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On Wednesday afternoon, within the oak-paneled confines of a parliamentary room, Robert Jenrick convened with Kemi Badenoch and fellow members of the Conservative shadow cabinet to discuss foreign policy.
“He appeared genuinely positive and upbeat,” recounted one attendee.
However, within 24 hours, a stunning leak originating from Jenrick’s own Commons office precipitated his expulsion from the party he had been a part of since his teenage years, leading to his decision to align with Reform, its principal rival.
For months, Jenrick had been under close scrutiny amid defection rumors, with Badenoch’s team detecting concerning indicators behind the scenes.
“We were on high alert,” a senior Conservative official stated. “We had been receiving information from multiple sources for quite some time suggesting he was exploring other options. We were aware of at least one evening meeting he had with Farage in December.”
In reality, Jenrick had engaged in numerous clandestine discussions with Reform figures over a four-month period, including the party’s leader.
“There were extensive conversations, including several one-on-one meetings with Nigel,” disclosed a Farage ally.
Whether Jenrick was offered a prominent cabinet position in a potential future Reform government remains a point of speculation. “Nothing was offered,” a senior Reform source insisted. “Absolutely nothing.”
As Badenoch concluded her shadow cabinet meeting at 17:00 GMT on Wednesday, she was presented with what her advisors immediately recognized as a pivotal leak.
A source with access to Jenrick’s office had provided the Tory leadership with a draft of Jenrick’s secret defection speech, which contained scathing criticisms of shadow cabinet ministers.
While Jenrick’s allies declined to comment on the identity of the alleged leaker, they did not dispute the document’s origin within his inner circle.
However, they refuted claims that the MP had been careless with the draft: “The speech never left Rob’s office. The suggestion that it was left unattended is false.”
Badenoch promptly assembled her closest advisors, including Conservative chief whip Rebecca Harris and several other shadow cabinet ministers.
“My immediate reaction was that it was an act of treachery and disloyalty,” stated one of those consulted by Badenoch in her parliamentary office.
“The temptation in such situations is to remain passive and hope the issue resolves itself, or to delay action. But that would have been a dereliction of duty, and Kemi is not one to shirk responsibility.”
The Conservative leader determined that swift action was imperative.
On Thursday, Badenoch initiated her day before dawn, making the definitive decision to dismiss Jenrick. She recorded a video from her home computer, announcing his removal from the shadow cabinet and suspension from the Conservative Party.
She then departed to catch a flight to Scotland.
Jenrick’s allies reported that he was in his Westminster office later that morning when he received a call from Tory chief whip Rebecca Harris.
She informed him of the party’s findings. He asserted his innocence and abruptly ended the call. Within minutes, Badenoch’s team released her video.
Shortly thereafter, Jenrick had a brief conversation with Nigel Farage. “It was brief,” a Reform source stated. They said, “We’re on: let’s do it today.”
Jenrick’s allies contend that his defection represents the most significant moment of his career, and he feels “liberated” to have concluded it.
“With minimal notice and under immense pressure, he delivered a speech and Q&A session to the media incredibly well,” one ally remarked. “There were no missteps.”
“I believe it neutralizes a significant Tory attack—that Reform is a one-man band and not serious. Because Rob is very serious.”
Badenoch’s supporters argue that her improved performance in prime minister’s questions and in opinion polls in recent months meant Jenrick’s chances of unseating her as Tory leader were diminishing rapidly.
“It’s not because Kemi is failing that he’s done this. It’s because she’s succeeding,” one member of the shadow cabinet stated.
“It’s made it more difficult to get the top job. He has no chance of being leader before 2029. So why stay?”
The fact that Jenrick had drafted a complete defection speech strongly suggests his decision had been made prior to Badenoch’s unexpected move.
“Rob had made up his mind,” a person close to him stated. “It was a matter of timing.”
They indicated that he had grown increasingly frustrated after being reprimanded by colleagues both for speaking out about grooming gangs and for criticizing the UK’s decision to grant citizenship to British-Egyptian dissident Alaa Abd El Fattah—a decision made under the Conservatives.
The breaking point appears to have been a disagreement during a shadow cabinet away-day last Thursday regarding whether Britain was broken.
“He was very odd at the away day,” one attendee said. “His body language was withdrawn, his chair was pushed back from the table, and he was taking extensive notes.”
According to Jenrick’s account, the shadow cabinet was asked if they believed Britain was broken. He responded affirmatively. Some agreed but argued, “We can’t say that because it implies we broke it.”
If that away-day marked a turning point in the political trajectory of Robert Jenrick and the right wing of British politics, it seems appropriate that the meeting was held at a venue overlooking the Tower of London.
“It’s a traditional home of traitors,” joked one attendee. “Which we didn’t realize at the time.”
The former Conservative minister and Scottish Tory treasurer has been officially unveiled by Nigel Farage.
Robert Jenrick was sacked by the Tory party on Thursday, and later announced he was joining Reform.
A banker from Greenock who joined the House of Lords in 2021, Malcolm Offord has made much of a relatively short political career.
Labour came third in the Caerphilly by-election, its first parliamentary defeat in the area for 100 years.
It was Kemi Badenoch’s belief that Robert Jenrick was about to make the ultimate leap to the right which has plunged the Conservative Party into turmoil.
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