Listen to Steve read this article
Has the relationship between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin deteriorated significantly? A prominent Russian newspaper suggests this may be the case, employing the metaphor of trains to depict the present state of U.S.-Russia relations.
“A head-on collision seems unavoidable,” the Moskovsky Komsomolets, a tabloid, recently asserted.
“The Trump locomotive and the Putin locomotive are speeding towards each other.
“And neither is about to turn off or stop and reverse.”
The ‘Putin locomotive’ presses forward with the ‘Special Military Operation,’ Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. The Kremlin leader has indicated no intention to cease hostilities or declare a lasting ceasefire.
Concurrently, the ‘Trump locomotive’ has amplified efforts to compel Moscow to end the conflict, announcing deadlines, ultimatums, threats of additional sanctions against Russia, and substantial tariffs on Russia’s trading partners, including India and China.
Further escalating matters, President Trump claims to have repositioned two U.S. nuclear submarines closer to Russia.
The shift from locomotives to nuclear submarines underscores the gravity of the situation.
But does this imply that the White House is genuinely on a “collision course” with the Kremlin concerning Ukraine?
Alternatively, does the visit to Moscow this week by Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, signal that despite the posturing, a negotiated resolution between Russia and the United States to end the conflict remains a possibility?
In the initial weeks of the second Trump presidency, Moscow and Washington appeared poised to revitalize their bilateral relations.
There was no indication of an impending collision; quite the contrary. At times, it seemed as though Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump were aligned, moving in the same direction. In February, the United States sided with Russia at the United Nations, opposing a European-drafted resolution that condemned Russia’s “aggression” in Ukraine.
During a telephone call that month, the two presidents discussed potential visits to each other’s countries, suggesting a Putin-Trump summit could occur imminently.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration directed pressure toward Kyiv rather than Moscow, engaging in disputes with traditional U.S. allies such as Canada and Denmark. American officials voiced strong criticism of NATO and European leaders in speeches and television interviews.
All of this was welcome news to the Kremlin.
“America now has more in common with Russia than Washington does with Brussels or with Kyiv,” Konstantin Blokhin, a political scientist from the Russian Academy of Sciences Centre for Security Studies, told the Izvestia newspaper in March.
The following month, the same newspaper proclaimed:
“The Trumpists are revolutionaries. They are wreckers of the system. They can only be supported in this. The unity of the West is no more. Geo-politically it is no longer an alliance. Trumpism has destroyed the Transatlantic consensus confidently and quickly.”
In the meantime, Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, became a frequent visitor to Russia, making four trips in just over two months and spending considerable time in discussions with Vladimir Putin. Following one meeting, the Kremlin leader presented him with a portrait of Donald Trump to deliver to the White House.
President Trump was reportedly “clearly touched” by the gesture.
However, President Trump sought more than just a painting from Moscow; he desired President Putin’s commitment to an unconditional comprehensive ceasefire in Ukraine.
Confident in Russia’s current battlefield advantage, Vladimir Putin has been reluctant to halt hostilities, despite asserting Moscow’s dedication to a diplomatic resolution.
This reluctance has led to increasing frustration on the part of Donald Trump with the Kremlin.
In recent weeks, he has condemned Russia’s relentless attacks on Ukrainian cities as “disgusting” and “disgraceful,” and accused President Putin of uttering “a lot of bullshit” regarding Ukraine.
Last month, Donald Trump issued a 50-day ultimatum to President Putin to end the war, threatening sanctions and tariffs, which he later reduced to ten days. The deadline is set to expire at the end of this week. As of now, there is no indication that Vladimir Putin will yield to pressure from Washington.
The question remains: how much pressure does Vladimir Putin genuinely feel?
“Because Donald Trump has changed so many deadlines and he’s twisted one way or another, I don’t think Putin takes him seriously,” according to Nina Khrushcheva, a professor of international affairs at The New School in New York City.
“Putin’s going to fight for as long as he can, or, unless Ukraine says, ‘We’re tired, we are willing to accept your conditions.’
“I think Putin sits there in the Kremlin and thinks that he’s fulfilling the dreams of the Russian tsars, and then the general secretaries such as Joseph Stalin, in showing the West that Russia should not be treated with disrespect.”
Based on the preceding narrative, it may appear that a head-on collision between the Putin and Trump locomotives is unavoidable.
However, this is not necessarily the case.
Donald Trump views himself as a skilled negotiator and, judging by appearances, has not abandoned his pursuit of a deal with Vladimir Putin.
Steve Witkoff is scheduled to return to Russia this week for discussions with the Kremlin leader. The nature of the offer he may present remains unknown, but some commentators in Moscow anticipate a greater emphasis on incentives than on coercion. It was noted that on Sunday, President Trump remarked that Russia “seem to be pretty good at avoiding sanctions.”
On Monday, Ivan Loshkarev, an associate professor of political theory at MGIMO University in Moscow, told Izvestia that to facilitate dialogue, Mr. Witkoff may present “advantageous offers of cooperation [to Russia] that would open up after a deal on Ukraine.”
Could this be sufficient to persuade the Kremlin to pursue peace after three-and-a-half years of war?
There are no guarantees.
After all, Vladimir Putin has yet to deviate from his maximalist demands on territory, Ukraine’s neutrality, and the future size of the Ukrainian army.
Donald Trump seeks a deal. Vladimir Putin seeks victory.
BBC InDepth is the destination on the website and app for insightful analysis, offering fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and in-depth reporting on the day’s most significant issues. Additionally, we feature thought-provoking content from across BBC Sounds and iPlayer. Feedback on the InDepth section can be submitted by clicking the button below.
Former top officials from the justice department during the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations were sent subpoenas
The 12-month pilot programme aims to curb visa overstays, an official notice says.
The Trump administration alleges political foes were behind attempts to falsely tie him to Russia in the run-up to his 2016 presidential win.
The UK-based brand has caused controversy with its plan to transform itself into an all-electric carmaker.
The actress stars in a controversial American Eagle advert that has become a political flashpoint in the US.