A familiar signal suggests the Scottish National Party’s annual conference is imminent.
As reliably as the changing seasons, the party leadership emphasizes the pursuit of independence leading up to this yearly gathering.
Precisely on cue, SNP leader and First Minister John Swinney unveiled another government paper this week, outlining a vision for a “fresh start” for an independent Scotland.
This renewed focus serves to reassure attendees at the 91st annual conference in Aberdeen that the party’s core mission remains a priority.
However, the SNP faces a fundamental challenge: the lack of a clear, viable path to achieving Scottish statehood.
This impasse is a source of internal frustration and is expected to fuel robust debate on independence strategy during the conference.
Regardless of the outcome, progress toward independence hinges on the SNP maintaining its grip on power at Holyrood.
This prospect appeared uncertain a year ago, following Labour’s electoral gains at Westminster, marking their first comprehensive defeat of the SNP in a national election in 14 years.
Since then, three key factors have reshaped the landscape.
Swinney has stabilized the SNP, Labour’s approval ratings have declined, and the emergence of Reform UK seems to have broadened the SNP’s potential route to an unprecedented fifth term.
When John Swinney assumed the role of first minister, succeeding Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf after their swift departures, he inherited a party grappling with internal strife.
He has since provided a steadying influence.
He moved swiftly to address controversies surrounding gender identity, environmental policies, and the ongoing police investigation into the SNP’s finances, which has resulted in charges against former chief executive Peter Murrell.
With that initial phase complete, Swinney shifted the government’s focus to priority areas such as public services, aiming to deliver tangible improvements for the public.
One ally of the first minister summarized this approach as a need to “stop digging, get delivering.”
Swinney could point to initiatives like the removal of peak rail fares, progress in reducing child poverty, and the decision to lift the two-child limit on benefit access (regardless of UK government action) as evidence of progress.
However, the SNP’s political opponents would highlight persistent NHS waiting times, budget cuts to colleges, and the emergency release of prisoners due to overcrowding as indicators of failure.
Compounding these challenges are repeated warnings from financial watchdogs about the sustainability of social spending levels in Scotland.
Furthermore, the latest social attitudes survey for 2023 suggests a decline in public trust in the Scottish government’s ability to act in Scotland’s best interests.
These issues will undoubtedly feature prominently in the upcoming pre-election debates.
Labour maintains that Scotland can embark on a “new direction” by replacing the SNP with a Labour-led government under Anas Sarwar.
However, Labour’s momentum from 2024 has waned since Sir Keir Starmer’s ascent to Number 10, with the unpopularity of the prime minister and the UK government seemingly weighing down Scottish Labour.
Current opinion polls indicate that the SNP holds a double-digit lead over Labour, with Reform UK gaining ground and pushing the Conservatives into fourth place.
While the SNP’s overall popularity has diminished compared to five years ago, the rise of Reform UK appears to be fragmenting support among unionist parties.
This fragmentation could position the SNP to overcome divided opposition in constituencies across the country and emerge as the largest party nationwide.
These polls are not definitive, and seven months of campaigning could produce a different outcome.
It is worth recalling that Labour defied expectations by winning the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election earlier this year.
The Conservatives hope that their proposals for cuts in public spending, regulation, and taxation will differentiate them from their left-leaning rivals and prevent traditional supporters from defecting to Reform UK.
However, Nigel Farage’s party has focused on reducing immigration and increasing oil and gas exploitation, both policy areas outside of Holyrood’s jurisdiction.
One strategy for the SNP’s opponents is to consolidate anti-SNP sentiment behind the party best positioned to defeat them in each locality, although this has seen limited success in the past.
With public support for independence currently exceeding support for the SNP, Swinney’s strategy will involve enticing at least some former SNP voters back to the fold.
This will likely entail renewed emphasis on independence, a cause Swinney has championed since the age of 15.
Given his extensive political experience, Swinney understands that, for many within and beyond the SNP, independence currently seems like a distant prospect.
The UK Supreme Court has ruled that any future referendum requires the consent of the UK government, and Sir Keir Starmer has stated unequivocally that he will not authorize a vote during his tenure.
During a key conference debate on Saturday, Swinney will argue that the “only uncontested route” to another referendum is for the SNP to secure an overall majority of seats in the Holyrood election next May.
He believes that this outcome, similar to the circumstances that led then Prime Minister David Cameron to agree to the 2014 referendum, would compel the current PM to concede.
Alternatively, some advocate for a more radical approach, treating the 2026 election as a de facto referendum.
Under this scenario, if pro-independence parties collectively secure more than 50% of the votes in the Holyrood list ballot, it would be considered a “mandate to deliver independence.”
The precise implications of this approach remain unclear. Would it involve seeking negotiations with the UK government? Unilaterally declaring independence and challenging the UK to intervene? Or some other course of action?
Parties that favor the union would likely deem this approach illegitimate.
The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and Reform UK would likely object on the grounds that elections address a multitude of issues beyond the single question of independence.
Swinney’s team anticipates prevailing in this debate at the conference. Their focus is on securing the widest possible margin of victory to solidify his authority.
One elected official advocating for the alternative approach predicted a “wee gem” of a debate, requiring the leadership to exert considerable effort to achieve their desired outcome.
Whether the SNP prioritizes securing a majority of votes for all pro-independence parties (including the Greens and Alba) or a majority of Holyrood seats for themselves, both represent ambitious goals.
The SNP must also exercise caution in its pursuit of independence.
While the policy remains popular with a substantial minority of voters, it is not necessarily the foremost concern for all who support it.
Recent surveys indicate that respondents identified the NHS, the cost of living, and immigration as their top three concerns.
What else can we anticipate from this conference?
It appears that Swinney has actively sought to cultivate an image of himself not only as first minister but also as a potential statesman.
Examples include meetings with Donald Trump both in Scotland and at the White House, statements at Holyrood on Ukraine and Gaza, and an upcoming visit to Africa.
It is anticipated that Swinney’s international engagement will be highlighted, particularly given the presence of the newly recognized Palestinian ambassador to the UK as a conference speaker.
It is important to remember that Swinney assumed the role of first minister midway through a parliamentary term secured on a manifesto approved by Nicola Sturgeon.
While they enjoyed a close working relationship, with Swinney serving as her deputy, this conference, and especially his keynote speech on Monday, provides an opportunity for Swinney to assert his own vision.
Expect him to articulate a clearer sense of his identity and the objectives of a Swinney government less constrained by previous commitments. While continuity will be present, elements of change are also likely.
Whether this warrants description as a third phase of his leadership remains to be seen.
The first minister will declare a mandate for a second independence referendum, if the SNP wins a majority of seats in the 2026 Holyrood election.
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