Following the sentencing of a young peace activist to 15 years on charges of high treason in Azerbaijan last month, dismay among his associates has been largely directed towards the European Union, rather than the government responsible for his imprisonment.
Bahruz Samadov, a 30-year-old doctoral candidate, now faces one of the most severe penalties levied against a critic during President Ilham Aliyev’s 21-year tenure. Samadov has refuted the charges, claiming they are fabricated.
One critic stated that while the EU “may keep flirting with Baku, silence has its cost”.
In the wake of Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen designated Azerbaijan as a “key partner” in the EU’s initiative to reduce reliance on Russian natural gas.
Since then, Aliyev has regained control of the disputed Karabakh region, leading to the displacement of its entire Armenian population. He also secured a fifth consecutive term in an election widely condemned by international monitors and has intensified crackdowns on opposition figures and press freedoms.
Last year, the European Parliament urged the EU to impose sanctions on Baku and curtail its reliance on Azerbaijan’s gas exports. However, high-ranking foreign policy officials have refrained from publicly criticizing Aliyev.
During a visit to Baku in April, Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat, faced considerable criticism from Aliyev’s detractors for emphasizing the “great potential” in EU-Azerbaijan relations, even as at least 21 prominent journalists remained in detention in Baku.
Aliyev has defended the arrests of journalists by citing the need to “protect the media landscape from external negative influences,” accusing reporters of “illegally receiving funding from abroad.”
He has also routinely accused international organizations of bias and interference in domestic affairs, leading to the closure of Baku offices for the UN, the International Red Cross Committee, and the BBC.
Eldar Mamedov, a former Latvian diplomat and foreign policy advisor to the European Parliament’s Social Democrat group, suggests that EU policy has effectively granted Aliyev “a free hand.”
“The repression, arrests of dissidents, bloggers, and opposition voices have long strained Baku-Brussels relations,” he stated to the BBC. “Since Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, this issue virtually disappeared from the agenda.”
The European Union has refuted this claim.
An EU spokesman told the BBC that “[The EU] is concerned by the shrinking civic space in [Azerbaijan],” and has called on Baku “to release all those arbitrarily detained for exercising their fundamental rights.”
He added that “The EU has consistently raised its concerns at all levels, both in public and in private,” including during Kaja Kallas’s visit to Baku.
The EU aims to diversify its sources of gas supply to avoid dependence on a single supplier like Russia.
Azerbaijan’s overall share in EU natural gas imports remains a modest 4.3%, despite an increase in supplies, making it far from the largest player.
However, the share is substantially higher in certain member states connected to the Southern Gas Corridor pipeline from Azerbaijan, with up to 40% of Bulgarian natural gas imports originating from Azerbaijan, and 15% for Italy and Greece.
According to a senior European diplomat, who spoke anonymously, this disparity complicates the EU’s ability to present a united front.
He stated that “Europe in this situation does not have a huge amount of credible leverage over Azerbaijan.”
Benjamin Godwin, a risk analyst specializing in the Caucasus and Central Asia, asserts that while Azerbaijani gas is not essential to avoid power outages in Europe, its importance lies elsewhere.
He explains, “The EU’s strategy is to have as much gas from as many different locations as possible. And while it is not reliant on Azeri gas, it would like to have more gas from Azerbaijan to ultimately reduce its dependence on Russia.”
The EU spokesman affirmed to the BBC that this energy partnership “does not change our stance on the human rights situation in Azerbaijan.”
Beyond gas, President Aliyev provides other benefits to Europe.
He has consistently supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity amid Russia’s invasion, a rare position among ex-Soviet states regarded as allies by the Kremlin.
Although Azerbaijan has not imposed sanctions on Russia, it has supplied Ukraine with humanitarian aid.
Baku’s relations with Moscow have deteriorated in recent months.
In December, an Azerbaijani Airlines plane crashed, resulting in 38 fatalities, purportedly after being mistakenly shot down by a Russian anti-aircraft missile.
The crisis intensified following the deaths of two Azerbaijani men in Russian police custody.
Experts suggest that by openly challenging Russia, Aliyev aims to assume a more prominent role in a region traditionally dominated by Moscow, while also presenting himself to the West as an opponent of Vladimir Putin.
The senior EU diplomat told the BBC that “Azerbaijan has pocketed the attention and they played it pretty well. They are seeing that all sides want to be friends with them and they are making use of that in all directions.”
Another well-placed European diplomat noted, “We are absolutely not happy with [Azerbaijan’s human rights record], but there is not much we can do.”
When seven Azerbaijani investigative journalists received lengthy prison sentences last month, the EU’s diplomatic service (EEAS) described it as a “worrying development” and called for “immediate steps to ensure a safe and enabling environment for all journalists.”
To date, the EU has remained silent on Bahruz Samadov’s imprisonment for treason. However, his friends report that he recently attempted suicide and fear for his safety.
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