Over the course of the five-week joint US-Israeli military action against Iran, President Donald Trump has consistently employed deadlines, demands, and threats. However, rarely have these been as explicitly defined as they are now.
According to the President, a new series of strikes targeting Iran are imminent and will inflict severe damage, commencing at 8:00 PM Washington DC time on Tuesday (00:00 GMT on Wednesday). Within a four-hour timeframe, every bridge and power plant throughout the nation will be “decimated,” he stated.
“Very little is off-limits,” Trump declared on Monday.
To avert this outcome, the President insists that Iran must agree to a deal “that’s acceptable to me,” which would include “free traffic of oil” through the Strait of Hormuz.
With the deadline rapidly approaching, there has been minimal indication that Iran is prepared to concede to Trump’s ultimatum. They have rejected a temporary ceasefire and have issued their own set of demands, which a US official has characterized as “maximalist.”
This places the American president in a precarious situation. Absent an agreement, Trump faces the option of extending his deadline, a move he has already made four times in the last three weeks.
However, retracting the detailed threats, punctuated by strong language and dire warnings, could erode his credibility as the conflict persists.
It is plausible that Iran, and the broader international community, could conclude that despite America’s demonstrable military might and tactical prowess – exemplified by this weekend’s intricate operation to rescue two downed airmen within Iranian territory – its negotiating position is not as strong as it appears.
“We won,” Trump asserted during his press conference on Monday afternoon. “They are militarily defeated. The only thing they have is the psychology of: ‘Oh, we’re going to drop a couple of mines in the water’.”
That “psychology” – the capacity to impede oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz using drones, missiles, and mines – may constitute a more formidable Iranian asset than the US has been willing to acknowledge.
During Monday’s press conference, Trump highlighted American military precision as demonstrated in last year’s “Midnight Hammer” bombing raid on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January, and this weekend’s rescue mission.
He and his national security team celebrated the latter effort – which involved the coordination of hundreds of aircraft, elite military personnel, misdirection tactics, and technological sophistication. However, while remarkable, the effort was aimed at averting what Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth conceded was a “potential tragedy.”
Even with the potential tragedy averted, the successful rescue underscored the ongoing risks faced by American forces in Iran. The president may be realizing that American military power has its limitations.
“We can bomb the hell out of them,” he said. “We can knock them for a loop. But to close the Strait, all you need is one terrorist.”
The alternative is for Trump to act on his threats. He stated on multiple occasions on Monday that this was a course he did not wish to pursue.
While Trump suggested that the Iranian people were willing to endure the ongoing US military campaign – and, in fact, welcomed the bombs falling on their cities – he also acknowledged that anything the US destroys now would eventually have to be rebuilt and that the US might ultimately contribute to that rebuilding effort.
“Do I want to destroy their infrastructure? No,” he said. “Right now, if we leave today, it will take them 20 years to rebuild their country.”
He added that if he followed through with his bombing threats, the rebuilding effort would take a century.
While not quite the “stone age” he has warned Iran would be reduced to, an ensuing humanitarian crisis – including the regional impact of the “crushing” retaliation that Iran has promised – could be devastating.
Even at this late stage, however, Trump continues to express hope for a breakthrough.
“We have an active, willing participant on the other side,” he said. “They would like to be able to make a deal. I can’t say any more than that.”
With the stakes so high, the president’s reticence is notable. He maintains that he has a plan – “every single thing has been thought out by all of us”, he stated on Monday – but he remains unwilling to disclose its details.
This could indicate that, behind the scenes, negotiations are further advanced than publicly acknowledged. Alternatively, it could be a combination of strategic posturing and wishful thinking.
“They have till tomorrow,” Trump said. “We’ll see what happens. I believe they’re negotiating in good faith. I guess we’ll find out.”
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The US president wants Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy route, before his Tuesday deadline.
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