England can secure a spot in the Euro 2025 quarter-finals with a victory over Wales on Sunday. Will the reigning champions deliver?
BBC Sport’s football analyst, Rachel Brown-Finnis, shares her predictions for all 31 matches in Switzerland.
In the second round of group games, she correctly predicted seven out of eight outcomes, improving from her 5/8 score in the first round. However, Portugal’s draw with Italy proved to be an unexpected result.
Readers also found that result surprising, with 50% predicting an Italian win. Like Rachel, the majority ended up with a score of 7/8 overall.
One game that saw near-universal agreement was Spain’s victory over Belgium, with 87% anticipating a win for the world champions. Among thousands of votes, only one reader accurately predicted the 6-2 scoreline. A notable achievement and the best prediction of the tournament thus far.
Can you and Rachel improve your predictions in the next round? Submit your own forecasts for the final group stage matches below.
Brown-Finnis has also selected her top two teams from each group to advance to the knockout stage, providing detailed reasoning for her choices.
She is backing England to win the Euros once again, but believes Wales will not progress beyond their group.
Brown-Finnis’ pre-tournament picks: Norway (winners) and Switzerland (runners-up).
I still expect Switzerland to advance, as they seem to be growing into the tournament. There’s not much separating these two teams, and a draw would likely be enough for the Swiss.
Finland hasn’t looked particularly threatening in attack. Their 1-0 win over Iceland was largely influenced by the red card to Iceland’s Hildur Antonsdottir.
Switzerland was unlucky against Norway in their opening match, but I believe they can succeed, and the home crowd will be a significant advantage. It would be a boost for the tournament if the host nation progresses.
A potential quarter-final against Spain looms, but it’s crucial not to look too far ahead.
Brown-Finnis’ prediction: 1-1
Norway has already secured their place as group winners, so this match presents an opportunity to experiment with different players. I anticipate some changes to the lineup.
Historically, they have underachieved relative to their attacking talent. Their performance against Switzerland was particularly poor, an unrecognizable showing for the Norwegian team. Given the quality on the pitch, they were performing at a 2/10 level, and some players might benefit from a rest against Iceland.
I can see Iceland getting a result in this game, as they will be disappointed to be already eliminated. They’ve drawn with Norway twice in the Nations League this year and will be eager to prove themselves and secure a win.
Brown-Finnis’ prediction: 1-1
Brown-Finnis’ pre-tournament picks: Spain (winners) and Portugal (runners-up).
If Italy loses to Spain and Portugal defeats Belgium, the quarter-finalist could be decided on goal difference. This is a concern for Italy, as Spain has demonstrated their ability to score multiple goals.
Spain needs to avoid defeat to top the group, and even if they rest players, I don’t believe it will significantly impact their performance. Their squad depth is such that the substitutes would likely start for most other international teams.
Spain is playing at an exceptional level and has been the most impressive team to watch thus far. They seem to have found their rhythm. Italy will present a different challenge, capable of maintaining possession, playing physically, and being somewhat disruptive, which could unsettle Spain.
Italy has scored some excellent goals and has shown significant improvement. They are aiming for a win and are unlikely to miss out on qualification, but this could be another open and exciting match.
Brown-Finnis’ prediction: 1-3
I initially expected Portugal to advance from the group behind Spain, but now it’s a significant challenge.
Facing Spain in the opener is always difficult, but the 1-1 draw against Italy was the pivotal game that hampered Portugal’s chances. I had them progressing, but Italy has improved more and demonstrated greater quality in the final third.
Portugal still has a chance and must seize it. They are known for their attacking prowess, but they haven’t consistently shown the necessary quality in the final stages.
Belgium hasn’t displayed the cutting edge needed to secure points, having faced teams that are difficult to play against. Belgium can be dangerous on the counter-attack, and a win here would be a consolation, but nothing more.
Brown-Finnis’ prediction: 2-2
Brown-Finnis’ pre-tournament picks: Germany (winners) and Sweden (runners-up).
12 July, 20:00 BST
Stadion Letzigrund, Zurich
World ranking: 6th v 3rd
Best Euros finish: Sweden: winners in 1984. Germany: Eight-time winners between 1989 & 2013.
Both teams have a strong tournament pedigree, but Sweden has been striving to repeat their 1984 triumph, while Germany boasts a record eight tournament wins.
Germany, without their injured captain Giulia Gwinn, will be determined to prove they can still contend for the title in this battle for the top spot in the group.
Sweden has yet to concede a goal, but maintaining another clean sheet against Germany’s attacking talent will be a significant challenge.
Germany had 16,000 fans at their game against Denmark and will have huge support in Zurich once again, but there will always be a sea of Sweden’s blue and yellow. The fans might come into it but both sets of players are used to playing in sellout stadiums both domestically and internationally and they are ready for the big stage.
Brown-Finnis’ prediction: 0-1
12 July, 20:00 BST
Allmend Stadion Luzern, Lucerne
World ranking: 27th v 12th
Best Euros finish: Poland: first-time qualifiers. Denmark: runners-up in 2017.
There is nothing riding on this game and Denmark will be so disappointed their tournament is over, with the likes of their captain Pernille Harder potentially playing her last tournament.
They had high hopes coming into Euro 2025, but to get Sweden and Germany in that group was a tough ask.
Poland haven’t been embarrassed on their major tournament debut and they have held their own.
They have made progress and that’s why they are here and they should be very happy with that. I would love them to score a goal and especially Ewa Pajor because she is a quality player. That would make history and she is probably the right person to do that for Poland.
Brown-Finnis’ prediction: 1-3
Brown-Finnis’ pre-tournament picks: England (winners) and France (runners-up).
13 July, 20:00 BST
St Jakob-Park, Basel
World ranking: 11th v 10th
Best Euros finish: The Netherlands: winners in 2017. France: semi-finals in 2022.
France’s attack at this tournament has been frightening, with only Spain scoring more than them. The potential of the squad hasn’t always translated into performances at major tournaments. Their team is impressive just on paper, so as a neutral it is great to see them use their players to get results and performances.
They are going to be hard to stop but they have conceded goals and shown teams how you can get at them. It will be interesting to see if there is any wavering.
The Netherlands will be desperate to bounce back and know they have the quality and the tactics to hurt France. It will be interesting whether they start with Lineth Beerensteyn in the nine shirt and put Vivianne Miedema a little bit deeper. Miedema was pretty much man-marked by England and had no breathing space.
England didn’t let the Dutch play at all, but being well-beaten by the Lionesses might just do what the France game did for England and reinvigorate them. It could be a really tasty game. France have scored loads of goals, but the Netherlands are here to get through to the knockouts.
Brown-Finnis’ prediction: 2-3
13 July, 20:00 BST
Arena St Gallen, St Gallen
World ranking: 5th v 30th
Best Euros finish: England: winners in 2022. Wales: first-time qualifiers.
Group D is going to go right to the wire and the head-to-head between the home nations will be the biggest game for both teams.
I had full confidence that with the obvious task at hand, England would bring a whole new level of performance against the Netherlands and they did absolutely that. They pulled out all the stops and Sarina Wiegman’s tactical tweaks and subtle changes worked brilliantly.
They all performed individually and collectively towards their maximum and it was all-round a really watertight performance. There were no cracks. It was as close to a perfect performance as you can have.
For Jess Fishlock to score Wales’ first ever goal at a major tournament was really monumental and poignant and couldn’t have been written better as a script. They didn’t get the result ultimately but to go toe-to-toe with France was really impressive.
England know that it is not going to be easy and will be relatively conservative. They won’t want to leave any gaps for Wales to nick something.
Wales would absolutely love to get something from England, especially if it means that England don’t go through to the knockout stages. They will try and rattle the Lionesses and want to go out with a bang. England need to not get drawn into that.
Brown-Finnis’ prediction: 2-0
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