there will be an accelerated shift [to these solutions] due to this wake-up call.”
Benjamin Revcolevschi, CEO of OVHCloud, tells the BBC that firms like his are prepared to meet the sovereignty needs of public and private organizations in Europe.
“Only European cloud providers, headquartered in the EU with European governance, can offer immunity to non-European laws, protecting sensitive and personal data,” he states.
However, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google assert that they already provide solutions addressing digital sovereignty concerns by storing data on servers within the client’s country or region, not in the U.S.
Google tells the BBC that it also partners with trusted local EU suppliers like T-Systems, granting them control over client data encryption and providing customers with “a technical veto over their data.” The German Army is among its clients.
Meanwhile, Microsoft President Brad Smith has pledged legal action in the “exceedingly unlikely” event of a U.S. government order to suspend services, and promised to include a clause to that effect in European contracts.
“We will continue to look for new ways to ensure the European Commission and our European customers have the options and assurances they need to operate with confidence,” a Microsoft spokesperson told the BBC.
Zach Meyers, from the Brussels-based Centre on Regulation in Europe (CERRE) think tank, suggests that developing a limited, sovereign European cloud to protect critical government data may be prudent.
However, he deems it unrealistic to attempt to “get Americans out of the supply chain, or to ensure that there’s Europeans in the supply chain at each point.”
He points to Gaia-X, a scheme launched in 2020 to create a European-based alternative to large, centralized cloud platforms, which has faced considerable criticism and delays.
“A lot of these [tech] markets are winner takes all, so once you’re the first mover it’s really hard for anyone else to catch up.”
Instead, Mr. Meyers believes Europe should focus on areas where it can gain a technological advantage.
“It could be the industrial use of AI, because Europe already has a much bigger, stronger industrial base than the US has,” he suggests. “Or the next generation of chipmaking equipment, because one of the few areas where Europe has a foothold is in photolithography – the machines that make the really top-end chips.”
So, what is the future of the digital sovereignty agenda?
Some argue that significant change requires new regulations compelling regional organizations and governments to procure local technology. However, according to Mr. Berjon, the EU has been slow to act.
“There is definitely political interest, but it’s a question of turning it into a shared strategy.”
Matthias Bauer, director at the European Centre for International Political Economy, believes the goal should be to strengthen Europe’s technology sector to compete with the U.S. and China.
In a 2024 report on EU competitiveness, Mario Draghi, former head of the European Central Bank, noted that Europe is “severely lagging behind” in new technologies and that “only four of the world’s top 50 tech companies are European.”
“It’s currently much harder for a tech company based in the EU to scale across the bloc than it would be for the same company in the US,” Mr. Bauer explains.
“You not only face different languages, but different contract law, labor market laws, tax laws, and also different sector-specific regulation.”
Regarding the theory that a U.S. President might activate a “kill switch” and shut down Europe’s internet, he remains highly skeptical.
“It would be a realistic scenario if we were close to a war, but I don’t see that on the horizon.”
Yet, Mr. Maisto insists that organizations must take the risk seriously, however remote.
“Two years ago, we didn’t think we would be talking about these topics in these terms in 2025. Now organizations want to get ready for what might happen.”
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