Senior government officials suggest a breakthrough with Emmanuel Macron is imminent, potentially leading to an agreement where France would accept the return of a portion of individuals who have crossed the English Channel via small boats.
In parallel, the UK would reportedly accept asylum claimants from France who express a desire to relocate to the UK and are believed to have valid claims.
Dubbed a “one-in-one-out” arrangement, the eventual numbers are expected to surpass a simple one-to-one exchange.
Crucially, the success of the deal, slated for announcement soon, will hinge on its capacity to act as a “deterrent.”
Sir Keir Starmer has stated that he and the French President concur on the necessity of “a new deterrent to disrupt the criminal operations of trafficking gangs.”
The critical question remains the extent to which the finalized agreement fulfills this deterrent function, particularly in the immediate future.
Will it effectively discourage individuals from attempting the perilous Channel crossing?
The anticipated pilot program would reportedly involve the return of approximately 50 migrants weekly to France, with the UK concurrently accepting a similar number of asylum seekers from France deemed to have legitimate claims for relocation to the UK.
Critics, including Conservatives, argue that this equates to roughly 5% of current crossing attempts, rendering it an insufficient deterrent.
The Conservative party highlights its previously proposed, yet unimplemented, plan to send migrants to Rwanda as a superior deterrent measure. This scheme was abandoned following Labour’s electoral victory.
Nevertheless, this agreement, while initially limited in scope, signifies a potential turning point in Franco-British cooperation on this complex issue, reflecting France’s willingness to accept the return of a portion of those undertaking the Channel crossing.
The long-term success will depend on whether it can be scaled up sufficiently to exert a discernible impact on overall numbers.
Put simply, will the number of attempted crossings decrease, or will they remain consistent?
Its perceived effectiveness, at least from the UK perspective, will largely depend on a demonstrable reduction in attempted crossings.
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The Manx government is responding partly due to vacancy numbers exceeding the number of jobseekers.
A former Dover coastguard, an ex-border security chief and a customs boss recall the first landings.
Sir Keir Starmer has promised to “smash the gangs” which smuggle people across the English Channel.
Details aside, the agreement is likely to encounter legal, political and practical obstacles.
“We’re going to try again and again to cross to the UK,” one migrant told the BBC