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Renewable energy sources surpassed coal as the world’s primary electricity source in the first half of this year, marking a historic milestone, according to recent data from the global energy think tank, Ember.
Global electricity demand is on the rise, but the robust growth of solar and wind power has met 100% of the increased demand, even contributing to a slight decrease in coal and gas consumption.
However, Ember cautions that these headline figures obscure a more complex global situation.
Developing nations, particularly China, have spearheaded the clean energy transition. Meanwhile, wealthier countries, including the US and EU, have increased their reliance on fossil fuels for electricity generation.
A separate report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests this divergence is likely to intensify. The IEA forecasts a significantly slower growth rate for renewables in the US, citing the policies of President Donald Trump’s administration.
Despite the growth of renewables, coal remained the world’s single largest source of energy generation in 2024, a position it has held for over five decades, the IEA notes.
China continues to expand its fleet of coal-fired power plants, but it also maintains a leading position in clean energy growth, adding more solar and wind capacity than the rest of the world combined. This has allowed renewable generation growth to outpace rising electricity demand, leading to a 2% reduction in fossil fuel generation.
India experienced slower electricity demand growth and added substantial new solar and wind capacity, resulting in a reduction in coal and gas consumption.
In contrast, developed nations such as the US and the EU have witnessed the opposite trend.
In the US, electricity demand grew faster than clean energy output, leading to increased reliance on fossil fuels. In the EU, weak wind and hydropower performance resulted in a rise in coal and gas generation.
The IEA has also halved its forecast for renewable energy growth in the US this decade. Last year, the agency predicted the US would add 500GW of new renewable capacity by 2030, but this has now been reduced to 250GW.
The IEA analysis represents the most comprehensive assessment to date of the impact of the Trump administration’s policies on global efforts to transition to cleaner energy sources, highlighting the contrasting approaches of the US and China.
As China’s clean tech exports surge, the US is focusing on promoting its oil and gas exports.
Despite these regional disparities, Ember characterizes this moment as a “crucial turning point.”
Malgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, senior analyst at Ember, stated that it “marks the beginning of a shift where clean power is keeping pace with demand growth.”
Solar power accounted for the majority of growth, meeting 83% of the increase in electricity demand. It has been the largest source of new electricity globally for three consecutive years.
Most solar generation (58%) is now located in lower-income countries, many of which have experienced rapid growth in recent years.
This growth is attributed to dramatic cost reductions. Solar prices have fallen by an astonishing 99.9% since 1975 and are now so affordable that large solar markets can emerge within a single year, particularly in regions with expensive and unreliable grid electricity, according to Ember.
Pakistan, for example, imported solar panels capable of generating 17 gigawatts (GW) of solar power in 2024, doubling the previous year’s figures and representing approximately one-third of the country’s current electricity generation capacity.
Africa is also experiencing a solar boom, with panel imports up 60% year-on-year as of June. South Africa led the way, followed by Nigeria, which overtook Egypt with 1.7GW of solar generating capacity, enough to meet the electricity demand of roughly 1.8 million homes in Europe.
Some smaller African nations have witnessed even more rapid growth, with Algeria increasing imports 33-fold, Zambia eightfold, and Botswana sevenfold.
The rapid growth of solar has created unexpected challenges in some countries.
In Afghanistan, widespread use of solar-powered water pumps is lowering the water table, threatening long-term access to groundwater. A study by Dr. David Mansfield and satellite data firm Alcis warns that some regions could run dry within five to ten years, endangering millions of livelihoods.
Adair Turner, chair of the UK’s Energy Transitions Commission, notes that countries in the global “sun belt” and “wind belt” face distinct energy challenges.
Sun belt nations, including much of Asia, Africa, and Latin America, require significant amounts of electricity for daytime air conditioning. These countries can significantly reduce energy costs almost immediately by adopting solar-based systems, supported by increasingly affordable batteries for energy storage.
Wind belt countries like the UK face more complex challenges. Wind turbine costs have not decreased as dramatically as solar panel costs, declining by only about a third in the last decade. Higher interest rates have also increased borrowing costs, raising the overall price of installing wind farms.
Balancing supply is also more challenging, as winter wind lulls can last for weeks, requiring backup power sources beyond battery storage, which increases system costs.
Regardless of location, China’s dominance in clean tech industries remains unchallenged, according to new data from Ember.
In August 2025, China’s clean tech exports reached a record $20 billion, driven by surging sales of electric vehicles (up 26%) and batteries (up 23%). Combined, China’s electric vehicles and batteries are now worth more than twice the value of its solar panel exports.
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