As the countdown begins to the next Senedd election, is Welsh Labour approaching a pivotal moment?
There is growing sentiment within the party that UK Labour may not fully comprehend the distinct political landscape and electoral challenge facing its Welsh branch.
Whether this internal tension will manifest as ‘clear red water’—the now-familiar term describing the ideological gap between Welsh Labour and Westminster—remains to be seen.
First Minister Eluned Morgan announced in the Senedd on Tuesday that she will deliver a speech next week clarifying her stance on the UK Labour government’s welfare reforms—a contentious subject in Wales, particularly given the region’s high level of claimants.
It is unclear how far she intends to go in distinguishing her position, or if she will address further policy differences.
A range of pressing topics presents itself, with major decisions from Westminster surrounding steel, welfare, rail investment, the Crown Estate, and National Insurance all occupying the political foreground in Wales.
With a year left until the election on 7 May 2026, this juncture presents an opportune moment for the first minister to address Westminster policies that could impact both Welsh citizens and Labour’s political standing.
On Wednesday, BBC Wales obtained a letter sent by the First Minister to the business secretary in Westminster, laying out her concerns for the steel sector.
Eluned Morgan urges Jonathan Reynolds to ensure a designated portion of the UK government’s £2.5bn steel fund is allocated specifically to Wales.
There are anxieties that this funding could instead support blast furnaces in Scunthorpe—the focus of a recent government intervention—at the expense of Welsh facilities.
During Tuesday’s Senedd debate on steel, the first minister faced robust criticism from opposition benches and concern from within her own party, particularly after the government backed Scunthorpe while Port Talbot’s blast furnaces were left unsupported.
Tata, the owner of Port Talbot, is investing in partnership with the UK government to develop a new electric arc furnace there.
Morgan’s letter can be interpreted as a strong case for Welsh funding, but may also signal the FM’s intention to underscore policy differences—or stand in opposition—to her London colleagues.
Opposition parties remain unconvinced.
They argue these measures are insufficient and question the reality of autonomy, when relations between UK and Welsh Labour have often been described as a “partnership in power.”
Criticism has also centred on what is perceived as Welsh Labour’s limited influence in Westminster.
Several Labour Members of the Senedd have already voiced objections to welfare reform proposals.
Minister Jane Hutt, for example, confirmed she had “strongly” protested the negative impact of Westminster’s decision to retain the two-child benefit cap.
The First Minister herself has subtly challenged comments from Labour’s Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens, who expressed support for the reforms.
When Eluned Morgan assumed leadership last year, some party insiders suggested she may need a manufactured—or genuine—disagreement with UK Labour to bolster her standing.
Her upcoming speech may be the moment for such a move.
Should Morgan offer sharper criticism of UK Labour, she risks further challenges ahead.
With major decisions looming, particularly the chancellor’s spending review in June, failure to secure key goals may leave her with difficult choices about the path forward.
The government is under increased pressure to disclose which areas are carrying out investigations into grooming gangs.
First Minister Eluned Morgan has stated that the Supreme Court’s definition of a woman as biologically female will have far-reaching effects on public services.
Sources tell BBC Wales that a former national rugby player is considering standing for Labour at the next Senedd election.
Quangos, which are funded by taxpayers but operate independently of central government, include regulatory bodies.
Ms Duffield has said she was removed from the party due to her opinions on gender issues.