Reform’s strong showing in Thursday’s local council elections is undeniable. The party secured the most votes, seats, and overall control in the majority of councils.
While their vote share across the 23 participating councils reached only 31%, falling short of a majority, their performance significantly outpaced established parties.
Reform garnered 31% of the vote, considerably ahead of the Conservatives at 23%, the Liberal Democrats at 17%, and Labour at 14% in the areas voting on Thursday.
This contrasts sharply with their 2024 general election result: 14% of the vote and only 5 out of 650 Westminster seats. However, their leading position in these local elections proved advantageous under the first-past-the-post system.
Reform secured 677 council seats—41% of those contested—a 10-point advantage over their vote share, highlighting both the electoral system’s impact and the party’s ability to concentrate votes. This resulted in control of as many as 10 councils, a feat surpassing even UKIP’s peak popularity before the 2015 general election.
Illustrative examples include Staffordshire (72% of seats on 41% of the vote), Kent (70% of seats on 37% of the vote), and Derbyshire (66% of seats on 37% of the vote).
First-past-the-post amplified losses for Conservatives and Labour, unlike in previous elections. Reform captured nearly half the seats these parties defended.
The accompanying BBC map, the most detailed local election mapping ever produced, illustrates Reform’s support variation across wards. This variation reveals significant patterns.
The data suggests strong support among 2016 Brexit and 2019 Boris Johnson voters, indicating the party’s success is more than a fleeting protest vote.
Reform performed markedly better in Leave-voting wards (45% average vote share in wards with over 65% Leave vote) than in Remain-voting wards (19% average vote share).
Brexit remains a crucial political fault line, with Reform’s appeal heavily concentrated amongst those who supported Brexit. Even in Remain wards, their 19% vote share highlights the party’s substantial gains.
This Brexit division is also reflected demographically. Reform struggled in areas with high concentrations of university graduates and professionals, performing better in working-class areas.
Reform achieved 39% in working-class wards compared to 19% in more affluent areas. Their highest vote share (65.1%) was in Thornley & Wheatley Hill (Durham), followed by Romney Marsh (Kent) and Chadsmoor (Staffordshire).
Support averaged 43% in wards with a high proportion of adults lacking educational qualifications, dropping to 19% in wards with many graduates. Their lowest vote share (3.7%) was in Oxford’s Parks ward.
Reform’s stance on immigration may also influence their appeal. They averaged 22% in wards with significant minority populations, compared to 33% in predominantly white areas.
In summary, Reform’s success is most pronounced in areas sometimes described as ‘left-behind’ Britain—regions less impacted by globalization and university expansion, and exhibiting more conservative views on immigration.
The Conservatives and Labour need to engage more effectively with this segment of the population to recover from Thursday’s losses.
While Reform seems to attract more former Conservative voters, their average vote share was strikingly similar in both Labour and Conservative wards (32% in each).
Consequently, Labour lost seats to Reform at a rate comparable to the Conservatives, costing them control of Doncaster council. Their success against the Liberal Democrats and Greens was more limited (22% average vote share).
Liberal Democrat and Green wards, unlike many Conservative and Labour ones, have a high concentration of university graduates.
Reform’s success reflects an electorate’s waning faith in Conservatives and Labour’s performance. Their greatest appeal remains in a specific segment of Britain that significantly shifted the political landscape with Brexit, and has done so again.
John Curtice is Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde, and Senior Fellow, National Centre for Social Research and ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’.
Analysis by Patrick English, Steve Fisher, Robert Ford, and Lotte Hargrave
Map produced by Libby Rogers, Muskeen Liddar, Jess Carr and Callum Thomson
Correction 7 May: In an earlier version of the map, the vote share figures for Romney Marsh and Chadmoor were transposed. We have updated the graphic and text to correct this.
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