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With just one match remaining, will Euro 2025 conclude with the reigning champions retaining their title, or will the world champions claim their first European Championship?
BBC Sport football analyst Rachel Brown-Finnis has maintained a flawless record in the knockout stages, correctly predicting that England and Spain would meet in Sunday’s final at St Jakob-Park in Basel.
Brown-Finnis is forecasting the outcome of all 31 matches in Switzerland alongside BBC readers, and has accurately predicted 22 out of 30 games thus far (73%).
Readers also accurately predicted both semi-final results, bringing the collective total to 20 out of 30 (67%).
From a combined total of 100,000 predictions submitted by BBC readers for both semi-final matches, 87% anticipated an England victory over Italy, and 80% expected Spain to defeat Germany.
Who will you be supporting in the final? Share your predictions below.
Rachel Brown-Finnis spoke with BBC Sport’s Chris Bevan.
World ranking: 5th v 2nd
Best previous Euros finish: England – winners 2022. Spain – semi-finals 1997.
England are aware they are capable of a higher level of performance than displayed in their quarter-final and semi-final victories against Sweden and Italy. Their success on Sunday hinges on delivering their best performance from the opening whistle.
Against a formidable team like Spain, defensive lapses are unacceptable. England must maintain an impenetrable defense.
Germany’s defense was exceptional against Spain in their semi-final, and goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger had a stellar tournament. However, a single late error proved decisive.
Spain boasts numerous world-class players, including Aitana Bonmati, arguably the best, who can capitalize on any mistake.
However, England will not be intimidated. There is no chance of that.
From an external perspective, defeating the world champions might seem daunting. Spain outperformed the Lionesses in the 2023 World Cup final and are currently on a 10-game winning streak, including a victory over England in June.
However, Spain’s last defeat, in February, came against the Lionesses at Wembley. This recent victory provides a valuable source of reassurance leading up to this significant occasion.
Reflecting on that match, I believe England is capable of repeating their success this time, and the players undoubtedly share this conviction.
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Bonmatí sends Spain to Euro 2025 final to face England
Reviewing Germany’s semi-final against Spain would be ideal preparation for England, particularly in terms of identifying a system to exploit their opponents.
Germany demonstrated strong defensive organization while also generating several scoring opportunities. England must replicate this approach to put pressure on Spain, while also exhibiting greater clinical precision when chances arise, as they inevitably will.
Spain’s vulnerability lies in their high defensive line, which can be exploited with swift counter-attacks and pace in behind.
Therefore, the pace of Chloe Kelly and Lauren Hemp will be crucial for the Lionesses, alongside Alessia Russo’s forward runs.
Goalkeeper Hannah Hampton can also play a pivotal role, recalling England’s goal against the Netherlands in the group stage, where her long ball to Russo set up Lauren James for a stunning strike from the edge of the area.
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‘Lionesses have lift off!’ James fires England ahead
Goalkeepers often prove decisive in closely contested matches, whether in penalty shootouts or open play, so Hampton’s overall performance is likely to be crucial for England’s chances of victory.
She has been consistently solid throughout these Euros, displaying excellent footwork and exceptional handling. Hampton has commanded her area effectively and appears to be growing in confidence with each match.
If the outcome hinges on a battle between her and Spain’s Cata Coll, I would unequivocally back Hampton.
I want to see Coll tested, as she has not faced significant pressure thus far in Switzerland, with Spain largely untroubled in their matches.
One way to achieve this is through our set-piece deliveries. Spain has appeared somewhat vulnerable when defending them, and I would not be surprised if a free-kick or corner leads to an England goal on Sunday.
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‘Sorry England fans, you’ve got another exciting game to come!’
I have predicted an England victory at Euro 2025 from the outset, and I stand by that prediction.
My support has not been blind faith. Since their opening group game defeat to France, they have essentially been playing knockout football, demonstrating the resilience to overcome every challenge.
Their progress has not been seamless, but Sarina Wiegman consistently finds a way to win, and I believe she will do the same against Spain.
The match will undoubtedly be extremely close, given the minimal difference between the two teams, but I anticipate a one-goal victory for the Lionesses.
After requiring penalties in the quarter-finals and extra-time in the semi-finals, I foresee them securing victory within 90 minutes this time.
Brown-Finnis’ prediction: 2-1
Euro 2025 final: England v Spain
Sunday, 27 July at 17:00 BST
St Jakob-Park, Basel
Watch on BBC One and BBC iPlayer, listen on BBC Radio 5 Live, 5 Sports Extra and BBC Sounds, follow live text on BBC Sport website and app
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