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A series of political events, complex and interconnected, are currently unfolding.
Should these events align favorably, Andy Burnham could potentially emerge as a contender for Prime Minister.
However, it is crucial to avoid premature conclusions.
The unfolding scenario is far from certain, and unexpected developments could easily alter the trajectory.
Significant hurdles stand between the Mayor of Greater Manchester and a return to Westminster as a Member of Parliament – a necessary step to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for leadership of the Labour Party.
Initially, Mr. Burnham must decide whether he wishes to pursue this path.
A potential advantage is the proximity of the contest to his established base in Greater Manchester.
Furthermore, the vacancy arises due to the resignation of an MP for health reasons, mitigating potential accusations of political maneuvering.
However, should Mr. Burnham declare his intention to run, he requires permission from the Labour Party’s National Executive Committee.
According to the party’s official regulations, the NEC must grant “express permission” before a directly-elected mayor can seek nomination as a Labour candidate for parliamentary elections.
The party could deny permission, citing the expense and potential political challenges of a mayoral by-election.
Moreover, some within the Labour Party are reportedly hesitant about his return to Westminster, citing concerns over his perceived ambition for the leadership.
Conversely, others in the Labour movement believe he could revitalize a party and government facing significant challenges.
If Mr. Burnham is denied permission, what course of action will he take?
His existing platform and profile provide him with ample opportunity to challenge the Prime Minister’s agenda.
And what if he does decide to stand? The subsequent by-election would undoubtedly garner considerable attention.
While Andrew Gwynne secured a comfortable victory in Gorton and Denton during the last general election, Labour’s approval ratings have since declined.
Reform UK and the Green Party finished second and third respectively in the last election, and are anticipated to be more competitive in this upcoming contest.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has already expressed enthusiasm for the impending by-election.
“This by-election is by no means a certainty for Labour, the left-wing Greens will split their vote, and we will be the challenger. We will give it our all,” he stated.
Even with Mr. Burnham as the Labour candidate, his return to Westminster is not guaranteed.
However, this opportunity might represent his best chance to return to Parliament, contesting a seat within his region, amidst a vulnerable Prime Minister and internal discussions within the Labour Party regarding potential leadership replacements.
Finally, let us consider the scenario in which he secures the Labour nomination and wins the by-election.
It is plausible that his victory could coincide with setbacks for Labour in elections in Scotland and Wales, as well as in local elections throughout England in May.
Consequently, he could arrive in the House of Commons at a time when the Prime Minister faces considerable challenges. Would this position him as a potential challenger for the Labour leadership, alongside other contenders?
As previously stated, this political landscape is complex and multifaceted. It has the potential to become a prominent political spectacle in the coming months.
Greater Manchester MP Andrew Gwynne says he is stepping down due to “significant ill health”.
Conservative MP Greg Smith has condemned the decision as “deeply unfair” to vulnerable children.
Behind the scenes, Sir Keir had been coming under greater pressure to change his approach to the president.
The MPs says the UK “risks being left behind” if it does not adopt a ban similar to one in Australia.
Most wanting a delay are Labour-led but three are Tory councils and one is a Lib Dem authority.
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