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The recent Nobel Prize awarded to Maria Corina Machado has been met with considerable approval from the Venezuelan opposition.
It is anticipated that this recognition will galvanize international awareness and support for their cause.
In response to the award, Machado directly appealed for assistance from former President Trump, who had himself been a contender for the prize.
“Today more than ever we count on President Trump,” Machado stated.
She expressed hope that, through the assistance of the United States, other Latin American nations, and “democratic nations of the world,” Venezuela will “achieve freedom and democracy.”
The question remains: to what extent will Donald Trump intervene?
The stakes in Venezuela are currently high.
The nation faces widespread poverty affecting millions, unreliable basic services like electricity in many areas, and a healthcare system in crisis characterized by critical medicine shortages. Millions of citizens have fled in recent years, many seeking refuge in the United States or neighboring countries.
The last election was widely deemed by the international community as neither free nor fair. Security forces reportedly cracked down on post-election protests, resulting in numerous detentions. Human rights organizations believe that hundreds of political prisoners remain incarcerated.
More recently, the U.S. has initiated the bombing of vessels off the Venezuelan coast in international waters, alleging their involvement in drug trafficking. Legal experts suggest these strikes could be in violation of international law.
This is a brief overview of the complex situation surrounding Venezuela. Under ordinary circumstances, it would be a prominent global news story.
However, the opposition, recognized by the U.S. and others as the legitimate victors of the last election, finds itself with limited viable options to effect meaningful change.
Machado, the de facto leader, remains in hiding within Venezuela. The opposition’s designated candidate, Edmundo González, recognized by the U.S. and others as president-elect, lives in exile. Both face threats and accusations of “treason” from the current government.
Machado made a brief appearance at a protest prior to President Nicolás Maduro’s inauguration in January, but was subsequently arrested and released.
The widespread protests that followed the last election have diminished in frequency due to concerns about potential repercussions for demonstrators.
Calls from the opposition for the military and security forces to defect from President Maduro have not resulted in significant defections. These forces, along with key militia groups, remain loyal to the president.
A key question remains regarding the extent to which the opposition’s allies, including the U.S., are prepared to intervene.
In recent weeks, the U.S. has reportedly bombed at least four boats in the Caribbean Sea, off the coast of Venezuela in international waters, resulting in at least 21 deaths. The U.S. asserts that these were drug-trafficking vessels, but has not released details about those on board.
Some legal experts believe these strikes may violate international law. A leaked memo sent to Congress suggests the U.S. now defines itself as being in a “non-international armed conflict,” implying an intent to justify wartime powers against alleged cartels.
While it is true that cartels, such as Tren de Aragua, are present in the region, the areas where some of these vessels allegedly originated are not the largest trafficking hotspots in Latin America.
This has led many in the region to suspect that the true objective behind these strikes, coupled with the increasing U.S. military presence, is to exert military pressure on Maduro and ultimately remove him from power.
The Pentagon has reportedly amassed a force of thousands of troops in the region and is planning potential military operations. Special operations forces have been sighted by neighboring Caribbean islands, such as Trinidad and Tobago.
Grenada’s foreign ministry has stated it is reviewing a U.S. government request to temporarily install radar equipment and technical personnel at its airport.
Venezuela’s defense minister, Vladimir Padrino López, has warned of potential U.S. attacks involving drones or special forces carrying out “selective assassinations.” The president of neighboring Colombia, Gustavo Petro, has claimed that a “new war scenario has opened up” in the Caribbean.
In Venezuela, civilian reserves are reportedly preparing for a potential U.S. attack.
U.S. administration officials contend that Maduro is at the head of Venezuela’s cartel network, an accusation he denies. It is believed the U.S. would argue that removing him from power constitutes a “counter-narcotics” operation.
In August, the U.S. doubled the reward for information leading to his arrest to $50 million, accusing him of being “one of the largest narco-traffickers in the world” – allegations the Venezuelan government dismissed as “pathetic.”
While Venezuela has cooperated with some repatriation flights of migrants from the U.S., this has not lessened the Trump administration’s criticism of Maduro.
On Friday, The New York Times reported that Venezuelan officials offered the Trump administration a dominant stake in Venezuela’s heavily-sanctioned oil, gold, and mineral resources, but the Trump administration reportedly declined the offer.
The Trump administration may have publicly criticized the Nobel Peace Prize committee, accusing it of being “political” for not awarding the prize to the U.S. president. However, for now, he remains an ally of the Venezuelan opposition and a vocal opponent of Maduro.
CBS News – the BBC’s U.S. partner – understands that Trump called Machado to congratulate her, stating that she deserved the award.
It remains unclear whether the U.S. will confine its operations to targeting vessels in the Caribbean Sea or has broader plans to target senior figures within the Maduro administration.
Venezuela has relatively few allies on the world stage, with notable exceptions including China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba.
Should the U.S. decide to intervene on Venezuelan soil, the situation could escalate rapidly.
The White House has dismissed the allegations as “baseless,” while the U.S. Senate rejected a measure to prevent Trump from using force against the boats.
Donald Trump has stated that the boat was carrying enough drugs to kill thousands of people.
The alleged head of the gang’s armed wing was apprehended in a joint operation between Colombia, the U.S., and the UK.
Tensions between the two countries have increased following the U.S. Navy’s targeting of boats off the coast of Venezuela.
Venezuela has condemned the series of strikes by U.S. forces in the Caribbean targeting alleged drug traffickers.
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