Hundreds of followers have convened in northern India to commemorate the Dalai Lama’s 90th birthday, as anticipation mounts regarding a potential announcement about his successor.
The Dalai Lama’s office has informed the BBC that he is scheduled to release a video message and a statement on Wednesday, though the content remains undisclosed.
In 1959, the Dalai Lama sought refuge in India following a failed uprising against Chinese governance in Tibet.
Establishing a government-in-exile in Dharamsala, a northern Indian hill town, he has since been viewed as a source of authority for those opposing Beijing’s stringent control over Tibet.
The milestone birthday on Sunday will be preceded by the three-day 15th Tibetan Religious Conference, commencing on Wednesday morning. Festivities commenced on Monday, marking the Dalai Lama’s birthday according to the Tibetan lunar calendar.
The celebrations will host over 7,000 attendees, including several Indian ministers. On Monday, images depicted the Dalai Lama bestowing a blessing upon Hollywood actor Richard Gere, a longtime devotee.
The Dalai Lama, who previously indicated he would disclose details regarding his succession around his 90th birthday, stated on Monday that “there will be some kind of a framework within which we can talk about the continuation of the institution of the Dalai Lamas,” without elaborating further.
The Nobel Peace Prize laureate has expressed conflicting views in the past regarding the continuation of the 600-year-old institution. Several years ago, he suggested his successor could be female or that the position might be discontinued altogether.
However, in recent years, he has also stated that if widespread support exists among Tibetans-in-exile for the position—which it does—the institution would persist, and his office would appoint a successor.
He has consistently maintained that his successor must be born outside of China, a stance that has provoked Beijing.
Despite the Dalai Lama’s advocacy for a “middle way” to resolve Tibet’s status—genuine self-rule within China—Beijing considers him a separatist. It asserts that the standard of living for people in Tibet has significantly improved under its governance.
Youdon Aukatsang, a member of the Tibetan parliament-in-exile, stated that she does not anticipate “a clear-cut procedure would be laid down” this week.
“I think everyone is kind of anticipating some kind of revelation from His Holiness about his reincarnation. But I do not expect a very specific kind of revelation,” she told the BBC.
The current Dalai Lama, she said, “is a binding and unifying force for the Tibetan movement,” and some Tibetans believe a successor should be identified soon due to concerns about the potential impact on the community and the movement’s future.
“The Dalai Lama institution is very important for the Tibetan struggle. It’s also a symbol of Tibetan identity and a beacon of our spiritual refuge. That will continue. I think there will be a vacuum, but we have to continue, we don’t have a choice,” she said.
“We have very, very big shoes to fill but we have to fill them, right? I think many people will have to get into that role, one person will not be enough.”
Experts suggest that if he announces a successor, China is also expected to name its own Dalai Lama.
“China will argue that only the Communist Party of China based in Beijing has the authority to find the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama,” Dibyesh Anand, professor of International Relations at the University of Westminster, told the BBC.
“After a period of a few months or a few years, they will have their own proteges identify a small boy as the next Dalai Lama and impose that. Of course, a majority of Tibetans are going to reject it and the majority of people in the world are going to make fun of it. But remember China has immense authority in terms of resources so they will try to impose that.”
Mr. Aukatsang contends that “despite all these years of trying to control the hearts and minds of Tibetan people inside Tibet,” Beijing has “completely failed.”
A Dalai Lama chosen by China, he states, “will not be recognised, not only by the Tibetans but the world will not recognise it because China doesn’t have the legitimacy to find the future Dalai Lama.”
“We are concerned but we know that irrespective of our concern, China will come up with their own Dalai Lama, we will call it the Chinese-recognised Dalai Lama. I am not worried that Dalai Lama will have any credibility in the Tibetan world or the Buddhist world.”
Tibetan Buddhists believe that their senior monks are reincarnated, and a Dalai Lama is selected by Buddhist officials if they are convinced that the chosen individual embodies the soul of his predecessor.
The current—14th—Dalai Lama was born on July 6, 1935, in a small Tibetan village to a farming family and was named Lhamo Dhondub. At the age of two, a search party of Buddhist officials recognized him as the reincarnation of the 13 previous Dalai Lamas.
According to his official biography, the decisive evidence emerged when officials presented him with possessions belonging to his predecessor. The toddler correctly identified items belonging to the 13th Dalai Lama, stating, “It’s mine. It’s mine.”
Enthroned before the age of four, he received his education at a Tibetan monastery and holds a doctorate in Buddhist philosophy.
However, in 1950, when he was 15, troops from Mao Zedong’s newly established Communist government entered Tibet. A year later, China drafted a 17-point agreement legitimizing Tibet’s incorporation into China.
A Tibetan revolt in 1959, seeking an end to Chinese rule, was suppressed, resulting in the deaths of thousands of protesters.
The Dalai Lama fled to India on foot with 10,000 followers and established a government-in-exile in Dharamsala. In 2011, he relinquished his political role but remains the foremost spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism.
Some of those who fled alongside him still aspire to return to Tibet.
“My faith is that I will return to Tibet. If not me, my younger generations will definitely return,” said Lobsang Choedon, 84, who attended Monday’s celebrations.
Choedon’s daughter and grandchildren were all born—and have spent their entire lives—in India. Nevertheless, her 15-year-old grandson, Ngawang Lhundup, feels a strong connection to his ancestral homeland.
Having listened to stories about Tibet since childhood, he would consider visiting Tibet even under Chinese rule.
“But if it was free from the Chinese invasion, I would be more than delighted to go back to Tibet.”
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