“`html
Successive UK governments have maintained that recognition of a Palestinian state should be intrinsically linked to a viable peace process, timed to maximize its impact.
Amid a deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza and facing increasing pressure from within his own party, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer determined in July that such a time had arrived.
He announced that the UK would recognize a Palestinian state in September, coinciding with the UN General Assembly, contingent upon Israel meeting specific preconditions.
These conditions included agreeing to a ceasefire and demonstrating a commitment to a sustainable, long-term peace that yields a two-state solution.
Sources within Downing Street acknowledged the unlikelihood of these conditions being met, given the current Israeli government’s firm opposition to advancing a two-state solution.
Foreign Office sources involved in the decision maintain it represents a pivotal moment with the potential to significantly impact the situation on the ground.
However, they concede that it would be disingenuous to dismiss the role of domestic political considerations.
The recognition of a Palestinian state has long been a tenet of the Labour Party’s platform. In 2014, then-Labour leader Ed Miliband supported a non-binding motion in the House of Commons to that effect.
Now in power, this decision marks an undeniable and significant shift in British foreign policy.
On September 21st, Starmer formally announced the UK’s intention to recognize a Palestinian state.
This decision followed increasing calls from Labour MPs, with over half of the parliamentary party signing a letter urging the government to immediately recognize Palestinian statehood.
Behind the scenes, several cabinet ministers had also advocated for recognition, with some facing potential electoral repercussions due to public discontent over the situation in Gaza.
“I would not underestimate the pressure MPs are getting, anywhere there is a university town, or a large Muslim population, or both,” one Labour MP told the BBC.
“There is a small segment of people for whom this is central to their sense of identity.”
International pressure also played a role. The UK’s announcement followed France becoming the first G7 nation to declare its intention to recognize a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly.
Since then, Australia and Canada have made similar announcements.
Prior to the election, Sir Keir pledged to lead a Labour Party “no longer in thrall to gesture politics.”
Critics of the move argue that recognition is largely symbolic and will have limited practical impact on the ground in Gaza.
One skeptical Labour MP described it as a “nice political gesture that doesn’t butter any parsnips.”
The Conservatives have labeled the decision “political posturing,” arguing that it will neither secure the release of Israeli hostages nor bring about a ceasefire.
Others contend that the government’s decision to impose conditions on Israel but not on Hamas is problematic.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the move “rewards Hamas’s monstrous terrorism.”
The UK’s Chief Rabbi, Sir Ephraim Mirvis, urged the government to reconsider its decision, calling it “a reward for terrorism, while the hostages remain in chains, and has been celebrated by Hamas as ‘one of the fruits of 7th October’.”
Government sources strongly deny that the move is merely symbolic. They cite the initial statement from Arab nations calling for Hamas to disarm and end its rule of Gaza as evidence that British recognition can shift dynamics in the Middle East.
However, it also places the UK at odds with the US.
During his state visit to the UK, President Donald Trump, a vocal opponent of recognizing a Palestinian state, acknowledged a “disagreement” with Sir Keir on the issue.
Domestically, there is little doubt among Labour MPs that the party’s stance on Gaza has contributed to some Labour voters shifting their support towards the Green Party and pro-Gaza independent candidates.
“We have been behind the curve,” said one Labour MP who wants the government to go further.
“I think this is a step in the right direction,” they added, while noting that the majority of UN member states have long recognized a Palestinian state.
“It shows we’re late,” they said. “But better late than never.”
Labour’s difficulties surrounding the war in Gaza predate their assumption of power. In the eyes of many Muslim voters, Sir Keir’s perceived misstep occurred during a 2023 LBC interview shortly after the October 7th Hamas attacks, when he appeared to suggest that Israel had the “right” to cut off water and energy to Gaza.
A month into the conflict, several shadow ministers resigned, and 56 of his MPs rebelled over Sir Keir’s refusal to support a vote for an immediate ceasefire.
Three months later, in February 2024, the party shifted from supporting a “humanitarian pause” to advocating for an “immediate ceasefire.”
Party strategists believe that some voters are still penalizing them for these initial positions, and have not fully acknowledged the subsequent changes.
Officials in Downing Street argue that within a year of taking office, Labour has instigated a significant shift in British policy towards the Middle East. Ministers highlight the government’s suspension of some arms export licenses to Israel, sanctions against certain Israeli ministers, and the move towards recognizing a Palestinian state.
However, there is little indication that these measures will quell the concerns of Labour backbenchers regarding the situation in Gaza, or diminish calls for more decisive action.
Dr. Simon Opher, a Labour MP recently barred from entering Israel, stated that the government had attempted to use the threat of recognition as leverage to secure a ceasefire, but without success.
“Now we have to very categorically opt out of any arms deals with Israel, stop any cooperation, and we need to think about proper trade sanctions. We still do quite a lot of trade with Israel so that will be the next logical step.”
Conversely, other Labour MPs express concern that the move caters to the party’s left wing without achieving tangible results.
“It was the final diplomatic card we had to play,” one said. “You only get to do this once and actually this is not going to catalyse a peace process but drive Israelis away from it.”
Others suggested that while it would appease party members and core supporters, it would not be a decisive factor in constituencies that will determine the next election.
“It feeds into the narrative that the government cares more about Palestinian flags than Union flags,” another Labour MP said.
“It gives the impression we care more about borders in the Middle East than the borders at Dover.”
So, will it impact Labour’s political prospects? Few within the government believe it will.
Some hope it might help to navigate the party’s conference, where activists largely supportive of the Palestinian cause will gather in Liverpool next week.
But, as one senior aide stated, the crucial question is whether the situation on the ground in Gaza will have changed by the time of the next election.
Sign up for our Politics Essential newsletter to keep up with the inner workings of Westminster and beyond.
Canada and Australia also announced the move on Sunday, with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu accusing leaders of giving a “huge reward to terrorism”.
A complete transcription of Sir Keir Starmer’s video announcement on Palestinian statehood.
With the president approaching 90 years of age and another possible candidate in jail, finding the right leadership would be a challenge
The UK, Australia and Canada have recognised a Palestinian state, while France and other countries are set to do so in the coming days.
Some students say they will have to give up their university places rather than leave family in Gaza.
“`