England will face Sweden at 20:00 BST on Thursday.
While fans typically rally behind their team’s success, a notable segment of England supporters were strategically hoping for specific outcomes on Sunday night to avoid topping their group.
As the Netherlands briefly led France in their match, positioning the Lionesses atop Group D, a palpable anxiety gripped some England fans for a tense half-hour before the French mounted a comeback in the second half.
Ultimately, France’s 5-2 victory secured their place three points ahead of England, leading to the question: Have the Lionesses inadvertently landed in a more favorable bracket?
Instead of a quarter-final clash with perennial rivals Germany, the Lionesses are set to face Sweden on Thursday (20:00 BST), with a potential semi-final encounter against either Norway or Italy looming should they advance.
Crucially, they also find themselves on the opposite side of the bracket from reigning World Cup champions Spain, precluding a meeting until the final.
While Sweden boasts a strong tournament pedigree, including third-place finishes at the 2019 and 2023 World Cups, their last major trophy dates back to the inaugural 1984 Euros.
Prior to this year’s Euros, Sweden’s form appeared less formidable than that of eight-time European champions Germany, marked by two draws against Wales in the Uefa Nations League. In contrast, Germany had won their last five Nations League matches, showcasing a prolific scoring record.
According to Opta’s pre-tournament projections, Sweden held a 6% chance of winning Euro 2025, compared to Germany’s 14%.
Should England overcome Sweden on Thursday, they will then compete against a team ranked outside the world’s top 10 for a coveted spot in the final.
Italy currently holds the 13th position, while Norway is ranked 16th.
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Had the Netherlands prevailed against France, England would have faced a daunting path, including a quarter-final against world number three Germany and a potential semi-final clash with Spain, ranked second.
“Finishing second is most definitely better,” remarked former England forward Toni Duggan on BBC Radio 5 Live.
“Avoiding Spain and Germany is an advantage, but Sweden also appear strong, promising an intriguing match.”
France manager Laurent Bonadei concurred, acknowledging that his team had “absolutely” been placed in the more challenging section of the draw.
He added, “All of our opponents will be eager to eliminate us; we remain a challenger with significant ambition.”
“To be considered favorites, one must win a trophy. We will be playing against Germany, who have won eight times… making them the favorites.”
Spain, having defeated England in the 2023 World Cup final, appear poised in their pursuit of a first Euros title.
While the Lionesses defeated Germany to secure the 2022 Euros, they have lost the six other encounters against Germany in the tournament.
The semi-finals present a more favorable landscape for England, following what promises to be a difficult quarter-final.
Sweden delivered a resounding 4-1 victory against Germany in the group stage and secured three wins, conceding only one goal, to top Group C.
Former England international Fran Kirby told BBC Radio 5 Live: “Sweden possesses a highly experienced squad. We faced them in the Euro 2022 semi-final, and they’ve started this tournament strongly. England needs to take note of this.”
“When the groups were drawn, everyone was talking about Germany, but Sweden has surpassed expectations in the group stage, making it a very interesting match.”
Adding to the challenge, England’s runner-up finish also means a shorter recovery period, with their match scheduled for Thursday instead of Saturday.
England has faced Sweden three times in the past three years, with one fixture holding particularly fond memories for their fans.
They secured a 4-0 victory in the semi-finals of Euro 2022, highlighted by Alessia Russo’s memorable backheeled goal.
England’s record goalscorer, Ellen White, who played in that fixture, expressed her concerns about the Lionesses facing Sweden in the quarter-finals.
“Regardless of the opponent, it was always going to be a tough challenge,” she told BBC Radio 5 Live. “We’ve faced Sweden numerous times, and everyone remembers that semi-final from 2022 where we beat them 4-0. We’ve also drawn with them recently.”
“Sweden looks very strong, convincingly beating Germany in their last game. I’m a bit terrified; I anticipate a high-scoring match, hopefully in England’s favor.”
Both teams are the only European nations to have reached the semi-final stage in each of the past three major tournaments.
The Scandinavian side has only twice, in 2009 and 2017, failed to reach the last four in their previous 11 Euros.
Since their meeting at the last Euros, the sides have played out 1-1 and 0-0 draws in the Nations League.
Prior to that, England lost 2-1 to Sweden in the bronze medal match at the 2019 World Cup.
Sarina Wiegman’s side have won two, drawn two, and lost five of the games they have played against Sweden in major competitions. Against Germany, they have won two, drawn one, and lost five.
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