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The recent killing of a Hindu man amidst violent protests in Bangladesh has intensified the already delicate relationship between Dhaka and Delhi.
As the neighboring nations exchange accusations of destabilizing their bilateral ties, questions are being raised about whether the historically close relationship is irreparably damaged.
The incident has triggered protests in India by Hindu nationalist groups. Dipu Chandra Das, 27, a member of Bangladesh’s Hindu minority, was reportedly accused of blasphemy and fatally beaten by a mob last week in Mymensingh, northern Bangladesh.
The lynching occurred hours before violent protests erupted over the murder of Sharif Osman Hadi, a prominent student leader, in Dhaka.
Hadi’s supporters allege that the primary suspect, purportedly linked to the Awami League – the party of deposed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina – fled to India, further exacerbating anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh. However, Bangladeshi police stated that there was no confirmation of the suspect’s departure.
In recent days, both South Asian nations have suspended visa services in several cities, including Delhi, and accused each other of failing to ensure adequate security for their respective diplomatic missions.
Both countries have also summoned each other’s high commissioners to address their security concerns.
“I sincerely hope tensions don’t escalate further on both sides,” Riva Ganguly Das, a former Indian high commissioner to Dhaka, told the BBC, adding that the “volatile situation” in Bangladesh made it difficult to predict which way things would go.
Anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh is not a recent phenomenon.
A segment of the Bangladeshi population has historically resented what they perceive as India’s overbearing influence, particularly during Hasina’s 15-year rule prior to her deposition in an uprising last year.
This resentment has grown since Hasina sought refuge in India, and Delhi has, thus far, declined to return her despite numerous requests from Dhaka.
Following Hadi’s killing, some young leaders are reported to have made provocative anti-India statements.
In recent weeks, Bangladeshi security forces have had to prevent protesters from marching towards the Indian High Commission in Dhaka.
Last week, a mob pelted the Indian Assistant High Commission building in Chittagong with stones, prompting condemnation from Delhi. Police later detained 12 individuals in connection with the incident, though they were subsequently released without charge.
Counter rallies have also taken place in India. Bangladesh has strongly objected to a protest by a Hindu group outside its diplomatic premises in Delhi, deeming it “unjustifiable.”
“I have not seen this kind of suspicion and mistrust between the two sides before,” Humayun Kabir, a former senior Bangladeshi diplomat, stated.
He added that both sides should protect each other’s diplomatic missions according to established norms.
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The brutal lynching of Das, a garment factory worker, has further inflamed tensions on the Indian side.
He was accused of insulting the Prophet Muhammad and was lynched by a mob, who subsequently tied his body to a tree and set it ablaze.
Videos of the killing circulated widely on social media, eliciting outrage on both sides of the border.
Bangladesh’s interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, stated that there was “no place for such violence in the new Bangladesh,” promising that all involved in the killing would be brought to justice.
Bangladeshi police report that they have arrested 12 individuals in connection with Das’s murder.
Analysts suggest that the killing has once again raised concerns regarding the safety of minorities and civil society activists in Bangladesh, with religious fundamentalists becoming increasingly assertive and intolerant following Hasina’s departure.
Radical Islamists have desecrated hundreds of Sufi shrines, attacked Hindus, prevented women from playing football in certain areas, and curtailed music and cultural events.
Human rights groups have also expressed growing concerns about the rise in mob violence in Bangladesh over the past year.
“Hardline elements of society now see themselves as the mainstream, and they don’t want to see pluralism or diversity of thought in the country,” Asif Bin Ali, a Bangladeshi political analyst, explained.
“These radical elements are dehumanizing people and institutions by setting a narrative that they are pro-India. That gives a green light to others on the ground to attack them.”
Many in Bangladesh suspect Islamist radicals were involved in the mob that vandalized and set fire to the offices of two Bangladeshi dailies – The Daily Star and Prothom Alo – and a cultural institution last week, accusing them of being pro-India.
Civil society activists in Bangladesh have criticized the interim administration for its failure to prevent the recent violence. Even before the protests, the interim government faced scrutiny for its struggles to maintain law and order and deliver results amidst the political turmoil.
Experts such as Ashok Swain argue that right-wing leaders on both sides are making provocative statements for their own gain, fueling tension and public anger.
“A large section of the Indian media is also playing up events in Bangladesh and portraying that the country is descending into communal chaos,” says Mr. Swain, a professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University in Sweden.
“People should realize that stability in Bangladesh is key to India’s security, particularly in the north-east,” he says.
Given the criticism leveled against the interim administration in Dhaka regarding its lack of control and legitimacy, there is broad consensus that an elected government would be better equipped to address Bangladesh’s domestic and foreign challenges.
The country is scheduled to hold elections on February 12, but until then, Yunus faces the difficult task of preventing further violence.
With Ms. Hasina’s Awami League barred from participating in the polls, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is widely expected to emerge as the winner.
However, Islamist political parties like Jamaat-e-Islami could pose a challenge to the BNP.
There are concerns that further violence could occur in the coming days as hardline religious parties exploit anti-India sentiments.
“The biggest victim of this anti-India politics is not India, it’s Bangladeshi citizens themselves – like secular minded individuals, centrists and minorities,” warns Asif Bin Ali.
He states that the current narrative suggests that anyone or any institution who criticizes fundamentalists can be “dehumanized by labelling them pro-India, and attacks on them can be justified.”
Policymakers in India are cognizant of the shifting dynamics in Bangladesh.
An Indian parliamentary panel has stated that developments in Bangladesh pose “the greatest strategic challenge” to Delhi since the country’s independence war in 1971.
Former Bangladeshi diplomats like Humayun Kabir believe that India should acknowledge the current reality and reach out to Bangladesh to rebuild trust.
“We are neighbors and inter-dependent,” Mr. Kabir emphasizes.
Delhi has already indicated its willingness to engage with an elected government in Bangladesh, potentially paving the way for a diplomatic reset.
Until then, experts on both sides caution that public anger must not be allowed to further strain bilateral ties.
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