The UK government attributes the rise in Channel migrant crossings to favorable weather conditions and the practice of human smugglers overloading small vessels. Home Office data reveals a surge in “red days”—days deemed suitable for crossings—peaking in 2024-25, coinciding with a significant increase in severely overcrowded boats.
The Conservatives and Reform party criticize the government for seemingly blaming weather patterns, while the government counters that it’s addressing a flawed asylum system inherited from its predecessor.
Official figures show 190 red days in the year to April 2025—an 80% increase year-on-year and a record high. Red days are determined by meteorological factors influencing crossing feasibility.
This year, 14,812 people have arrived via small boats—a 40% increase compared to the same period last year. Saturday alone saw nearly 1,200 arrivals.
BBC Verify consulted Peter Walsh of the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory. While acknowledging weather as a factor, he emphasized the greater influence of smuggling operations and the number of individuals seeking UK entry. He questioned whether migrants would readily postpone crossings due to short periods of inclement weather.
The Home Office, while acknowledging the exploitation of favorable weather by smugglers, highlights its efforts to reform the asylum system, citing increased law enforcement powers and international cooperation leading to the prevention of 9,000 crossings this year.
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp criticized the government’s explanation as inadequate, while Reform MP Lee Anderson described it as pathetic.
The data also indicates a rise in severely overcrowded boats. In the year to April 2025, 33 boats carried 80 or more people, compared to 11 the previous year and only one in 2022-23. Although the number of people per boat increased, the total number of boats decreased from 1,116 in 2021-22 to 738 last year. Last year saw a record number of deaths during Channel crossings, attributed by the Home Office to increased overcrowding in unsafe vessels.
Record Number of Deaths During Channel Crossings
Suggest a topic for BBC Verify to investigate