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Funding for the U.S. government is slated to lapse at the close of Tuesday unless President Donald Trump’s Republican Party can reach an accord with opposition Democrats on a forthcoming spending bill.
This impasse could lead to a temporary cessation of some, but not all, U.S. government services.
While budgetary disagreements are commonplace in American politics, this particular fiscal standoff carries heightened tension, especially given President Trump’s sustained efforts over the past nine months to reduce the size and scope of the federal government.
In essence, any government shutdown would stem from the inability of both parties to converge on and pass legislation that funds government services into October and beyond.
Republicans currently hold a majority in both chambers of Congress. However, in the Senate, they fall short of the 60 votes needed to advance a spending bill.
Consequently, Democrats possess a degree of leverage in this situation. They are withholding support for a Republican-backed bill that they contend would make healthcare less affordable for Americans, effectively making this disagreement a platform to advance their healthcare policy objectives.
Democrats are advocating for an extension of tax credits designed to lower health insurance costs for millions of Americans, which are slated to expire. They also seek a reversal of Medicaid cuts enacted by the Trump administration and oppose proposed spending reductions for the Centers for Disease Control and the National Institutes of Health.
A stopgap bill was previously approved in the House of Representatives but has yet to pass the Senate.
Should no agreement be reached, the U.S. will experience its first government shutdown in nearly seven years at 00:01 EDT on Wednesday (05:01 BST).
The most recent government shutdown occurred at the end of 2018, during President Trump’s first term. Both parties are currently engaged in last-ditch efforts to avert a recurrence.
President Trump is scheduled to meet with all four congressional leaders on Monday, marking the first such gathering since his return to the White House. This includes the top-ranking Democrats in both the House and Senate, as well as their Republican counterparts.
However, President Trump has tempered expectations for a resolution, stating to CBS News, the BBC’s U.S. partner, “I just don’t know how we’re going to solve this issue.”
At this juncture, the likelihood of some form of government shutdown appears elevated.
Thus far, officials within the Trump administration have shown little inclination to offer significant concessions.
They seemingly believe that Democrats, as the party demanding concessions to keep the government operational, will bear the brunt of public blame, as has occurred in past shutdowns.
Democrats, conversely, believe their advocacy for preserving health insurance subsidies enjoys broad public support.
Furthermore, their congressional leadership faced criticism from left-leaning activists for yielding ground during the last budget battle in March. Many Democrats are now eager for a more significant confrontation, and government funding represents one of the few areas where their party holds leverage.
A distinguishing factor of this current standoff is the position adopted by the White House.
Historically, prolonged shutdowns have been viewed as politically risky, disrupting the daily lives of voters and casting a negative light on lawmakers and the President.
However, the Trump administration appears willing to shutter significant portions of the U.S. government for an extended period. In fact, officials have suggested using a shutdown to identify “non-essential” workers who could then be permanently terminated.
In prior shutdowns, government operations largely returned to normal, with staffing and spending levels generally reverting to pre-shutdown levels once the impasse was resolved.
Over the past nine months, however, the Trump administration has already implemented spending cuts and workforce reductions, testing the limits of presidential authority. A shutdown could provide the administration with an opportunity to accelerate its substantial reductions.
Not all government functions will cease if Congress fails to pass a spending bill.
Border protection, in-hospital medical care, law enforcement, and air traffic control are expected to continue operating during a shutdown.
While Social Security and Medicare checks would still be distributed, benefit verification and card issuance could be suspended.
Generally, during a shutdown, essential employees continue working, some without pay for the duration, while government employees deemed non-essential are temporarily placed on unpaid leave. Historically, these workers have been compensated retroactively.
This implies that services such as the food assistance program, federally funded pre-schools, student loan issuance, food inspections, and operations at national parks are likely to be curtailed or closed.
Travel delays could also occur if the standoff persists and unpaid workers cease reporting for duty. A prolonged shutdown could also have secondary effects on the U.S. economy.
Government shutdowns have been relatively frequent over the past 50 years.
There were three shutdowns during President Trump’s first term, including the longest in history, lasting 36 days and ending in January 2019. That shutdown was triggered by disagreements over funding for a wall along the Mexico border.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the 2019 shutdown reduced economic output by approximately $11 billion, with $3 billion never recovered.
Fellow Republican Ronald Reagan presided over eight government shutdowns during his presidency in the 1980s, although all were relatively brief.
Budget-related government shutdowns are almost unique to the U.S. political system.
Under the U.S. system, different branches of government must reach a consensus on spending plans before they can become law.
In most countries, budget votes function as votes of confidence in the government. However, because the U.S. has co-equal and often divided branches of government, this is not the case.
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