The government has declined to refute reports suggesting that achieving “war ready” status for Britain’s armed forces will necessitate significantly more funding than currently allocated.
According to reports in The Times and The Sun, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) estimates a £28 billion shortfall over the next four years to meet projected expenses.
The MoD’s investment plan has been subject to delays, with reports indicating that Sir Keir Starmer has requested a revision of the proposals.
Originally slated for completion in autumn of the previous year, the plan is now anticipated to be released in the spring.
The document is expected to outline the funding strategy for new equipment and defence infrastructure over the next decade, following a comprehensive review of Britain’s capabilities published in June of last year.
The review committed billions in additional spending for increased ammunition, next-generation fast jets, drones, and new attack submarines, as ministers pledged to transition the UK towards “war-fighting readiness.”
Sources indicate that the £28 billion projected deficit was identified by MoD officials in an internal assessment conducted last year.
Sir Richard Knighton, the chief of the defence staff, reportedly presented the forecast to Sir Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves during a meeting at Downing Street prior to Christmas.
The prime minister’s spokesperson refrained from commenting on “specific meetings” but acknowledged the increased demands on the armed forces, including a potential deployment to Ukraine to oversee any agreement aimed at ending the conflict with Russia.
When pressed multiple times to deny the existence of a £28 billion funding gap, the spokesperson reiterated the spending commitments already announced by the government.
Under spending plans finalized last year, the MoD’s budget is set to increase by 3.6% in real terms by 2029.
The increase is primarily allocated to the long-term investment budget, which funds new military equipment, rather than the day-to-day budget covering administrative costs and salaries.
The Labour party has pledged to raise overall defence spending from 2.3% to 2.5% of national income by 2027, estimated to cost an additional £6 billion per year.
They have further committed to increasing it to 3.5% by 2035, aligning with a pledge made by NATO countries at a summit last year.
This is not the first instance of warnings regarding the MoD’s ability to finance its spending obligations.
The investment plan is intended to replace the decade-long “equipment plans” published annually until 2022, when the department suspended publication to assess the impact of “extraordinary inflation” on its plans.
An analysis released by the department in December 2023, under the previous government, revealed that the MoD’s most recent equipment plan was projected to exceed its budget by £16.9 billion.
A report by MPs published the following year attributed the majority of that shortfall to escalating costs associated with maintaining the UK’s nuclear weapons system, in addition to inflation.
The delay in the investment plan has also postponed the release of a separate document detailing yet-to-be-specified “productivity savings” within the department, totaling £6 billion between now and 2029.
An MoD spokesperson stated that the department is working “flat out” to finalize the investment plan, adding that Labour inherited an “underfunded defence programme” from the previous government.
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