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Iran is experiencing a severe internet shutdown, now entering its tenth day, impacting an estimated 92 million citizens. The disruption extends to phone and text messaging services.
Reports indicate the Iranian government initiated the shutdown on January 8th, ostensibly to suppress dissent and prevent international observation of its response to ongoing protests.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi attributed the internet restrictions to what he characterized as “terrorist operations” directed from abroad.
While the government has not specified a timeline for restoring internet access, emerging reports suggest potential plans for a permanent restriction.
On January 15th, IranWire reported that government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani informed journalists that international web access would remain unavailable until at least the Iranian New Year in late March.
FilterWatch, an internet freedom monitoring organization, suggests the government is rapidly implementing new systems aimed at severing Iran’s connection to the global internet.
“There should be no expectation of reopening international internet access, and even afterwards, users’ access to international internet will never return to its previous form,” FilterWatch stated, citing unnamed government sources.
The BBC has not independently verified these reports or the specific implementation timeline. However, journalists with BBC Persian have also indicated they were informed that internet access would not be restored in the immediate future.
Iran has historically maintained strict internet controls, blocking most Western social media applications and platforms, as well as external news websites like BBC News.
Despite these restrictions, many individuals have circumvented blocks to access popular applications like Instagram through the use of Virtual Private Networks (VPNs).
Access Now, an internet freedom advocacy group, asserts that Iran has consistently employed internet shutdowns to conceal instances of mass violence and suppress protests, as evidenced by nationwide shutdowns during protests in November 2019 and September 2022.
A shutdown was also enacted during the Iran-Israel conflict in June 2025.
The current blackout marks the longest duration of any previous shutdown.
In a public statement, Access Now emphasized the critical need for a full restoration of internet access.
“Restricting access to these essential services not only endanger lives but embolden authorities to conceal and evade accountability for human rights abuses,” the organization stated.
Reports indicate the shutdown is significantly impacting livelihoods in Iran, particularly affecting e-commerce.
As of January 18th, the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) estimates that over 3,300 confirmed protester deaths have been recorded, with over 4,380 cases under review. The agency also reports approximately 24,266 arrests across 187 cities.
The actual figures for fatalities and detentions are believed to be considerably higher, but limited access hinders independent verification.
FilterWatch suggests the current shutdown signals the beginning of intensified “digital isolation” and heightened surveillance of online activity.
Amir Rashidi, director of cyber security and digital rights at the Miaan Group, which operates FilterWatch, stated to the BBC that authorities appear to be transitioning to a tiered system where access to the global internet would require prior approval.
He anticipates that access will be granted through a registration and vetting process, noting the technical infrastructure for such a system has been in place for several years.
According to FilterWatch, these plans are not being publicly discussed, with critical decisions increasingly concentrated within security bodies rather than civilian ministries.
Protecting Iran from cyber attacks, which have been prevalent and disruptive in recent years, may also be a factor motivating these stringent measures.
However, analysts caution that internal power dynamics, as well as broader economic and technical pressures, may impede full implementation or lead to uneven application of these plans.
Amir Rashidi emphasizes that risks to internet providers, along with users’ ability to adapt or migrate to alternative platforms, could further complicate implementation.
Should Iran proceed with the reported plans, it would mirror similar systems in place in Russia and China.
China is a global leader in internet control, enforcing extensive state censorship over online discourse and restricting access to external content.
The Great Firewall of China blocks citizens from accessing a significant portion of the global internet. Western applications like Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube are inaccessible without VPNs, which are becoming increasingly difficult to use.
In 2019, Russia initiated testing for a system comparable to China’s, known as Ru-net.
However, unlike China, which integrated state control into its internet infrastructure from its inception, Russia is retrofitting state control into existing, complex systems.
Russia is pursuing a more radical approach than China, planning to disconnect itself from the World Wide Web through a “kill switch,” ostensibly to be activated during times of crisis.
This system would facilitate internal internet traffic while preventing external communication, effectively creating a digital border. The system remains under development and has yet to be fully tested.
If these reports are accurate, Iran’s plans suggest a blend of Chinese and Russian models of permanent internet control.
“In Iran there seems to be a move to isolate everyone from any electronic access, unless approved by the government,” stated Prof Alan Woodward, a computer security expert from Surrey University in the UK, after reviewing reports of Iran’s plans.
He posits that the Iranian regime has likely advanced its long-term plans, leveraging the current blackout as an opportunity to implement technical changes and orders while connectivity is disrupted.
Amir Rashidi contends that the primary obstacle is now political rather than technical, arguing that the full implementation of these systems hinges on political will.
The emergence of Starlink and other internet-from-space services, known as Low Earth Orbit (LEO) systems, has also complicated internet control efforts in Iran during the protests.
LEO internet services enable users to bypass censorship and shutdowns by connecting via satellite.
While the government has managed to jam and interfere with some Starlink users, the BBC has confirmed that other terminals remain operational following firmware updates designed to circumvent government blocking attempts.
The service, owned by Elon Musk, has also waived subscription fees for Iranian users.
Despite the increasing prevalence of tools employed by repressive regimes, Woodward remains cautiously optimistic about the future of internet freedom.
He points to advances in LEO technology and the increasing capacity of smartphones to utilize satellites for communication, including SOS messages, during internet outages.
Emerging applications that employ Bluetooth-based mesh networks can also establish connectivity in areas lacking traditional infrastructure.
“Its almost inevitable that internet access will be truly universal eventually but it’ll always be cat and mouse for repressive regimes”, Woodward concludes.
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