The United Nations reports that only 64 countries have submitted updated carbon reduction plans, despite a universal requirement to do so ahead of the forthcoming COP30 summit next month.
Collectively, these national commitments are insufficient to prevent global warming from exceeding 1.5°C, a critical threshold beyond which the impacts of climate change are projected to become severely dangerous.
While the UN review acknowledges progress in curbing carbon emissions over the coming decade, the anticipated reduction falls short of what is necessary to keep temperatures from surpassing this global target.
The report underscores the magnitude of the challenge facing world leaders as they convene in Belém, Brazil, next week for the COP30 climate conference.
A decade after the Paris Agreement was established in 2015, national efforts to limit the rise in global temperatures are undergoing renewed scrutiny.
Under the agreement, each signatory committed to submitting an updated carbon reduction plan every five years, outlining their objectives for the subsequent decade.
However, despite multiple deadline extensions, only 64 countries have submitted new pledges this year, representing approximately 30% of global emissions.
Furthermore, the UN’s review incorporates statements made by China and the EU at Climate Week in New York during September, outlining their future plans.
When aggregated, these efforts are projected to result in a global reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by roughly 10% by 2035.
However, scientists assert that this reduction is significantly insufficient to maintain the temperature increase below 1.5°C.
Achieving this goal necessitates substantial cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, potentially as high as 57% by 2035, according to a UN report from last year.
“This report demonstrates that we are moving in the right direction, but at an inadequate pace,” stated Laurence Tubiana, CEO of the European Climate Foundation and often recognized as a key architect of the Paris Agreement.
“It is crucial to acknowledge the missing national pledges and address the persistent gap between ambition and actual implementation.”
The 1.5°C limit, established in Paris, has long been regarded as the threshold for extremely dangerous warming.
In 2018, scientists detailed the substantial global benefits of limiting the temperature rise to under 1.5°C, compared to allowing it to reach 2°C. Exceeding 1.5°C would lead to more frequent and intense heatwaves and storms, increased damage to coral reefs, and escalating threats to human health and livelihoods, UN scientists have warned.
However, that limit was breached in 2024 for a complete year for the first time.
UN leaders are increasingly acknowledging that, at current rates, this threshold will be permanently exceeded by the early 2030s.
“One thing is already clear: we will not be able to contain global warming below 1.5°C in the next few years,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres told delegates at a meeting of the World Meteorological Organisation last week.
“Overshooting is now inevitable, which means that we’re going to have a period, of greater or lesser extent and intensity, above 1.5°C in the years to come.”
Despite this, the UN emphasizes that the new report does highlight some significant positive developments that offer hope.
Many more countries are expected to present their plans as their leaders gather for COP30 in Belém, Brazil.
Major carbon emitters, including India and Indonesia, have not yet revealed their carbon plans. They are likely to do so during COP30, which could have a significant impact on the overall projections for 2035.
Experts also suggest that some countries are likely to implement faster and more extensive cuts than they have initially pledged.
“It’s completely reasonable to look at China,” said Todd Stern, former US Special Envoy for climate change.
“They’ll set a specific target, which may not be particularly ambitious, and then they will exceed it, which is a common practice for China.”
The UN expresses confidence that global emissions will likely peak and begin to decline in the next few years, marking the first such reversal since the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century.
They assert that the existing plans provide clear pathways towards achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century. Net-zero implies balancing the amount of planet-warming “greenhouse” gases produced by human activities with the amount actively removed from the atmosphere.
A key factor is that the UN’s assessment of emission cuts includes the US pledge submitted under President Biden.
Despite President Donald Trump’s stated intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, that process is not yet finalized, so the UN is retaining the US plans in their calculations, even if their implementation is uncertain.
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