Canada’s sovereignty has become a focal point in the current federal election as concerns over US President Donald Trump loom large. Yet, an equally significant challenge is emerging from within: a number of western Canadians, frustrated after a decade of Liberal governance, have begun to voice their support for separation.
Addressing about 100 attendees packed into a modest venue in Lethbridge, Dennis Modry canvassed local opinion on Alberta’s future.
He first asked who believed Alberta should wield greater influence within Canada—several hands went up.
When he inquired who would back secession to establish Alberta as an independent nation, roughly half indicated their support.
“How many people favour Alberta joining the US?” Again, about half of those present expressed their approval.
Modry, a retired cardiac surgeon, co-leads the Alberta Prosperity Project, a grassroots group advocating for an independence referendum.
The notion of separation is longstanding in this predominately conservative province, but it has gained renewed vitality, spurred by Trump’s remarks about potentially making Canada the 51st US state and the corresponding gains for the Liberals as the election approaches.
Modry told the BBC that separatist sentiment has intensified in recent months, in part fueled by the rhetoric from the US president.
“We’re not interested in that,” he insisted. “Our focus is on Alberta’s sovereignty.”
Meanwhile, Jeffrey Rath—a Calgary lawyer, rancher, and another co-founder—offered a more open perspective regarding links to the United States. Though he prioritizes independence, he doesn’t rule out Alberta aligning with the US in the future.
“We share much more culturally with our southern neighbours in Montana, and our counterparts in Texas, than anywhere else,” he noted.
Once considered a fringe idea, the potential for a national unity crisis is now a matter of mainstream discourse.
In a Globe and Mail opinion column, Preston Manning—widely regarded as a founder of modern Canadian conservatism—warned that “large numbers of Westerners simply will not accept another four years of Liberal government, regardless of its leadership.”
He accused the Liberals of mismanaging national priorities and neglecting western concerns, further stating: “A vote for the Carney Liberals is a vote for Western secession—a move towards breaking up Canada as we know it.”
The feeling of “western alienation”—the belief that the region is underserved by Ottawa—is longstanding. Residents of oil-rich Alberta and Saskatchewan have often lamented their lack of representation given their economic contributions to the country.
That discontent deepened during Justin Trudeau’s tenure, as his government’s environmental measures were seen by many Albertans as hostile to provincial economic growth.
National polling suggests the Liberals, now led by Mark Carney, could secure a fourth straight victory. Concentrated support in populous eastern provinces such as Ontario and Quebec only exacerbates regional tensions.
Judy Schneider, whose husband works in Calgary’s energy sector, told the BBC she would vote “yes” in an independence referendum.
Schneider questioned Carney’s affinity for the West, noting his time spent outside Canada despite his roots in Edmonton.
“He might say he’s from Alberta, but is he really?” she remarked.
Nonetheless, the prospect of an independent Alberta remains remote—a recent Angus Reid poll found just one in four Albertans would support separation in a referendum at present. Still, a separate survey from Nanos suggests that most Canadians see the issue as one which deserves attention.
Political experts assert that the regional divide will challenge whoever becomes the next prime minister, especially if Carney prevails. Even a Conservative win under Calgary native Pierre Poilievre would not fully address the East-West imbalance, Modry argued.
Such tensions have led Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and the United Conservative Party to pursue an independent course in trade negotiations with the US—unlike other provinces, which have worked closely with the federal government. Smith even visited Trump at his Mar-a-Lago residence.
Within Canada, Smith has warned publicly that a “national unity crisis” could emerge if Ottawa does not repeal Trudeau-era green legislation, a key demand tied to boosting Alberta’s resource sector, within six months of the election.
While Smith has dismissed outright secession as “nonsense,” critics have accused her of inflaming the issue at a sensitive moment for the country’s stability.
Even among separatists, opinions differ on the best way forward.
Lorna Guitton, a lifelong Albertan and volunteer for the Alberta Prosperity Project, told the BBC she aspires to improved relations with Ottawa.
She characterized the existing union as “broken,” believing a vote—or a credible threat of one—would grant Alberta more leverage in future talks.
Still, Guitton ruled out joining the US.
“They’ve got enough of their own issues. Why would I want to be part of that?” she said. “I’d rather see Alberta as an independent province, or at least one with a fairer arrangement in Canada.”
At his ranch outside Calgary, Mr. Rath offered an alternative view.
While tending his horses, he referenced the affinity for free enterprise and limited government shared by both Albertans and Americans.
“From that standpoint, Alberta could fit well within the United States,” he said.
Rath is now assembling a “fact-finding” delegation to travel to Washington, DC, aiming to bring Alberta’s case directly to the Trump administration.
Still, many Albertans dismiss independence outright—even among those who believe the province is overlooked by Ottawa.
Steve Lachlan of Lethbridge conceded that the West is under-represented, but observed, “We already have separation, and we need to unite.”
Liberals are not without support in the province—polls suggest Alberta may send more Liberal MPs to Parliament than in 2021, aided by population growth and new urban ridings in Edmonton and Calgary.
James Forrester, an elector in competitive Calgary Centre, told the BBC he previously backed Conservatives but is now leaning left—citing the “Carney factor” as motivation to vote Liberal.
“I believe he’s the best leader to deal with Trump,” Forrester said, adding, “I’m not concerned about the separatist sentiment.”
Additional reporting and videos by Eloise Alanna
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