Housing Secretary Steve Reed has stated that his position should be “on the line” regarding the government’s commitment to construct 1.5 million new homes in England. However, in a BBC Panorama report, two leading experts suggest that the government is unlikely to meet this ambitious target.
Professor Paul Cheshire, a planning policy advisor to previous administrations, expressed his skepticism, stating there was “absolutely no way” the government would succeed.
Neil Jefferson, representing private housebuilding companies through the Home Builders Federation, echoed this sentiment, warning that the government’s target was “looking increasingly distant.”
Despite the doubts, Reed maintained his confidence in achieving the goal, telling Panorama that the widespread scepticism would make the eventual “celebration all the sweeter.”
The pledge to build 1.5 million homes during the next Parliament, scheduled to run until 2029, was a central tenet of Labour’s manifesto.
“My job should be on the line if I fail to meet my target,” Reed asserted. “I expect to be held to account.”
Jefferson, however, informed Panorama that housebuilding is “flatlining” at approximately 200,000 new homes annually, falling short of the 300,000 required to meet the target.
He cited a complex planning process, environmental regulations, and labor shortages, among other factors, as impediments to the industry’s building capacity.
Currently, many significant or contentious planning applications are decided by elected local councillors on planning committees, rather than by trained council planning officers.
This can lead to conflicts between national priorities, such as increasing housing supply, and local objections.
Local authorities are also expected to adopt a “local plan,” a document outlining development locations and alignment with national policy. These plans can facilitate planning approvals; proposals aligning with the plan should be approved unless there are compelling reasons for rejection.
These documents are often contentious and can face strong local opposition.
According to the Planning Inspectorate, less than one-third of councils in England currently have an up-to-date local plan.
Reed told Panorama that the government will soon mandate that councils adopt a local plan.
Under proposed changes, councils will be required to produce a plan within 30 months of initiating the process, a significant reduction from the current average of seven years.
The government has also announced increased funding and training for planning authorities to support plan development.
Reed insisted that government reforms would aid developers in building more homes, including mandating new housebuilding targets for councils and granting him “more powers” to review “unreasonably” rejected housing development schemes.
The government has also suggested reforms to the rules governing protected green belt land, which constitutes 12.5% of land in England.
The first green belt was established in the 1930s to prevent urban sprawl. However, many green belt areas today contain intensive farming units, industrial buildings, quarries, and golf courses.
The government has introduced the concept of the “grey belt,” aiming to simplify planning permission for green belt land considered low quality or already developed.
However, the government has delegated the decision of which sites qualify as grey belt to each local authority.
Professor Cheshire, a former economist at the London School of Economics, criticized this as a missed opportunity: “If the grey belt had been defined in a legally watertight way… then it would have been cut and dried and you could have built a lot of houses, but they didn’t do that.
“They left it to the fuzziness of the planning system and therefore to local lobbying, and… it won’t happen,” he stated.
For Professor Cheshire, the government’s reforms are “not going to make much difference.” He added that “there’s absolutely no way that we will build 1.5 million houses.”
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