“A sliver here and a sliver there” – within days, millions of voters will take part in what can only be described as a distinctly unusual series of elections.
Forget expectations of sweeping, nationwide victories. Prepare instead for outcomes shaped by narrow margins between five major parties, which will decide control of local councils across England and a single seat in Westminster.
These results will significantly influence the political landscape in the coming months. From Friday, the rise of Reform could pose real challenges for both major traditional parties—and for the first time, may require the newcomer to defend a tangible track record.
Both leading parties are poised for tough nights. Labour’s broad coalition of supporters began to fragment almost immediately after their move into No 10.
Senior government sources point to the difficult realities faced on taking office as a key reason, with Sir Keir Starmer openly acknowledging the need to “be unpopular”—an unusual goal for any politician.
Yet, frank insiders concede the government “appeared uncertain” from the outset. “They didn’t arrive with a bold vision,” one source said, while many voters expressed dismay over ministerial perks and the winter fuel allowance decision.
Labour strategists stress a critical truth—that these local contests represent “us fighting in the shires,” as one pointed out.
Disappointing results in traditionally Conservative strongholds, where the party flourished in 2021, will not come as a shock. As a cabinet member notes, “these aren’t our core areas, so our base is weaker here.”
Still, Labour faces the risk of losing mayoralties—and there’s less room for explanation if they fail to hold what was once a safe seat in Runcorn, where the by-election looks challenging.
After ten months in office, Labour could soon feel the brunt of governing reality.
The Conservatives have also set expectations low, with leaders repeatedly acknowledging that the outcome could mirror July’s “absolute, merciless” defeat.
Party figures say, “nowhere is safe,” and some sources privately admit concerns that losing control of all remaining councils is a real possibility.
Underlying such public pessimism about seat losses, warns another veteran, is a deeper fear that “we might not yet have reached rock bottom.”
Supporters of leader Kemi Badenoch contend that restoring the party remains a long-term endeavour, praising her efforts to quell the infighting that has plagued the Tories in recent years.
Despite this, there is skepticism even among Conservatives about her long-term tenure, with few ready to bet she will certainly lead into the next national contest.
According to one senior figure, “she believed it would be her versus Starmer, but now it’s her against Starmer, Farage, and Davey.”
This is a “pick and mix” election, with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK providing fresh competition. Their senior strategists describe these elections as “additional steps towards power.”
Rival parties report Reform is investing heavily, particularly in digital campaigning, focusing on national themes such as immigration and net zero, and “putting Farage front and centre” to attract attention.
Reform insiders are optimistic. They aim to claim Runcorn from Labour (though do not count on it), but are especially focused on securing mayoral victories and an expanded local presence.
However, results short of major breakthroughs could undermine their bold claims of being a genuine alternative for No 10—and perhaps challenge pre-election polling yet again.
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While Reform is making headlines, the Liberal Democrats are equally ambitious. They hope to surpass the Conservatives in council control, especially in counties such as Oxfordshire, Wiltshire, Buckinghamshire and across the South West.
Leader Sir Ed Davey has been engaging in stand-out campaign stunts—from meeting hedgehogs to brandishing British pork chops on TikTok—eagerly seeking to connect with voters.
Following last July, the Liberal Democrats have set out to further undermine traditional Conservative local infrastructure, particularly at the county council level.
Party insiders suggest their activists are energised and even growing in number, spurred on in part by the political climate in the US under President Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, the Greens hope to sustain their recent momentum in council elections across England.
Last year, the Greens achieved their best results in two decades and gained majority control of a council for the first time, expanding their roster of councillors.
This year they plan to increase representation in counties like Shropshire, Gloucestershire and Kent, where they already have a notable presence.
Green MPs have kept a lower profile compared to Reform. At a time when the climate agenda features less prominently in the main parties, the Greens will seek to affirm their national relevance.
Elections also provide a vital measure of party campaigning capability, with distinct questions for each this year.
For Labour, the question is whether their operation is as robust as it was at July’s high point; early signs suggest a less intense campaign, which may be expected given the regions at stake.
For the Conservatives, the key issue is the strength of their once-formidable ground game after recent setbacks; while faithful campaigners remain active, critics note that their local presence is diminished.
Both the Liberal Democrats and Greens have long focused on effective local activism, building influence in targeted areas.
The sharpest test lies ahead for Reform, a party adept at generating national attention, particularly online and in broadcast media.
With five-party competition, many battles could be decided by modest vote shares—a “sliver here and a sliver there.”
These elections are expected to highlight the fragmentation of the electorate and the decline of traditional voting blocs, further fuelling debates about the end of two-party dominance.
With votes split among numerous parties, more councils are likely to end up with no single party in overall control.
This scenario, known as “no overall control”, means the largest party will need to collaborate with other groups to govern effectively.
This may soon pose a tangible question for Conservatives after weeks of theoretical debate: will they cooperate with their increasingly influential rivals in Reform UK?
Crucially, should Reform achieve significant gains, it will face the challenge of governing and delivering on its promises for the first time—a noteworthy milestone.
Senior sources across both Labour and the Conservatives privately concur that “the most notable outcome this Thursday will be that Reform will have a record to defend.”
Smaller parties appear poised to make substantial gains next week. If the General Election was dubbed the “ABC election – Anyone But the Conservatives”, then these may become known as the “ABB ballots – Anyone But the Big parties”.
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