Arsenal, left, currently lead the Premier League, while Wolves, right, are at the bottom.
Arsenal are poised to spend Christmas Day atop the Premier League standings, contrasting sharply with the positions of Wolves, Burnley, and West Ham, who find themselves in the relegation zone.
As the season approaches its midway point, historical data offers insights into the potential outcomes of both the title race and the battle against relegation.
In the Premier League era, the team leading the table on Christmas Day has gone on to secure the title in 17 out of 33 seasons, representing a marginal advantage.
Notably, Arsenal‘s own history presents a contrasting narrative, as they have failed to convert their Christmas Day lead into a title victory on all four previous occasions.
Prior to Mikel Arteta’s tenure, the Gunners had only been in this position twice. This marks the third time in four seasons they are atop the league at Christmas.
Their supporters hope that lessons learned from past seasons will empower Arteta’s team to fend off Manchester City and finally deliver the trophy they have coveted since 2004.
“Considering Arsenal‘s past experiences of leading at Christmas, one would expect them to have learned from the mistakes that prevented them from winning the title in previous seasons,” former Manchester City defender Nedum Onuoha stated on Football Focus.
The margin for error remains slim, however, as Arsenal‘s lead is a mere two points, while the average lead for a Christmas Day leader is four points.
In fact, the only team leading at Christmas with a smaller lead than Arsenal in the last 12 seasons was Arsenal themselves two years prior.
Yet, historical trends suggest that a two-point advantage might prove sufficient.
Arsenal represents the eighth instance in Premier League history of a team leading by two points at Christmas, with five of the previous seven going on to win the title, including the last four.
Intriguingly, Arsenal remains the only team to have won the Premier League without ever being top at Christmas, having secured all three of their titles while trailing the leaders at this juncture.
They were sixth and 13 points behind leaders Man Utd in 1997-98, second and three points behind Newcastle in 2001-02, and third and one point behind Man Utd at Christmas time in 2003-04.
The 13-point gap in 1997-98 represents the largest deficit overcome by a team leading at Christmas to eventually win the title (Arsenal had a game in hand), while the lowest position for an eventual champion at this stage was eighth, achieved by Manchester City during the Covid-delayed 2020-21 season.
Conversely, the team in second on Christmas Day has only triumphed in two of the past 17 seasons, both times with Manchester City achieving the feat.
Indeed, in each of the last five seasons where the Christmas leaders failed to win the title, Manchester City emerged as the ultimate victors.
Many Arsenal supporters may experience a sense of déjà vu, as the prospect of leading the Premier League at Christmas only to be overtaken by a relentless Pep Guardiola-led side has become a familiar narrative.
The reduction of a seven-point lead over Manchester City to a mere two points in the span of five games is unlikely to inspire confidence.
“We’re back on top of the table, but we’re not focusing excessively on City or other teams,” said Bukayo Saka. “We’re in control now. We know if we win every week we’ll stay there.”
Arteta added: “The only thing we can control is our own performance and results, and we know how long and how tough this league is. That’s it.”
Manchester City boasts a considerable advantage in experience. Guardiola’s managerial career includes six Premier League titles, three Bundesliga titles with Bayern Munich, and three La Liga titles with Barcelona, while Arteta has yet to win a league title as a manager.
Guardiola’s squad is replete with Premier League winners, players adept at maintaining strong form throughout an entire campaign. In contrast, only Gabriel Jesus within the Arsenal squad has Premier League-winning experience, having secured four titles during his time with Manchester City. Arsenal‘s recent history is marked by relinquished leads rather than serial victories.
However, this season could deviate from previous patterns. Manchester City has appeared less dominant than in previous seasons, already suffering four defeats compared to Arsenal‘s two.
“We will be there. If they follow me we will be there, but we have to improve,” said Guardiola.
“I know the level in Europe, in the Premier League, I know Arsenal and the other teams and how tough they are. It is not enough.
“The spirit is there. Last season we did not have the spirit or aggression or hunger – all the attributes they need. It is not about the highlights and how good the actions are, there is something that comes from inside where we will recover from the Club World Cup.”
City’s attack is flowing, having scored 10 more goals than Arsenal, but having also conceded six more – you feel the title race could be defined by whether City’s goals can outshine Arsenal‘s solidity.
Historically, only four teams bottom on Christmas Day have managed to avoid relegation in the Premier League, with Wolves being the most recent example in 2022-23.
However, with a mere two points and a 16-point gap to safety, Wolves would require a succession of miracles to defy the odds once again.
Second-bottom Burnley faces a more favorable outlook, with almost half the teams in their position at Christmas having successfully avoided relegation, although the sole instance in the past eight seasons occurred when Eddie Howe guided Newcastle to 11th place in 2021-22.
West Ham supporters have the strongest grounds for optimism, as teams in 18th place have survived in two out of three seasons on average, most recently Nottingham Forest in 2022-23 and Wolves last time out.
The most probable scenario is that one of West Ham, Burnley, and Wolves will escape relegation, a fate that has befallen just over half the time, with two teams surviving in 12 of the previous 33 seasons.
The three teams bottom at Christmas have never all survived, while only four times in Premier League history have all three been relegated, although two of those occurred recently, in 2020-21 and 2023-24.
Regarding potential replacements in the relegation zone, Norwich holds the record for the highest-placed team at Christmas to eventually face the drop, finishing seventh in 1994-95, with 30 points and 11 points above the drop.
However, that occurred in a 42-game season. In a 38-game campaign, the best team on Christmas Day to be relegated were Blackpool in 2010-11, who were 10th with 22 points but finished 19th with 39 points.
Newcastle in 2008-09 were 12th with 22 points and went down, while the most points a relegated side has been above the bottom three at Christmas is seven by Reading in 2007-08, who were 12th with 21 points.
CORRECTION 21 DECEMBER: This story has been corrected after originally stating that “none of the Arsenal squad have won a Premier League”. Gabriel Jesus won four league titles while playing for Manchester City.
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