“Frankly, it’s all rather disheartening,” confessed a Labour MP, previously a staunch government supporter, upon returning to Parliament Tuesday morning.
The depth and breadth of anger amongst Labour MPs following the party’s disappointing local election results was striking, and this discontent showed no sign of abating over the weekend.
The primary target of this widespread anger—and it is indeed rage—is the means-testing of the winter fuel allowance.
This policy’s negative impact on Labour’s electoral performance isn’t merely the opinion of dissenting MPs; cabinet ministers share this assessment.
Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting conceded on Breakfast: “I won’t insult your viewers by pretending the winter fuel allowance wasn’t a recurring issue on the doorstep. It was, and many people expressed dissatisfaction.”
Government sources spent Tuesday morning refuting suggestions of a policy review, and by the afternoon, their stance was firm.
“There will be no change to government policy,” declared the Prime Minister’s official spokesperson.
This will disappoint Labour MPs who believed reversing the winter fuel policy would clearly signal, as the Prime Minister stated Friday, that he “understands” the situation.
Others closer to the government questioned whether a policy change at this juncture would yield any political benefit, believing the damage is already done.
Given the categorical denial regarding the winter fuel allowance, the debate surrounding the government’s welfare reforms is perhaps more pertinent.
Amendments to Personal Independence Payment (PIP) eligibility, announced in March, require parliamentary approval. A House of Commons vote is expected next month.
Given Sir Keir’s substantial majority, the government is unlikely to lose this vote. However, it could become a focal point for broader discontent with the government’s direction.
One Labour MP cited winter fuel and PIP as key factors in Labour’s poor performance last week, emphasizing PIP’s more serious impact.
“While winter fuel complaints often came from infrequent or non-Labour voters, PIP affected our core supporters.”
Even Labour MPs expressing frustration rather than anger over the party’s declining support over the past ten months believe Sir Keir and his team need to improve communication with their parliamentary colleagues.
“Goodwill remains,” one stated. “But without a clear strategic direction, the PLP [Parliamentary Labour Party] will become unmanageable.”
Pat McFadden, a senior cabinet minister and director of Labour’s successful 2024 general election campaign, will present an analysis of the local election results to MPs Wednesday evening.
Questions regarding the party’s strategic direction will be paramount. While Reform UK was the main beneficiary of Labour’s losses, many within Labour are equally concerned about losing votes to progressive parties like the Greens.
Many observe that in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, the Conservative vote more than halved, partly due to defections to Labour to counter Reform. The Green vote, however, increased slightly.
“We failed to consolidate the progressive vote—a crucial task for the general election,” a government source noted.
More measured voices believe that in a general election pitting Sir Keir against Nigel Farage, left-leaning voters would likely unite behind Labour.
While the next general election is still years away, upcoming events could prove significant.
The May 19 UK-EU summit presents an opportunity to advance the European “reset” the Prime Minister has championed for the past year.
Party strategists believe a clear demonstration of the Prime Minister’s commitment to closer EU ties would boost progressive support.
This could also address other issues. Improved economic growth forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) resulting from stronger EU ties would provide Rachel Reeves with more funds for this autumn’s budget.
However, next week’s immigration white paper, detailing plans to reduce legal migration and improve the asylum system, precedes the EU summit.
The government views this as crucial for demonstrating a serious commitment to addressing voter concerns about immigration, while acknowledging it could present challenges for the progressive wing of Labour’s coalition.
“We must be forthright. We need to convince our supporters that enabling people smugglers to control the English Channel or allowing cheap foreign labor to undercut fair wages isn’t progressive,” stated a government source.
Once the anger subsides, many in the Labour Party acknowledge things could be worse.
Unlike the Conservatives, grappling with a potentially deeper malaise, Labour, in government, controls the levers of power.
“Conditions will significantly improve in the coming years,” a senior government source predicted. “Improving people’s financial well-being is essential.”
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