In just over three months, Welsh voters will head to the polls to elect their next devolved government.
Recent polling suggests a potentially seismic shift, with Labour facing the prospect of losing its long-held dominance in Wales.
The valleys of South Wales are deeply rooted in Labour’s rich history.
Figures like Hardie, Bevan, Kinnock, and Foot – titans of the Labour movement – have shaped the region.
However, a sense of unease pervades Welsh Labour as it approaches these pivotal elections.
These elections are of paramount importance, as they will determine the leadership responsible for vital public services such as healthcare, education, transportation, and planning.
Beyond Wales, the outcome could significantly influence the future of Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer.
The loss of Wales would be a profound psychological blow to the Labour Party.
In recent years, Labour lost significant ground in its Scottish heartlands in 2015, only to regain them in 2024. Similarly, the party lost support in the Midlands and Northern England in 2019, but made gains in 2024.
However, Wales has remained a steadfast supporter of Labour, even through challenging times. That loyalty may now be in jeopardy.
“Labour has won every election at a devolved level since devolution began in 1999,” notes Dr. Jac Larner of Cardiff University.
“The party has also won every general election here for over a century. Now, we are facing the possibility of Labour not only failing to be the largest party, but potentially not even ranking second or third.”
“The speed of Labour’s decline has surprised many, including Labour itself,” observes Laura McAllister, professor of public policy and the governance of Wales at the Wales Governance Centre.
Labour faces the challenge of incumbency at both the Cardiff and London levels.
A weary and impatient electorate may choose to hold Labour accountable on both fronts, a prospect that deeply concerns many within the party.
Observers note that the upcoming election is unusually competitive.
Currently, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK appear to be gaining momentum.
“When you are in government for a long time, there is a cost. You inevitably alienate enough people, creating opportunities for other parties, such as Plaid and Reform, to compete for government,” Larner explains.
“Plaid Cymru has always been a significant player in devolved politics. But current indicators suggest they are now the frontrunners to become the largest party, which is a significant development.”
Why is this happening? “We are seeing major societal shifts that favor Plaid. More people than ever before identify as exclusively Welsh,” Larner suggests.
McAllister, author of ‘Plaid Cymru: the Emergence of a Political Party’ and a former Plaid candidate, may need to update her work if current polls hold true.
“It’s unclear how permanent this realignment is. Some may see Plaid as best positioned to defeat Reform. But they had to be strong to begin with to be seen as the best to do that. They argue they are the best party to defend Wales, a role Welsh Labour used to hold,” McAllister states.
What about Reform UK? The party has led in UK-wide polls for months and views the Welsh election with optimism. Nigel Farage has long emphasized its importance.
The Conservatives have long faced blame for de-industrialization, which may have limited the potential electorate for a right-wing party in Wales.
“Reform UK does not carry this historical baggage. As a result, we may be witnessing the rise of a viable right-wing party in Wales,” Larner observes.
Taken together, these factors suggest a contest where the two major Westminster parties, Labour and the Conservatives, are relegated to supporting roles.
Privately, senior Labour figures emphasize their extensive experience governing Wales, something neither Plaid nor Reform possess.
However, relative newcomers may soon be in charge.
The electorate appears to be telling Labour that experience is a double-edged sword, and the prospect of fresh leadership is appealing.
Labour, once the dominant force in Welsh politics, now faces social changes and a fragmented electorate in the political home of its founder, Keir Hardie.
The Labour movement is contemplating the potential damage a defeat in Wales would inflict on its current leader, Keir Starmer, and the questions it would raise about his future.
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