NATO’s chief has issued a stark warning, stating that Russia could potentially attack a member nation within the next five years.
“Russia is already escalating its covert campaign against our societies,” Mark Rutte declared in a speech delivered in Germany. “We must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured.”
His remarks echo similar assessments regarding Russia’s intentions previously voiced by Western intelligence agencies, which Moscow has dismissed as unfounded hysteria.
Rutte’s caution comes as U.S. President Donald Trump seeks to broker an end to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022.
Earlier this month, Russian President Vladimir Putin asserted that his country has no plans to engage in warfare with Europe, but stated that it would be prepared “right now” if Europe were to initiate conflict.
However, similar assurances were provided by Moscow in 2022, shortly before approximately 200,000 Russian troops crossed the border and invaded Ukraine.
Putin has accused European nations of obstructing U.S. efforts to secure peace in Ukraine, alluding to the recent role played by Ukraine’s European allies in attempting to modify a U.S. peace plan perceived as favoring Russia.
However, NATO’s secretary-general stated in Berlin that Putin’s statements lack sincerity.
He emphasized that supporting Ukraine is crucial for guaranteeing European security.
“Just imagine if Putin got his way; Ukraine under the boot of Russian occupation, his forces pressing against a longer border with Nato, and the significantly increased risk of an armed attack against us.”
Russia’s economy has been operating on a war footing for over three years, with its factories continually increasing production of drones, missiles, and artillery shells.
According to a recent report by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Russia produces approximately 150 tanks, 550 infantry fighting vehicles, 120 Lancet drones, and over 50 artillery pieces each month.
The UK and most of its Western allies are far from achieving similar levels of production.
Analysts suggest that it would take years for Western Europe’s factories to approach Russia’s mass-production capabilities.
France and Germany have recently taken steps to reinstate a system of voluntary military service for 18-year-olds.
“Hybrid” or “grey-zone” warfare, characterized by often deniable actions such as cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns, and alleged drone launches near airports and military bases in NATO countries, has intensified this year.
While concerning, these events pale in comparison to the potential crisis that would arise from a Russian military attack on a NATO member, particularly if it involved territorial seizure and casualties.
NATO comprises 30 European nations, as well as Canada and the U.S., the alliance’s most powerful military member.
Under pressure from Trump, its members have pledged to increase military spending.
“Nato’s own defences can hold for now,” Rutte warned in Berlin, but conflict was “next door” to Europe and he feared “too many are quietly complacent, and too many don’t feel the urgency, too many believe that time is on our side.
“Allied defence spending and production must rise rapidly, our armed forces must have what they need to keep us safe,” the Nato chief said.
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