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The conflict in Ukraine, triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, persists without a clear resolution in sight.
On the eastern front, Russia continues its relentless and costly offensive. The country experiences nightly aerial bombardments, while Russian refineries and energy infrastructure are consistently targeted by Ukrainian drone strikes.
Amidst this backdrop, the Kremlin has confirmed plans for a forthcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. The US leader stated on Wednesday, “I’m here to get [the war] over with.”
Despite three rounds of talks between Russia and Ukraine, facilitated by Trump between May and July, no significant progress toward peace has been achieved. Trump may believe that his direct involvement could finally lead to a ceasefire.
However, the differences between Kyiv and Moscow remain substantial, potentially hindering even Trump-mediated negotiations.
In a memorandum presented to Ukraine by Russia in June, Moscow outlined its maximalist demands for a “final settlement” of the conflict. These include the recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, as well as Ukraine’s agreement to demilitarization, neutrality, the absence of foreign military involvement, and the holding of new elections.
According to Russian political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya, “The Russian side can frame this in a dozen different ways, creating the impression that Moscow is open to concessions and serious negotiation. But the core position remains unchanged: Russia wants Kyiv to surrender.”
Following a meeting between Putin and US envoy Steve Witkoff, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Wednesday that Washington has gained a clearer understanding of the conditions under which Russia would be prepared to end the war.
Whether these conditions have evolved remains unknown. However, just last week, Putin referenced the June memorandum, stating that Russia’s objectives were established then and remain consistent.
Therefore, despite the Kremlin’s agreement to a Trump-Putin meeting, there is little indication that Moscow is willing to compromise on its stringent preconditions.
This raises the question: why would Putin agree to talks at this juncture?
One possibility is that engaging in dialogue could avert the secondary sanctions Trump has threatened to impose on Moscow’s trading partners as early as Friday. The Kremlin may also believe it can persuade Trump of the validity of its conditions for ending the war.
Early in his second term, Trump appeared more aligned with Russia than Ukraine, labeling Zelensky a “dictator” and suggesting he bore responsibility for the conflict.
While he has since expressed impatience with Putin – “he’s just tapping me along”, he remarked in April – Trump has also declined to state whether he believes the Russian leader has been dishonest regarding his willingness to pursue a ceasefire.
Whether due to personal affinity or a shared worldview, Trump has consistently hesitated to fully condemn Putin’s actions.
During their meeting in Helsinki in 2018, during Trump’s first term as president, many were astonished to witness Trump siding with the Kremlin over accusations of Russian interference in the 2016 US election and attributing blame for the strained US-Russia relations.
Kyiv’s desire to participate in any ceasefire negotiations stems, in part, from the possibility of Trump being swayed by Putin.
Through his envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump has also proposed a trilateral meeting involving Putin and Zelensky. However, the Russian president has dismissed these suggestions, citing the conditions for a meeting as premature.
Consequently, some in Ukraine fear that a Trump-Putin meeting could result in the US president conceding to Putin’s demands.
Ukrainian MP Iryna Herashchenko stated that demands for territorial concessions by Ukraine appear increasingly likely and that being excluded from the negotiating table would be “very dangerous” for Kyiv.
“Ukraine is not afraid of meetings and expects the same bold approach from the Russian side,” Zelensky said on Thursday.
However, the chasm between Russia and Ukraine remains.
Even if the Kremlin eventually agrees to a trilateral meeting, Moscow’s demands for a ceasefire have proven so unyielding that the potential outcomes of bringing Zelensky and Putin together remain uncertain.
Follow the twists and turns of Trump’s second term with North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher’s weekly US Politics Unspun newsletter. Readers in the UK can sign up here. Those outside the UK can sign up here.
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