Central to the strategy underpinning the Prime Minister’s visit to China this week is what some analysts are terming China’s “looking up economy.”
This concept alludes to the highly centralized nature of the Chinese state, where the Communist Party maintains a pervasive presence. Consequently, for substantial change to occur, directives from the highest levels must be unequivocally clear, potentially leading to significant shifts in outlook.
Downing Street anticipates that Sir Keir Starmer’s three-day visit, encompassing meetings with President Xi and Premier Li in Beijing, followed by a trip to Shanghai, will garner considerable attention.
The visit has been marked by extensive engagement from both political and corporate entities.
Early indications suggest a positive reception from Sir Keir’s perspective.
According to our China correspondent Laura Bicker, Chinese state media, the official voice of the Communist Party, dedicated 18 minutes of its flagship 30-minute evening news broadcast to discussing the Prime Minister’s visit on the day of his meeting with the President.
Furthermore, sporting, cultural, and business organizations accompanying the Prime Minister express hope that this visit signifies a pivotal moment, unlocking new opportunities.
One representative emphasized the importance of sustained engagement, stating, “As long as this isn’t a one-off.” A sentiment echoed by the Prime Minister’s official spokesperson, who affirmed that this visit is not intended as an isolated event.
China, in turn, can capitalize on its position as a key global player, evident in the steady stream of visits from Western leaders.
French President Emmanuel Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney have both visited recently.
Carney was to find out shortly afterwards how such a visit can go down in the White House if President Donald Trump reckons a country is considering getting too close to Beijing. The short answer: not very well.
Sir Keir had his own, more minor taste of that, when President Trump said it was “very dangerous” for the UK to do business with China.
According to the rhetorical Richter scale of presidential admonishments, the prime minister’s team saw this as pretty minor, not least because Trump later described Xi as a “friend”.
Sir Keir added, in an interview, that “it would be foolhardy to simply say we would ignore” China.
Over the past few days of extensive travel and demanding schedules, I have observed a strong conviction in the Prime Minister’s stance on China. He expressed clear disapproval of the eight-year gap since the last visit by a predecessor, Theresa May, in 2018.
He considers these years as lost opportunities and aims to compensate for the delay. He also highlights a divergence from the Conservative Party, noting that Tory leader Kemi Badenoch stated to the BBC that she would not have undertaken this trip were she currently Prime Minister.
Therefore, what conclusions can we draw from Sir Keir’s achievements?
There has been extensive engagement and positive rhetoric, both essential components of the “looking up economy” previously mentioned.
Concrete agreements have also been reached, including the halving of tariffs, or import taxes, on whisky sold by the UK to China and the removal of sanctions imposed on some parliamentarians back in 2021.
Additionally, a proposal was announced, though not yet implemented, by the Prime Minister to eliminate visa requirements for British visitors to China staying under 30 days. However, the Chinese government stated that this matter is merely under “active consideration.”
Sir Keir affirmed to me that the change will occur, but acknowledged the absence of an agreed-upon start date, stating, “We are making progress.”
Ministers and officials involved in the intricate negotiations express optimism for a gradual increase in benefits associated with a closer, more cordial relationship.
However, this warming relationship has prompted unease among some observers, who argue that China is fundamentally untrustworthy.
They cite human rights violations, such as the situation of the Uyghurs, as well as the imprisonment in Hong Kong of Jimmy Lai, a pro-democracy media figure.
Concerns also extend to Chinese cyber attacks and an MI5 alert issued to parliament before Christmas regarding Chinese espionage in Westminster.
Security Minister Dan Jarvis characterized this as a “covert and calculated attempt by China to interfere with our sovereign affairs.”
Illustrating this atmosphere of distrust, all individuals encountered during this trip, from government officials to corporate and cultural representatives and journalists, have adopted heightened electronic security measures, surpassing those taken on any previous trip. Most are utilizing temporary phone numbers, and many have left their personal digital devices at home.
This forms a complex backdrop for a relationship undergoing a process of warming.
Having observed the Prime Minister both domestically and internationally throughout his nearly 19 months in office, it is evident that he has articulated a foreign policy vision and is actively pursuing it through concrete actions and visits.
“We have to engage with this volatile world” is how he summarised his approach. “I don’t think I have known a time when what is happening internationally is impacting what is going on back home so directly.”
He is stung and irritated by the label lobbed at him by critics who describe him as “never here Keir” because of the number of foreign trips he does.
He has notably tried to push back on this trip, repeatedly talking about how events overseas have a bearing on the cost of living at home. He even made a reference to prices in the supermarkets when he was talking to President Xi in the Great Hall of the People.
Sir Keir has sought a close relationship with President Trump and secured it. For now at least. This is grounded in being judicious in his public remarks and only criticising the president when he thinks it is absolutely essential, such as recently over Greenland and the British troops killed and injured in Afghanistan.
He describes the UK as having “reset” its relationship with the European Union post-Brexit and has done a trade deal with India. And now, here he is in China.
Inevitably, if he leans too far in one direction, it limits his options in another. Rejoin the EU’s customs union, and those trade deals with others would be gone, as he points out to his Labour colleagues who have called for just that.
Be seen to get too close to China, and prepare for the verbal hairdryer from the White House.
The trade-offs are legion.
“I’m a pragmatist, a British pragmatist, applying common sense,” the prime minister told us on the plane, saying his desire was to “make Britain face outwards again.”
Outwards and in multiple directions is his approach, moving incrementally.
Sign up for our Politics Essential newsletter to keep up with the inner workings of Westminster and beyond.
Import taxes on Scotch whisky will be halved from 10% to 5% – a deal the UK government said would be worth £250m to the UK’s economy.
Sir Keir Starmer’s visit to China brought agreements on visas, services, healthcare, green tech and finance.
It comes as Sir Keir Starmer visits Beijing – the first UK prime minister to do so in eight years.
The prime minister seeks to strengthen ties with China but faces fierce criticism from opponents at home.
Sir Keir Starmer is one of a number of world leaders heading to Beijing