A component of a Soviet-era spacecraft, orbiting for over five decades, has likely re-entered Earth’s atmosphere, according to the European Space Agency (ESA).

Kosmos 482, launched in 1972 on a Venus mission, failed to escape Earth’s orbit, fragmenting into four pieces. These remnants have remained in orbit for more than fifty years.

The EU Space Surveillance and Tracking centre (SST) reported that one fragment, believed to be the lander, most likely re-entered the atmosphere around 06:16 GMT on Saturday.

The object’s fate—whether it burned up or impacted the ground—remains undetermined, as does its precise re-entry location.

Despite uncertainties, the likelihood of significant harm is low, given that 70% of Earth’s surface is ocean.

Stijn Lemmens, a senior ESA analyst, stated, “It’s much more likely that you win the lottery than that you get impacted by this piece of space debris.”

Kosmos 482’s lander, designed to withstand Venus’s harsh atmosphere, possessed a robust heat shield and structure, potentially enabling survival of uncontrolled atmospheric re-entry.

However, its parachute system, intended for Venus descent, is likely degraded after its prolonged exposure to space.

Mr. Lemmens clarified that atmospheric re-entry of human-made objects is frequent, occurring weekly for larger spacecraft and daily for smaller ones, with most burning up completely.

Notable past events include the 2022 re-entry of China’s Long March 5B booster over the Indian Ocean and the 2018 disintegration of the Tiangong-1 space station over the Pacific Ocean.^{1 2}

Kosmos 482 is now under close observation by international space agencies.

Mr. Lemmens advocates for future spacecraft designs that incorporate safe, controlled de-orbiting procedures, enabling precise landing predictions and mitigating risks to populations and the environment.

A component of a Soviet-era spacecraft, orbiting Earth for over five decades, has likely re-entered the atmosphere, according to the European Space Agency (ESA).

Kosmos 482, launched in 1972 on a Venus mission, failed to escape Earth’s orbit, fragmenting into four pieces. The EU Space Surveillance and Tracking centre (SST) reports that one fragment, possibly the lander, most likely re-entered the atmosphere around 06:16 GMT (07:16 BST) on Saturday.

The exact location of re-entry and whether the object survived atmospheric burning remain unknown. However, given that 70% of Earth is ocean, the likelihood of significant damage is low.

Stijn Lemmens, a senior ESA analyst, stated that the probability of impact from such debris is statistically insignificant. Kosmos 482’s lander, designed to withstand Venus’s atmospheric conditions, possessed a robust heat shield, potentially enabling survival of uncontrolled atmospheric entry. However, its parachute system, likely degraded after 50 years, may have reduced its effectiveness.

Mr. Lemmens highlighted the frequent re-entry of human-made objects, ranging from daily occurrences for smaller objects to weekly events for larger spacecraft. Most burn up completely.

Notable previous events include the 2022 re-entry of China’s Long March 5B booster over the Indian Ocean and the 2018 mostly-incinerated re-entry of the Tiangong-1 space station over the Pacific.¹²

Kosmos 482 is under close monitoring by international space agencies. Mr. Lemmens advocates for future spacecraft designs that facilitate safe, controlled re-entries, enabling precise landing predictions, minimizing risk to populated areas, and mitigating environmental impact.

A component of a Soviet-era spacecraft, orbiting Earth for over five decades, has likely re-entered the atmosphere, according to the European Space Agency (ESA).

Kosmos 482, launched in 1972 on a Venus mission, failed to escape Earth’s orbit and fragmented into four pieces. These fragments have remained in orbit for more than 50 years.

The EU Space Surveillance and Tracking centre (SST) reported that one fragment, potentially the lander, most likely re-entered the atmosphere around 06:16 GMT on Saturday.

The precise location of re-entry and whether the object impacted the ground or completely burned up remain uncertain.

While details are limited, the probability of significant harm is low, given that approximately 70% of Earth’s surface is water.

Stijn Lemmens, a senior ESA analyst, stated that “the chances of being impacted by this space debris are far lower than winning the lottery.”

Kosmos 482’s lander capsule, designed to withstand the extreme conditions of Venus’s atmosphere, possessed a robust heat shield, potentially allowing survival of uncontrolled atmospheric re-entry.

However, its parachute system, intended for the Venus descent, is likely degraded after its prolonged space exposure.

Mr. Lemmens emphasized the frequent occurrence of human-made object re-entry, ranging from daily for smaller objects to weekly for larger spacecraft. Most objects typically burn up completely.

Previous notable examples include the 2022 re-entry of China’s Long March 5B booster over the Indian Ocean and the 2018 largely-incinerated Tiangong-1 space station over the Pacific.

Kosmos 482 is currently under close observation by international space agencies.

Mr. Lemmens advocated for future spacecraft designs incorporating safe, controlled re-entry capabilities for precise landing prediction, minimizing risk to populated areas and the environment.

This approach would help manage the environmental impact of space debris and ensure the safety of people and property.