Following scrutiny from Labour MPs, the government has released details of its revised plan to reform health and disability benefits.
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall stated that changes to Personal Independence Payment (PIP) will only apply to new claimants.
She also confirmed that payments to existing recipients of the health-related component of Universal Credit, formerly known as incapacity benefit, will no longer be frozen.
However, government analysis assessing the impact of the planned welfare reforms estimates that an additional 150,000 individuals will experience “relative poverty” as a consequence.
BBC Verify examines the number of benefit claimants and the reasons behind the significant increase in recent years.
In 2019, nearly three million working-age adults (16-64) in England and Wales were claiming either disability or incapacity benefit, representing 1 in 13 of the population.
As of March 2025, this figure had risen to approximately four million, or 1 in 10 of the population, according to research from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).
This increase is largely attributed to claimants citing mental health conditions.
According to IFS data, the ‘mental and behavioural disorders’ category (including conditions like ADHD) accounted for 44% of all claims in 2024, up from around 39% in 2015.
IFS research also reveals that 69% of new 25-year-old claimants were primarily living with mental and behavioural disorders, compared to only 22% of new 55-year-old claimants.
Eligibility for PIP, a benefit supporting working-age disabled individuals with daily living costs, is determined through an assessment.
Under the current assessment system, claimants are scored on a zero to 12 scale by a health professional based on their ability to perform everyday tasks such as washing, dressing, and preparing food.
Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, approximately three-quarters of these assessments were conducted in person.
When in-person assessments were suspended during the pandemic, most were transitioned to telephone or video calls.
Although initially a temporary measure, these remote assessments have become the norm.
Currently, fewer than 10% of PIP assessments are conducted in person, according to government data.
Some have suggested that the decline in face-to-face assessments may have encouraged more applications, as individuals may have avoided the potential stress of an in-person appointment.
However, analysts state that there is no substantive evidence to confirm this.
Louise Murphy, an economist at the Resolution Foundation, notes that approval rates for both face-to-face and remote assessments have remained largely unchanged since the pandemic.
“What has changed is that more people are claiming PIP. Government figures show approximately 1,000 new awards are made each day,” she says.
While rising mental health conditions have contributed to the increase in PIP claims, independent researchers remain uncertain about the precise causes behind the upward trend.
Ms. Murphy identifies the rising state pension age as one possible factor.
“The number of people classified as ‘working-age’ increases as the state pension age continues to rise,” she points out.
Under current regulations, individuals reaching state pension age (currently 66 and set to rise to 67 by the end of 2028) are typically ineligible to make a new PIP claim, although existing recipients will continue to receive it.
This increase in the state pension age expands the working-age population, placing additional pressure on the system.
Ms. Murphy estimates this accounts for approximately one-fifth of the increase in health and disability-related benefit claims over the past decade.
Researchers suggest that another potential factor is that public understanding of the benefits system, and potential entitlements, may have improved during the pandemic and cost of living crisis.
Eduin Latimer, a senior research economist at the IFS, concurs.
“There’s a lot of evidence that people claim health-related benefits in response to economic shocks.”
While there are plausible explanations for the rise in PIP claimants, Mr. Latimer states, “we don’t really know the answer.”
The government has announced a wider review into PIP, led by Work and Pensions Minister Stephen Timms, with a report due by next Autumn.
The government initially projected its reforms would save around £5.5 billion annually by 2030. However, following the concessions, that saving is now expected to be £2.5 billion.
Even with the initial reforms, the overall working-age welfare bill was projected to rise to approximately £72.3 billion in 2029-30.
The government’s revised impact assessment suggests that approximately 150,000 more people will be left in relative poverty (after housing costs) by 2030.
This is a reduction from the 250,000 people left in relative poverty in the original assessment.
The Prime Minister’s official spokesman stated that the modelling “doesn’t reflect the wider action we’re taking to lift people out of poverty and raise living standards, especially through work.”
The government states this includes £1 billion in support measures to assist disabled and long-term sick individuals in returning to work.
Clarification 2 July: This article has been updated to clarify that, under current rules, individuals of state pension age are generally ineligible to make new claims for PIP.
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