A second exit poll in Poland’s presidential election projects a narrow victory for conservative historian Karol Nawrocki with 50.7% of the vote, against Warsaw’s liberal mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, at 49.3%.
This result dramatically reverses the initial exit poll, which favored Trzaskowski with a slight 50.3% to 49.7% lead. The official count is expected Monday morning, according to the state electoral commission head.
Following the first exit poll, Trzaskowski prematurely declared victory, stating, “We won,” adding, “though ‘razor’s edge’ will forever be part of Polish political history.” His wife, Małgorzata, lightheartedly commented on the tension.
Trzaskowski pledged to unify the nation, promising to be “a president for all Polish women and men.”
In contrast, Nawrocki urged supporters to remain optimistic after the initial poll results, expressing confidence in a future win.
While the Polish presidency is largely ceremonial, the incumbent holds veto power, a significant check on Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-EU coalition government, which lacks a commanding parliamentary majority.
President Andrzej Duda’s past use of this veto power blocked key Tusk administration initiatives, including judicial reforms and abortion law liberalization.
A Trzaskowski victory would remove this obstacle, potentially strengthening Poland’s position within the EU. However, Tusk faces internal coalition disagreements on issues such as abortion and civil partnerships.
Conversely, a Nawrocki win—supported by the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party—would prolong government-presidency conflict, potentially revitalizing PiS and boosting its prospects in the 2027 parliamentary elections.
Both candidates support Ukrainian aid, though Nawrocki opposes immediate NATO and EU membership for Ukraine given the ongoing conflict. They diverge on EU relations; Trzaskowski advocates for strong ties with Germany and France, while Nawrocki champions Polish sovereignty and opposes certain EU policies.
Trzaskowski, a former European minister and Warsaw mayor since 2018, hails from a prominent family. However, some perceive him as detached from ordinary citizens. According to CBOS polling, his typical voter is a relatively affluent 30-40-year-old with left-leaning views and pro-EU sentiments.
To broaden his appeal, Trzaskowski adopted a firmer stance on illegal immigration and undertook military training.
Nawrocki, a 42-year-old conservative Catholic, prioritizes traditional values and opposes increased EU authority. His relatively recent rise to prominence stems from his selection as the PiS’s unofficial candidate. His campaign featured a cultivated image of strength and national interest, including a publicized meeting with President Trump.
Despite facing accusations of ethical misconduct, including allegations of property fraud and involvement in facilitating sex work, these did not significantly impact his late-campaign support. He also faced criticism for misrepresenting his property holdings during a debate.
While some Nawrocki voters dismissed certain allegations as media-driven smears, the controversies surrounding his candidacy remain significant.