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Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has announced the formation of a new political party, vowing to “build a democratic movement that can take on the rich and powerful.”
While the party’s name is yet to be revealed, the MP for Islington North stated the intention is for the group to contest May’s local elections, with an eye towards the next general election, anticipated in approximately four years.
This new endeavor holds the potential to reshape the political landscape, with Labour and the Green Party appearing to be the most vulnerable to potential vote losses.
A recent poll conducted by More In Common, surveying approximately 2,000 Britons, explored hypothetical voting preferences for a Corbyn-led party, suggesting it could garner around 10% of the vote.
This outcome could potentially reduce Labour’s vote share by three percentage points and simultaneously extend Reform UK’s lead in the polls by the same margin.
Luke Tryl, UK Director at More In Common, suggests that if these projections materialize in a general election, Labour risks losing seats directly to Corbyn’s party. Moreover, the fragmentation of the left-wing vote could create opportunities for gains by Reform UK or the Conservatives.
“In an era of very fragmented politics, small shares could make the difference across the board, and it is totally conceivable that the performance of this left-wing party could be the difference between a Labour-led government and a Nigel Farage Reform-led government on current polling,” Mr. Tryl added.
Corbyn’s party may find support in areas where pro-Gaza independent candidates have demonstrated strength, including Birmingham, parts of East and North London, and North-West England.
Research from More In Common indicates that a Corbyn-led party would resonate most strongly with those under 26, suggesting that inner-city student areas could be key target demographics.
Many of these urban areas are scheduled to hold local elections in May, providing the first real test for the nascent party.
However, polling data suggests that the Green Party – a destination for many disillusioned former Labour voters – stands to lose the most support to a Corbyn-led party.
The Greens finished second to Labour in 40 constituencies during last year’s general election, and a surging left-wing party could erode their support base.
Much depends on whether the Greens can forge electoral pacts with the new party, agreeing to stand down in constituencies where the other party has a stronger chance of victory.
The four pro-Gaza MPs who formed an independent alliance with Corbyn following the general election are expected to form the core of the new party, along with former Labour MP Zarah Sultana.
The question remains: will they collaborate with the Greens?
While Corbyn has indicated a willingness to cooperate, whether a formal agreement will be reached remains to be seen.
James Schneider, a close associate of Corbyn involved in the new group, told the BBC that a “pact with the Greens” would make “perfect sense for our new party.”
Green Party leadership candidate Zack Polanski has also expressed his willingness to “work with anyone who wants to take on Reform and this government.”
However, his rival, Green MP Adrian Ramsay, cautioned against his party becoming “a Jeremy Corbyn support act,” emphasizing the need to maintain a “distinct” identity and broad appeal beyond the traditional left.
Rob Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester, views a Corbyn-led party as a significant threat to the Greens.
“Corbyn has a level of name recognition, a level of celebrity, that no one in the Green Party can possibly match,” he noted on BBC Radio 4’s PM program.
“They have one big advantage which is that they have a core issue, the environment, which is one that Corbyn doesn’t necessarily seem particularly interested in.
“So there is a world in which they could divide up the pie, so to speak, but they’re going to need to think hard about that or they risk being pushed aside.”
A separate YouGov poll of over 2,500 Britons conducted earlier this month revealed that while 18% are open to voting for a new left-wing party led by Corbyn, only 9% of this group would not consider voting for any of the five existing major national parties.
Highlighting the volatile and unpredictable nature of the political landscape, 11% of this group also expressed openness to voting for Reform UK.
Much could shift in the four years leading up to the next general election.
Luke Tryl suggests that if Labour frames the election as a choice between Sir Keir Starmer and Reform UK’s Nigel Farage for prime minister, many on the left may opt for tactical voting.
In this scenario, voters sympathetic to Corbyn’s party might reluctantly support Labour to prevent a Reform candidate from winning in their constituency.
The party has also faced a somewhat turbulent launch, marked by confusion surrounding its name and leadership, following Sultana’s seemingly premature announcement of her intention to form a new party with Corbyn earlier this month.
Labour sources have dismissed their former leader’s latest endeavor, stating that “the electorate has twice given their verdict on a Jeremy Corbyn-led party” in the 2017 and 2019 elections.
Cabinet minister Peter Kyle went on the offensive on Times Radio, accusing Corbyn of “posturing” and of not being “a serious politician.”
Mr. Schneider argues that the impact of the new party will extend beyond the number of MPs it manages to secure.
The party claims that over 200,000 individuals have already registered to get involved in less than 24 hours.
While there is no guarantee that all will become formal members, this suggests a degree of public enthusiasm for the idea.
“We’re going to be having a huge outside influence on the political debate in this country,” Mr. Schneider stated.
“Of course the long-term goal is to win elections and enter office and be really in power.
“But in order to have real sustainable power you need to have people coming with you and have your foundations in the society you want to be building up.”
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